Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Semiconductors
Is Micron Technology, Inc. a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) stock is $931.63, versus a market price of $971.66 — Fairly Valued. Predicted EPS $49.82 x 18.7 Fair PE.
Micron Technology, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 1.93 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $931.63 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 2.7/5 stars.
Micron Technology, Inc. is part of the AI Memory & Storage group in our AI coverage — compare its fair value against every other AI, cloud, and quantum stock through a value investing lens.
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Investment Thesis — a Value Investor's View
Micron is one of three companies on earth that can make high-bandwidth memory at scale, and HBM demand from AI accelerators has turned a brutally cyclical commodity business into — temporarily — a sold-out one. The word to respect is cyclical: memory pricing has crushed Micron's earnings roughly twice a decade for forty years, and trailing earnings at a cycle peak systematically overstate normal earning power. Our model prices what it earns now; you should mentally haircut for where in the cycle 'now' sits. The structural bull case is that HBM's complexity permanently concentrates the industry; that thesis is plausible but unproven through a full downturn.
Could Micron Technology, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.93 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives MU's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.21 | 1.2 | 0.25 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.5868 | 1.4 | 0.82 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1224 | 3.3 | 0.4 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4514 | 1.0 | 0.45 |
How has MU's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.21 | Gray |
| 2023 | 1.17 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.53 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.93 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from MU's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
Micron Technology, Inc. Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $49.82 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (3Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $7.59 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $73.39 | 43 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 21.9x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 18.7x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $1,501.98 (43 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Micron Technology, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.7/5.
What makes up MU's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is MU's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17.4% | — |
| 2023 | -9.4% | Declining |
| 2024 | 3.2% | Rising |
| 2025 | 15.4% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Micron Technology, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Micron Technology, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 1.1%. FCF covers the dividend 6.8x. 12 consecutive years of payments.
US dividend withholding tax of 30% applies to non-US tax residents. This rate may be reduced under a tax treaty between the US and your country of residence. The adjusted yield shown assumes the default 30% rate. For informational purposes only — consult a qualified tax advisor.
Micron Technology, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $37.4B | $25.1B | $30.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $8.5B | $0.8B | $8.7B | Stable |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.7B | $0.1B | $3.1B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 39.8% | 22.4% | N/A | — |
Recent events that affect our MU analysis
MU earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $31.30. Revenue estimate: $50.82B. Our current Fair Value: $931.63 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
MU analyst consensus: 89% bullish (41 of 46 analysts)
9 Strong Buy, 32 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $1501.98 (54.6% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $931.63.
MU paid $0.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 1.1%.
MU filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU beat EPS estimates by 21.4%
Reported EPS: $25.11 vs estimate $20.69. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $931.63 (4.1% below current price).
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU paid $0.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 1.1%.
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU beat EPS estimates by 33.2%
Reported EPS: $12.20 vs estimate $9.16. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $931.63 (4.1% below current price).
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU paid $0.1150/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 1.1%.
MU filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU beat EPS estimates by 20.6%
Reported EPS: $4.78 vs estimate $3.96. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $931.63 (4.1% below current price).
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU paid $0.1150/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 1.1%.
MU beat EPS estimates by 5.9%
Reported EPS: $3.03 vs estimate $2.86. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $931.63 (4.1% below current price).
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU paid $0.1150/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 1.1%.
MU filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU beat EPS estimates by 19.8%
Reported EPS: $1.91 vs estimate $1.59. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $931.63 (4.1% below current price).
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU paid $0.1150/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 1.1%.
MU filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU beat EPS estimates by 9.5%
Reported EPS: $1.56 vs estimate $1.42. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $931.63 (4.1% below current price).
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MU filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Micron Technology, Inc.
What is Micron Technology, Inc. stock price today?
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) stock price is $971.66 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Micron Technology, Inc. do?
Micron Technology, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products in the United States, Taiwan, Japan, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through the Cloud Memory Business Unit; Core Data Center Business Unit; Mobile and Client Business Unit; and Automotive and Embedded Business Unit segments.
What sector and industry is MU in?
Micron Technology, Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Semiconductors industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol MU.
Is MU stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Micron Technology, Inc. trades 4.3% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $931.63
- Current Price: $971.66
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is MU stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 43 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Micron Technology, Inc. is $1501.98, implying upside of 54.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $2200.00
- Analyst Low Target: $361.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Micron Technology, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Micron Technology, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 247.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 785.2%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 84.9%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 111.1%
What are Micron Technology, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $37.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $8.5B | Stable |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.7B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 39.8% | — |
What is MU's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 21.9x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 6.3x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 18.7x
How volatile is MU stock?
Micron Technology, Inc. has a beta of 2.21, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Micron Technology, Inc. have?
Micron Technology, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $26.02B
- Total Debt: $6.38B
- Net Cash Position: $19.65B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Micron Technology, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Micron Technology, Inc. generated $7.64B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $51.43B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Micron Technology, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Micron Technology, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.1%
- Payout Ratio: 1.1%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 12
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: 8.5%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Micron Technology, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Micron Technology, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 1.93, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Micron Technology, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Micron Technology, Inc. scores 2.7/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is MU's return on equity (ROE)?
Micron Technology, Inc.'s return on equity is 66.6%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy MU stock?
MU shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol MU
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is MU a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Micron Technology, Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Micron Technology, Inc.?
The current CEO of Micron Technology, Inc. is Mr. Sanjay Mehrotra.
What is MU's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $44.26
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $154.89
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $73.39
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $154.89
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
MU analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings