Toast, Inc. (TOST) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Is Toast, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Toast, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 12.56 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $21.60 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 2.9/5 stars.
Could Toast, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 12.56 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives TOST's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.5405 | 1.2 | 0.65 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.4013 | 1.4 | -0.56 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0967 | 3.3 | 0.32 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 16.995 | 0.6 | 10.2 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.9564 | 1.0 | 1.96 |
How has TOST's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16.06 | Safe |
| 2023 | 14.51 | Safe |
| 2024 | 13.86 | Safe |
| 2025 | 12.56 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from TOST's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Toast, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $0.54 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (4Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $0.03 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $1.29 | 24 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 52.6x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $36.42 (24 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Toast, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.9/5.
What makes up TOST's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is TOST's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -35.0% | — |
| 2023 | -24.0% | Rising |
| 2024 | 4.0% | Rising |
| 2025 | 14.3% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Toast, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Toast, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.2B | $5.0B | $2.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.3B | $0.0B | −$0.3B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.6B | $0.3B | −$0.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 25.9% | 24.0% | 18.7% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our TOST analysis
TOST earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.27. Revenue estimate: $1.63B. Our current Fair Value: $21.60 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
TOST analyst consensus: 64% bullish (18 of 28 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, 10 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $36.42 (23.6% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $21.60.
TOST beat EPS estimates by 12.9%
Reported EPS: $0.27 vs estimate $0.24. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $21.60 (26.7% below current price).
TOST beat EPS estimates by 19.6%
Reported EPS: $0.28 vs estimate $0.23. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $21.60 (26.7% below current price).
TOST beat EPS estimates by 12.0%
Reported EPS: $0.25 vs estimate $0.22. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $21.60 (26.7% below current price).
TOST beat EPS estimates by 9.6%
Reported EPS: $0.20 vs estimate $0.18. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $21.60 (26.7% below current price).
TOST missed EPS estimates by 14.0%
Reported EPS: $0.05 vs estimate $0.06. Our Fair Value of $21.60 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
Common questions about Toast, Inc.
What is Toast, Inc. stock price today?
Toast, Inc. (TOST) stock price is $29.46 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Toast, Inc. do?
Toast, Inc. operates a cloud-based digital technology platform for the restaurant industry in the United States, Ireland, India, and internationally. It offers a platform of software-as-a-service for restaurant operations and point of sale, such as Toast POS; Toast IQ, a conversational artificial intelligence; vendor management; multi-location management; kitchen display system; online ordering and delivery.
What is Toast, Inc. market cap?
Toast, Inc. has a market capitalization of $17.35B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is TOST in?
Toast, Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Software - Infrastructure industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol TOST.
Is TOST stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Toast, Inc. trades 36.4% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $21.60
- Current Price: $29.46
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is TOST stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 24 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Toast, Inc. is $36.42, implying upside of 23.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $51.00
- Analyst Low Target: $26.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Toast, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Toast, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 20.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 27.1%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 17.8%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 28.6%
What are Toast, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.3B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.6B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 25.9% | Rising |
What is TOST's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 52.6x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 17.6x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is TOST stock?
Toast, Inc. has a beta of 1.90, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Toast, Inc. have?
Toast, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.99B
- Total Debt: $20.0M
- Net Cash Position: $1.97B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Toast, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Toast, Inc. generated $580.6M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $661.0M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Toast, Inc. pay a dividend?
Toast, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Toast, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Toast, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 12.56, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Toast, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Toast, Inc. scores 2.9/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is TOST's return on equity (ROE)?
Toast, Inc.'s return on equity is 18.6%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy TOST stock?
TOST shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol TOST
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is TOST a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Toast, Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Toast, Inc.?
The current CEO of Toast, Inc. is Mr. Aman Narang.
What is TOST's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $0.56
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $1.67
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $1.29
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $1.66
Other Technology companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
TOST analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings