ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Is ASML Holding N.V. a safe investment right now?
ASML Holding N.V.'s Altman Z-Score of 13.02 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $1231.20 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could ASML Holding N.V. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 13.02 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives ASML's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1256 | 1.2 | 0.15 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3478 | 1.4 | 0.49 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.2279 | 3.3 | 0.75 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 18.3129 | 0.6 | 10.99 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.646 | 1.0 | 0.65 |
How has ASML's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 14.07 | Safe |
| 2023 | 14.96 | Safe |
| 2024 | 13.18 | Safe |
| 2025 | 13.02 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from ASML's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is ASML Holding N.V. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $30.78 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $30.46 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $31.27 | 15 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 47.4x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $1,656.69 (15 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does ASML Holding N.V. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up ASML's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is ASML's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 49.9% | — |
| 2023 | 51.1% | Rising |
| 2024 | 39.7% | Declining |
| 2025 | 48.0% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is ASML Holding N.V.'s dividend safe?
Can ASML Holding N.V. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 25.8%. FCF covers the dividend 2.8x. 20 consecutive years of payments.
ASML Holding N.V.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.7B | $28.3B | $21.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $9.6B | $7.6B | $5.6B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $11.0B | $9.1B | $7.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 52.8% | 51.3% | 50.5% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our ASML analysis
ASML earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $6.85. Revenue estimate: $8.89B. Our current Fair Value: $1231.20 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
ASML analyst consensus: 86% bullish (38 of 44 analysts)
6 Strong Buy, 32 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $1656.69 (14.8% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $1231.20.
ASML beat EPS estimates by 8.0%
Reported EPS: $7.15 vs estimate $6.62. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1231.20 (14.7% below current price).
ASML paid $1.8830/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 25.8%.
ASML missed EPS estimates by 2.7%
Reported EPS: $7.34 vs estimate $7.55. Our Fair Value of $1231.20 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ASML paid $1.8640/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 25.8%.
ASML beat EPS estimates by 2.1%
Reported EPS: $5.49 vs estimate $5.37. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1231.20 (14.7% below current price).
ASML paid $1.8470/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 25.8%.
ASML beat EPS estimates by 12.4%
Reported EPS: $5.90 vs estimate $5.25. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1231.20 (14.7% below current price).
ASML paid $2.0910/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 25.8%.
ASML beat EPS estimates by 3.7%
Reported EPS: $6.00 vs estimate $5.79. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1231.20 (14.7% below current price).
ASML paid $1.5700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 25.8%.
ASML beat EPS estimates by 1.6%
Reported EPS: $6.84 vs estimate $6.73. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1231.20 (14.7% below current price).
Common questions about ASML Holding N.V.
What is ASML Holding N.V. stock price today?
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) stock price is $1443.66 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does ASML Holding N.V. do?
ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. It offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems.
What is ASML Holding N.V. market cap?
ASML Holding N.V. has a market capitalization of $566.87B, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is ASML in?
ASML Holding N.V. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ASML.
Is ASML stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, ASML Holding N.V. trades 17.3% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $1231.20
- Current Price: $1443.66
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is ASML stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 15 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for ASML Holding N.V. is $1656.69, implying upside of 14.8% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $1984.31
- Analyst Low Target: $905.69
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is ASML Holding N.V. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for ASML Holding N.V.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 18.8%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 26.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 20.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 29.6%
What are ASML Holding N.V.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $9.6B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $11.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 52.8% | Stable |
What is ASML's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 47.4x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 30.2x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is ASML stock?
ASML Holding N.V. has a beta of 1.38, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does ASML Holding N.V. have?
ASML Holding N.V.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $8.38B
- Total Debt: $2.71B
- Net Cash Position: $5.67B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is ASML Holding N.V.'s free cash flow?
ASML Holding N.V. generated $8.24B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $10.53B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does ASML Holding N.V. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, ASML Holding N.V. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.4%
- Payout Ratio: 25.8%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 20
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -13.8%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is ASML Holding N.V. at risk of going bankrupt?
ASML Holding N.V.'s Altman Z-Score is 13.02, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does ASML Holding N.V. have a durable competitive advantage?
ASML Holding N.V. scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is ASML's return on equity (ROE)?
ASML Holding N.V.'s return on equity is 52.2%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy ASML stock?
ASML shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol ASML
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is ASML a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies ASML Holding N.V. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of ASML Holding N.V.?
The current CEO of ASML Holding N.V. is Mr. Christophe D. Fouquet.
What is ASML's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $30.46
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $47.77
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $31.27
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $40.53
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
ASML analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings