Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Computer Hardware
Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 4.42 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $32.76 (Buy Zone). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Super Micro Computer, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.42 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives SMCI's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.7103 | 1.2 | 0.85 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.245 | 1.4 | 0.34 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0907 | 3.3 | 0.3 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.2707 | 0.6 | 1.36 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.5674 | 1.0 | 1.57 |
How has SMCI's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 8.8 | Safe |
| 2023 | 9.94 | Safe |
| 2024 | 5.5 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.42 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from SMCI's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Super Micro Computer, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $1.81 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (2Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $1.68 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $2.25 | 15 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 21.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 18.1x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $33.20 (15 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Super Micro Computer, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up SMCI's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is SMCI's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17.0% | — |
| 2023 | 33.8% | Rising |
| 2024 | 16.2% | Declining |
| 2025 | 11.5% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.0B | $15.0B | $5.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.0B | $1.2B | $0.3B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B | −$2.6B | −$0.5B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 11.1% | 13.8% | 15.4% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our SMCI analysis
SMCI earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.62. Revenue estimate: $12.45B. Our current Fair Value: $32.76 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
SMCI analyst consensus: 28% bullish (5 of 18 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 9 Hold, 2 Sell, 2 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $33.20 (13.8% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $32.76.
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI beat EPS estimates by 41.4%
Reported EPS: $0.69 vs estimate $0.49. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $32.76 (12.3% above current price).
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI missed EPS estimates by 10.1%
Reported EPS: $0.35 vs estimate $0.39. Our Fair Value of $32.76 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI missed EPS estimates by 6.6%
Reported EPS: $0.41 vs estimate $0.44. Our Fair Value of $32.76 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI beat EPS estimates by 3.8%
Reported EPS: $0.31 vs estimate $0.30. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $32.76 (12.3% above current price).
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI beat EPS estimates by 1.9%
Reported EPS: $0.60 vs estimate $0.59. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $32.76 (12.3% above current price).
SMCI missed EPS estimates by 1.9%
Reported EPS: $0.74 vs estimate $0.75. Our Fair Value of $32.76 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
SMCI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMCI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Super Micro Computer, Inc.
What is Super Micro Computer, Inc. stock price today?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) stock price is $29.18 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Super Micro Computer, Inc. do?
Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. It provides liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems. It also offers workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories.
What is Super Micro Computer, Inc. market cap?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. has a market capitalization of $17.52B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is SMCI in?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Computer Hardware industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol SMCI.
Is SMCI stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Super Micro Computer, Inc. trades 10.9% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $32.76
- Current Price: $29.18
- Valuation Zone: Buy Zone
What is SMCI stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 15 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Super Micro Computer, Inc. is $33.20, implying upside of 13.8% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $58.00
- Analyst Low Target: $15.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Super Micro Computer, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 88.7%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 9.3%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 21.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 32.7%
What are Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.0B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 11.1% | Declining |
What is SMCI's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 21.3x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 9.8x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 18.1x
How volatile is SMCI stock?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. has a beta of 1.63, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Super Micro Computer, Inc. have?
Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $4.11B
- Total Debt: $5.26B
- Net Cash Position: $-1.16B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. generated $103.5M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $549.0M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Super Micro Computer, Inc. pay a dividend?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 4.42, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Super Micro Computer, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is SMCI's return on equity (ROE)?
Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s return on equity is 13.2%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy SMCI stock?
SMCI shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol SMCI
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is SMCI a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Super Micro Computer, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Super Micro Computer, Inc.?
The current CEO of Super Micro Computer, Inc. is Mr. Charles Liang.
What is SMCI's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $1.37
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $2.99
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $2.25
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $2.99
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
SMCI analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings