Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Is Oracle Corporation a safe investment right now?
Oracle Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 2.7 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $165.89 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Oracle Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.7 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives ORCL's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0479 | 1.2 | -0.06 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.092 | 1.4 | -0.13 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1054 | 3.3 | 0.35 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 3.6587 | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3409 | 1.0 | 0.34 |
How has ORCL's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.25 | Safe |
| 2023 | 2.81 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.89 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.7 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from ORCL's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Oracle Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $5.78 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (3Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $4.34 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $7.45 | 38 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 33.7x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 28.7x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $243.87 (38 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Oracle Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up ORCL's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is ORCL's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 14.9% | — |
| 2023 | 13.8% | Declining |
| 2024 | 16.0% | Rising |
| 2025 | 15.7% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Oracle Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Oracle Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 35.9%. FCF covers the dividend 1.5x. 18 consecutive years of payments.
Oracle Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $57.4B | $53.0B | $42.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $12.4B | $10.5B | $6.7B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.4B | $11.8B | $5.0B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 70.5% | 71.4% | 79.1% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our ORCL analysis
ORCL earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.96. Revenue estimate: $19.10B. Our current Fair Value: $165.89 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
ORCL analyst consensus: 79% bullish (34 of 43 analysts)
7 Strong Buy, 27 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $243.87 (30.1% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $165.89.
ORCL paid $0.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 35.9%.
ORCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL beat EPS estimates by 5.7%
Reported EPS: $1.79 vs estimate $1.69. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $165.89 (11.5% below current price).
ORCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL paid $0.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 35.9%.
ORCL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL beat EPS estimates by 38.0%
Reported EPS: $2.26 vs estimate $1.64. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $165.89 (11.5% below current price).
ORCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL paid $0.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 35.9%.
ORCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL missed EPS estimates by 0.6%
Reported EPS: $1.47 vs estimate $1.48. Our Fair Value of $165.89 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ORCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL paid $0.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 35.9%.
ORCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL beat EPS estimates by 3.4%
Reported EPS: $1.70 vs estimate $1.64. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $165.89 (11.5% below current price).
ORCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL paid $0.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 35.9%.
ORCL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL missed EPS estimates by 1.4%
Reported EPS: $1.47 vs estimate $1.49. Our Fair Value of $165.89 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ORCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ORCL paid $0.4000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 35.9%.
Common questions about Oracle Corporation
What is Oracle Corporation stock price today?
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) stock price is $187.50 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Oracle Corporation do?
Oracle Corporation offers products and services that address enterprise information technology environments worldwide. Its Oracle cloud software as a service offering include various cloud software applications, including Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise resource planning ERP, Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise performance management EPM, Oracle Fusion cloud supply chain and manufacturing management SCM, Oracle Fusion cloud human capital management HCM, and NetSuite applications suite, Oracle Health applications, as well as Oracle Fusion Sales, Service, and Marketing. It also offers cloud-based industry solutions for various industries; Oracle cloud license and on-premise license; and Oracle license support services.
What is Oracle Corporation market cap?
Oracle Corporation has a market capitalization of $539.26B, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is ORCL in?
Oracle Corporation operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Software - Infrastructure industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol ORCL.
Is ORCL stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Oracle Corporation trades 13.0% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $165.89
- Current Price: $187.50
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is ORCL stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 38 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Oracle Corporation is $243.87, implying upside of 30.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $400.00
- Analyst Low Target: $155.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Oracle Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Oracle Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 17.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 23.6%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 31.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 7.0%
What are Oracle Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $57.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $12.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.4B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 70.5% | Declining |
What is ORCL's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 33.7x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 23.5x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 28.7x
How volatile is ORCL stock?
Oracle Corporation has a beta of 1.60, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Oracle Corporation have?
Oracle Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $39.13B
- Total Debt: $162.16B
- Net Cash Position: $-123.03B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Oracle Corporation's free cash flow?
Oracle Corporation generated $-22.30B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $23.51B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Oracle Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Oracle Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.1%
- Payout Ratio: 35.9%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 18
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -3.6%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Oracle Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Oracle Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 2.70, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Oracle Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Oracle Corporation scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is ORCL's return on equity (ROE)?
Oracle Corporation's return on equity is 57.6%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy ORCL stock?
ORCL shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol ORCL
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is ORCL a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Oracle Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Oracle Corporation?
The current CEO of Oracle Corporation is Mr. Michael D. Sicilia.
What is ORCL's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $5.56
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $7.97
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $7.45
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $7.97
Other Technology companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
ORCL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings