Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Communication Equipment
Is Cisco Systems, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Cisco Systems, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 3.63 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $86.08 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could Cisco Systems, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.63 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives CSCO's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0006 | 1.2 | -0.0 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.0004 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1038 | 3.3 | 0.34 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 4.7027 | 0.6 | 2.82 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4633 | 1.0 | 0.46 |
How has CSCO's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.12 | Safe |
| 2023 | 4.94 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.46 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.63 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from CSCO's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Cisco Systems, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $3.13 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (2Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.61 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $4.16 | 22 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 32.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 27.5x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $89.09 (22 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Cisco Systems, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up CSCO's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is CSCO's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 30.1% | — |
| 2023 | 29.8% | Stable |
| 2024 | 17.3% | Declining |
| 2025 | 16.9% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Cisco Systems, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Cisco Systems, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 59.0%. FCF covers the dividend 2.0x. 16 consecutive years of payments.
Cisco Systems, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $56.7B | $53.8B | $51.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $10.2B | $10.3B | $11.8B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $13.3B | $10.2B | $12.7B | Stable |
| Gross Margin | 64.9% | 64.7% | 62.5% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our CSCO analysis
CSCO earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.04. Revenue estimate: $15.56B. Our current Fair Value: $86.08 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
CSCO analyst consensus: 65% bullish (17 of 26 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 9 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $89.09 (0.8% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $86.08.
CSCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO paid $0.4200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.0%.
CSCO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO beat EPS estimates by 1.8%
Reported EPS: $1.04 vs estimate $1.02. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $86.08 (4.1% below current price).
CSCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO paid $0.4100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.0%.
CSCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO beat EPS estimates by 1.8%
Reported EPS: $1.00 vs estimate $0.98. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $86.08 (4.1% below current price).
CSCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO paid $0.4100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.0%.
CSCO filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO beat EPS estimates by 1.3%
Reported EPS: $0.99 vs estimate $0.98. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $86.08 (4.1% below current price).
CSCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO paid $0.4100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.0%.
CSCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO beat EPS estimates by 4.6%
Reported EPS: $0.96 vs estimate $0.92. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $86.08 (4.1% below current price).
CSCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO paid $0.4100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.0%.
CSCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO beat EPS estimates by 3.4%
Reported EPS: $0.94 vs estimate $0.91. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $86.08 (4.1% below current price).
CSCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSCO paid $0.4000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 59.0%.
Common questions about Cisco Systems, Inc.
What is Cisco Systems, Inc. stock price today?
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) stock price is $89.80 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Cisco Systems, Inc. do?
Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, develops, and sells technologies that help to power, secure, and draw insights from the internet in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and China. It offers data center switching; network security, identity and access management, and secure access service edge; threat intelligence, detection, and response solutions; interconnects public and private wireline and mobile networks, delivering connectivity to campus, data center, and branch networks; WEBEX suite, collaboration devices, and contact center; communication platform as a service software, including perpetual licenses, subscription arrangements, and hardware solutions; network assurance, monitoring and analytics, and observability suite; issue resolution, software support, and hardware replacement; professional services, such as planning, design, implementation, and high-value consulting; service and support packages, financing, and managed network services; and regional, national, and international wireline carriers, webscale products, internet, and cable.
What is Cisco Systems, Inc. market cap?
Cisco Systems, Inc. has a market capitalization of $354.81B, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is CSCO in?
Cisco Systems, Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Communication Equipment industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol CSCO.
Is CSCO stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Cisco Systems, Inc. trades 4.3% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $86.08
- Current Price: $89.80
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is CSCO stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 22 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Cisco Systems, Inc. is $89.09, implying downside of 0.8% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $100.00
- Analyst Low Target: $75.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Cisco Systems, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Cisco Systems, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 8.7%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 9.1%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 5.5%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 8.5%
What are Cisco Systems, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $56.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $10.2B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $13.3B | Stable |
| Gross Margin | 64.9% | Stable |
What is CSCO's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 32.3x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 19.9x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 27.5x
How volatile is CSCO stock?
Cisco Systems, Inc. has a beta of 0.82, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Cisco Systems, Inc. have?
Cisco Systems, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $15.78B
- Total Debt: $31.74B
- Net Cash Position: $-15.96B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Cisco Systems, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Cisco Systems, Inc. generated $10.13B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $13.32B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Cisco Systems, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Cisco Systems, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.8%
- Payout Ratio: 59.0%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 16
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -10.8%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Cisco Systems, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Cisco Systems, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 3.63, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Cisco Systems, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Cisco Systems, Inc. scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is CSCO's return on equity (ROE)?
Cisco Systems, Inc.'s return on equity is 23.8%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy CSCO stock?
CSCO shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol CSCO
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is CSCO a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Cisco Systems, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Cisco Systems, Inc.?
The current CEO of Cisco Systems, Inc. is Mr. Charles H. Robbins.
What is CSCO's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $2.78
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $4.51
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $4.16
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $4.51
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CSCO analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings