Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Technology · Semiconductors
Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited a safe investment right now?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's Altman Z-Score of 3.05 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $370.92 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.05 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives TSM's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.2893 | 1.2 | 0.35 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.6352 | 1.4 | 0.89 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.2589 | 3.3 | 0.85 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.7922 | 0.6 | 0.48 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4802 | 1.0 | 0.48 |
How has TSM's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.8 | Gray |
| 2023 | 2.63 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.76 | Gray |
| 2025 | 3.05 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from TSM's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $13.20 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $11.70 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $15.45 | 18 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 33.1x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 28.1x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $463.45 (18 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up TSM's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is TSM's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 30.7% | — |
| 2023 | 22.8% | Declining |
| 2024 | 26.9% | Rising |
| 2025 | 32.1% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's dividend safe?
Can Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 27.9%. FCF covers the dividend 1.8x. 23 consecutive years of payments.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3809.1B | $2894.3B | $2263.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1697.6B | $1158.4B | $992.9B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $992.4B | $861.2B | $521.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 59.9% | 56.1% | 59.6% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our TSM analysis
TSM earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $3.74. Revenue estimate: $1.26T. Our current Fair Value: $370.92 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
TSM analyst consensus: 95% bullish (18 of 19 analysts)
6 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $463.45 (19.6% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $370.92.
TSM beat EPS estimates by 4.7%
Reported EPS: $3.49 vs estimate $3.33. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $370.92 (4.3% below current price).
TSM paid $0.9560/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 27.9%.
TSM beat EPS estimates by 5.5%
Reported EPS: $3.14 vs estimate $2.98. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $370.92 (4.3% below current price).
TSM paid $0.8350/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 27.9%.
TSM beat EPS estimates by 11.2%
Reported EPS: $2.92 vs estimate $2.63. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $370.92 (4.3% below current price).
TSM paid $0.8220/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 27.9%.
TSM beat EPS estimates by 6.8%
Reported EPS: $2.47 vs estimate $2.31. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $370.92 (4.3% below current price).
TSM paid $0.7800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 27.9%.
TSM beat EPS estimates by 3.2%
Reported EPS: $2.12 vs estimate $2.05. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $370.92 (4.3% below current price).
TSM paid $0.6840/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 27.9%.
TSM beat EPS estimates by 0.7%
Reported EPS: $2.24 vs estimate $2.22. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $370.92 (4.3% below current price).
Common questions about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited stock price today?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) stock price is $387.44 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited do?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. It also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities.
What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited market cap?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited has a market capitalization of $2.01T, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is TSM in?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Semiconductors industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol TSM.
Is TSM stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited trades 4.5% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $370.92
- Current Price: $387.44
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is TSM stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 18 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited is $463.45, implying upside of 19.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $600.00
- Analyst Low Target: $351.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 35.2%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 45.1%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 25.9%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 24.9%
What are Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3809.1B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1697.6B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $992.4B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 59.9% | Stable |
What is TSM's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 33.1x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 20.1x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 28.1x
How volatile is TSM stock?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited has a beta of 1.25, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited have?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $3.38T
- Total Debt: $1.02T
- Net Cash Position: $2.37T
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's free cash flow?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited generated $721.56B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.35T in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 4.6%
- Payout Ratio: 27.9%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 23
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -12.8%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited at risk of going bankrupt?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's Altman Z-Score is 3.05, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited have a durable competitive advantage?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is TSM's return on equity (ROE)?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's return on equity is 36.2%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy TSM stock?
TSM shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol TSM
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is TSM a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?
The current CEO of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited is Dr. C. C. Wei Ph.D..
What is TSM's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $11.70
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $19.29
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $15.45
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $19.29
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
TSM analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings