Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Software - Application
Is Shopify Inc. a safe investment right now?
Shopify Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 62.01 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $37.20 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 2.6/5 stars.
Could Shopify Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 62.01 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives SHOP's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.4545 | 1.2 | 0.55 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.1883 | 1.4 | 0.26 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1241 | 3.3 | 0.41 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 100.0456 | 0.6 | 60.03 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.7608 | 1.0 | 0.76 |
How has SHOP's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 41.73 | Safe |
| 2023 | 47.3 | Safe |
| 2024 | 45.1 | Safe |
| 2025 | 62.01 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from SHOP's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Shopify Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $0.93 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (4Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $1.56 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $1.82 | 46 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 140.4x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $159.70 (46 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Shopify Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.6/5.
What makes up SHOP's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is SHOP's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -7.5% | — |
| 2023 | 0.7% | Rising |
| 2024 | 10.4% | Rising |
| 2025 | 14.0% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Shopify Inc.'s dividend safe?
Shopify Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.6B | $8.9B | $5.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.2B | $2.0B | −$3.5B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.0B | $1.6B | −$0.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 48.1% | 50.4% | 49.2% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our SHOP analysis
SHOP earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.33. Revenue estimate: $3.09B. Our current Fair Value: $37.20 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
SHOP analyst consensus: 75% bullish (38 of 51 analysts)
10 Strong Buy, 28 Buy, 12 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $159.70 (21.0% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $37.20.
SHOP missed EPS estimates by 5.7%
Reported EPS: $0.48 vs estimate $0.51. Our Fair Value of $37.20 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
SHOP filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
SHOP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SHOP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SHOP beat EPS estimates by 0.6%
Reported EPS: $0.34 vs estimate $0.34. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $37.20 (71.8% below current price).
SHOP filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SHOP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SHOP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SHOP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SHOP beat EPS estimates by 22.1%
Reported EPS: $0.35 vs estimate $0.29. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $37.20 (71.8% below current price).
SHOP filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SHOP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SHOP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SHOP missed EPS estimates by 4.5%
Reported EPS: $0.25 vs estimate $0.26. Our Fair Value of $37.20 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
SHOP filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SHOP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SHOP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SHOP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SHOP beat EPS estimates by 1.8%
Reported EPS: $0.44 vs estimate $0.43. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $37.20 (71.8% below current price).
SHOP filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
SHOP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Shopify Inc.
What is Shopify Inc. stock price today?
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock price is $131.96 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Shopify Inc. do?
Shopify Inc., a commerce technology company, provides tools to start, scale, market, and run a business of various sizes in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The Company offers Shopify platform that enables merchants to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, fulfill and ship orders, build customer relationships, source products, leverage analytics, and reporting and access financing for running their business across all of their sales channels, including web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, social media storefronts, and marketplaces. It also provides Shopify Payments, a fully integrated payment processing service that allows merchants to accept and process payment cards online and offline.
What is Shopify Inc. market cap?
Shopify Inc. has a market capitalization of $171.68B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is SHOP in?
Shopify Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Software - Application industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol SHOP.
Is SHOP stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Shopify Inc. trades 254.7% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $37.20
- Current Price: $131.96
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is SHOP stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 46 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Shopify Inc. is $159.70, implying upside of 21.0% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $200.00
- Analyst Low Target: $110.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Shopify Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Shopify Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 27.0%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 27.4%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 23.2%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 26.0%
What are Shopify Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.2B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 48.1% | Stable |
What is SHOP's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 140.4x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 57.3x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is SHOP stock?
Shopify Inc. has a beta of 2.82, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Shopify Inc. have?
Shopify Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $5.85B
- Total Debt: $188.0M
- Net Cash Position: $5.66B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Shopify Inc.'s free cash flow?
Shopify Inc. generated $1.29B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.03B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Shopify Inc. pay a dividend?
Shopify Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Shopify Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Shopify Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 62.01, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Shopify Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Shopify Inc. scores 2.6/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is SHOP's return on equity (ROE)?
Shopify Inc.'s return on equity is 9.8%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy SHOP stock?
SHOP shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol SHOP
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is SHOP a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Shopify Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Shopify Inc.?
The current CEO of Shopify Inc. is Mr. Tobias Lutke.
What is SHOP's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $0.94
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $2.30
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $1.82
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $2.30
Other Technology companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
SHOP analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings