NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Semiconductors
Is NVIDIA Corporation a safe investment right now?
NVIDIA Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 64.49 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $220.43 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could NVIDIA Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 64.49 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives NVDA's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.4518 | 1.2 | 0.54 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.7107 | 1.4 | 0.99 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.6852 | 3.3 | 2.26 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 99.4095 | 0.6 | 59.65 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.0442 | 1.0 | 1.04 |
How has NVDA's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 156.6 | Safe |
| 2024 | 133.69 | Safe |
| 2025 | 96.68 | Safe |
| 2026 | 64.49 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from NVDA's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is NVIDIA Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $6.28 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $4.90 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $8.34 | 56 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 41.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 35.1x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $268.61 (56 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does NVIDIA Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up NVDA's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is NVDA's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 13.4% | — |
| 2024 | 60.0% | Rising |
| 2025 | 60.0% | Stable |
| 2026 | 60.0% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is NVIDIA Corporation's dividend safe?
Can NVIDIA Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 0.8%. FCF covers the dividend 9.6x. 15 consecutive years of payments.
NVIDIA Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $215.9B | $130.5B | $27.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | $120.1B | $72.9B | $4.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $96.7B | $60.9B | $3.8B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 71.1% | 75.0% | 56.9% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our NVDA analysis
NVDA earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.77. Revenue estimate: $78.79B. Our current Fair Value: $220.43 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
NVDA analyst consensus: 95% bullish (56 of 59 analysts)
9 Strong Buy, 47 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $268.61 (32.6% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $220.43.
NVDA paid $0.0100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 0.8%.
NVDA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NVDA beat EPS estimates by 5.3%
Reported EPS: $1.62 vs estimate $1.54. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $220.43 (8.9% above current price).
NVDA filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
NVDA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NVDA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NVDA paid $0.0100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 0.8%.
NVDA beat EPS estimates by 3.5%
Reported EPS: $1.30 vs estimate $1.26. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $220.43 (8.9% above current price).
NVDA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
NVDA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NVDA paid $0.0100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 0.8%.
NVDA beat EPS estimates by 4.1%
Reported EPS: $1.05 vs estimate $1.01. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $220.43 (8.9% above current price).
NVDA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
NVDA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NVDA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NVDA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NVDA paid $0.0100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 0.8%.
NVDA missed EPS estimates by 5.9%
Reported EPS: $0.76 vs estimate $0.81. Our Fair Value of $220.43 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
NVDA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
NVDA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NVDA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NVDA paid $0.0100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 0.8%.
NVDA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NVDA beat EPS estimates by 5.2%
Reported EPS: $0.89 vs estimate $0.85. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $220.43 (8.9% above current price).
NVDA filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
NVDA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NVDA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about NVIDIA Corporation
What is NVIDIA Corporation stock price today?
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) stock price is $202.50 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does NVIDIA Corporation do?
NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company. It operates through two segments, Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software.
What is NVIDIA Corporation market cap?
NVIDIA Corporation has a market capitalization of $4.92T, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is NVDA in?
NVIDIA Corporation operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Semiconductors industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol NVDA.
Is NVDA stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, NVIDIA Corporation trades 8.1% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $220.43
- Current Price: $202.50
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is NVDA stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 56 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for NVIDIA Corporation is $268.61, implying upside of 32.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $380.00
- Analyst Low Target: $140.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is NVIDIA Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for NVIDIA Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 71.6%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 74.8%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 30.6%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 34.8%
What are NVIDIA Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $215.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $120.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $96.7B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 71.1% | Rising |
What is NVDA's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 41.3x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 18.0x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 35.1x
How volatile is NVDA stock?
NVIDIA Corporation has a beta of 2.33, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does NVIDIA Corporation have?
NVIDIA Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $62.56B
- Total Debt: $11.41B
- Net Cash Position: $51.14B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is NVIDIA Corporation's free cash flow?
NVIDIA Corporation generated $58.13B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $102.72B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does NVIDIA Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, NVIDIA Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.0%
- Payout Ratio: 0.8%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 15
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -9.0%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is NVIDIA Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
NVIDIA Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 64.49, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does NVIDIA Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
NVIDIA Corporation scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is NVDA's return on equity (ROE)?
NVIDIA Corporation's return on equity is 101.5%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy NVDA stock?
NVDA shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol NVDA
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is NVDA a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies NVIDIA Corporation as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of NVIDIA Corporation?
The current CEO of NVIDIA Corporation is Mr. Jen-Hsun Huang.
What is NVDA's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $4.90
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $11.24
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $8.34
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $11.24
Other Technology companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
NVDA analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings