Apple Inc. (AAPL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Consumer Electronics
Is Apple Inc. a safe investment right now?
Apple Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 10.7 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $257.25 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could Apple Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 10.7 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives AAPL's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0492 | 1.2 | -0.06 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.0397 | 1.4 | -0.06 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.3704 | 3.3 | 1.22 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 14.0628 | 0.6 | 8.44 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.1584 | 1.0 | 1.16 |
How has AAPL's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10.13 | Safe |
| 2023 | 10.44 | Safe |
| 2024 | 9.86 | Safe |
| 2025 | 10.7 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from AAPL's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Apple Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $8.75 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $7.46 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $8.52 | 40 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 34.6x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 29.4x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $297.71 (40 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Apple Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up AAPL's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is AAPL's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 60.0% | — |
| 2023 | 60.0% | Stable |
| 2024 | 60.0% | Stable |
| 2025 | 60.0% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Apple Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Apple Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 13.0%. FCF covers the dividend 7.5x. 24 consecutive years of payments.
Apple Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $416.2B | $391.0B | $394.3B | Rising |
| Net Income | $112.0B | $93.7B | $99.8B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $98.8B | $108.8B | $111.4B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 46.9% | 46.2% | 43.3% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our AAPL analysis
AAPL earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.95. Revenue estimate: $109.59B. Our current Fair Value: $257.25 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
AAPL analyst consensus: 66% bullish (31 of 47 analysts)
7 Strong Buy, 24 Buy, 14 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $297.71 (9.0% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $257.25.
AAPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL paid $0.2600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 13.0%.
AAPL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL beat EPS estimates by 6.3%
Reported EPS: $2.84 vs estimate $2.67. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $257.25 (5.8% below current price).
AAPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL paid $0.2600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 13.0%.
AAPL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL beat EPS estimates by 4.5%
Reported EPS: $1.85 vs estimate $1.77. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $257.25 (5.8% below current price).
AAPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL paid $0.2600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 13.0%.
AAPL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL beat EPS estimates by 10.1%
Reported EPS: $1.57 vs estimate $1.43. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $257.25 (5.8% below current price).
AAPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL paid $0.2600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 13.0%.
AAPL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL beat EPS estimates by 1.7%
Reported EPS: $1.65 vs estimate $1.62. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $257.25 (5.8% below current price).
AAPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL paid $0.2500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 13.0%.
AAPL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL beat EPS estimates by 2.5%
Reported EPS: $2.40 vs estimate $2.34. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $257.25 (5.8% below current price).
AAPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Apple Inc.
What is Apple Inc. stock price today?
Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock price is $273.17 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Apple Inc. do?
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. It offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod, as well as Apple branded and third-party accessories.
What is Apple Inc. market cap?
Apple Inc. has a market capitalization of $4.02T, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is AAPL in?
Apple Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Consumer Electronics industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol AAPL.
Is AAPL stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Apple Inc. trades 6.2% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $257.25
- Current Price: $273.17
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is AAPL stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 40 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Apple Inc. is $297.71, implying upside of 9.0% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $350.00
- Analyst Low Target: $215.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Apple Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Apple Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 12.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 14.2%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 7.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 10.2%
What are Apple Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $416.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $112.0B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $98.8B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 46.9% | Rising |
What is AAPL's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 34.6x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 29.1x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 29.4x
How volatile is AAPL stock?
Apple Inc. has a beta of 1.11, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Apple Inc. have?
Apple Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $66.91B
- Total Debt: $90.51B
- Net Cash Position: $-23.60B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Apple Inc.'s free cash flow?
Apple Inc. generated $106.31B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $135.47B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Apple Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Apple Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.4%
- Payout Ratio: 13.0%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 24
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -21.4%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Apple Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Apple Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 10.70, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Apple Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Apple Inc. scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is AAPL's return on equity (ROE)?
Apple Inc.'s return on equity is 152.0%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy AAPL stock?
AAPL shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol AAPL
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is AAPL a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Apple Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Apple Inc.?
The current CEO of Apple Inc. is Mr. Timothy D. Cook.
What is AAPL's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $7.89
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $9.37
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $8.52
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $9.39
Other Technology companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
AAPL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings