Twilio Inc. (TWLO) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Is Twilio Inc. a safe investment right now?
Twilio Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 6.73 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $91.60 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 2.6/5 stars.
Could Twilio Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 6.73 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives TWLO's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.2753 | 1.2 | 0.33 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.8538 | 1.4 | -1.2 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0179 | 3.3 | 0.06 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 11.7014 | 0.6 | 7.02 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.5186 | 1.0 | 0.52 |
How has TWLO's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6.88 | Safe |
| 2023 | 7.36 | Safe |
| 2024 | 6.85 | Safe |
| 2025 | 6.73 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from TWLO's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Twilio Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $2.29 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $0.21 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $5.42 | 28 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 716.4x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $145.16 (28 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Twilio Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.6/5.
What makes up TWLO's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is TWLO's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -8.9% | — |
| 2023 | -3.6% | Rising |
| 2024 | -0.4% | Rising |
| 2025 | 2.0% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Twilio Inc.'s dividend safe?
Twilio Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.1B | $4.5B | $3.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.0B | −$0.1B | −$1.3B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.9B | $0.7B | −$0.3B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 48.9% | 51.1% | 47.4% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our TWLO analysis
TWLO earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.27. Revenue estimate: $1.34B. Our current Fair Value: $91.60 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
TWLO analyst consensus: 72% bullish (21 of 29 analysts)
5 Strong Buy, 16 Buy, 6 Hold, 0 Sell, 2 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $145.16 (3.5% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $91.60.
TWLO beat EPS estimates by 8.2%
Reported EPS: $1.33 vs estimate $1.23. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $91.60 (39.1% below current price).
TWLO beat EPS estimates by 17.0%
Reported EPS: $1.25 vs estimate $1.07. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $91.60 (39.1% below current price).
TWLO beat EPS estimates by 13.3%
Reported EPS: $1.19 vs estimate $1.05. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $91.60 (39.1% below current price).
TWLO beat EPS estimates by 18.5%
Reported EPS: $1.14 vs estimate $0.96. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $91.60 (39.1% below current price).
TWLO missed EPS estimates by 3.2%
Reported EPS: $1.00 vs estimate $1.03. Our Fair Value of $91.60 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
Common questions about Twilio Inc.
What is Twilio Inc. stock price today?
Twilio Inc. (TWLO) stock price is $150.45 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Twilio Inc. do?
Twilio Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides customer engagement platform solutions in the United States and internationally. It provides various application programming interfaces and software solutions for communications between customers and end users, including messaging, voice, email, video interactions, digital engagement centers, marketing campaigns, and user authentication and identity solutions. It also offers software products to build direct and personalized relationships with their end users, such as Segment, a platform that provides tools to harness the power of contextual data by unifying real-time information collected throughout each customer's journey into a unique profile.
What is Twilio Inc. market cap?
Twilio Inc. has a market capitalization of $22.81B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is TWLO in?
Twilio Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Software - Infrastructure industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol TWLO.
Is TWLO stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Twilio Inc. trades 64.2% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $91.60
- Current Price: $150.45
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is TWLO stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 28 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Twilio Inc. is $145.16, implying downside of 3.5% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $185.00
- Analyst Low Target: $100.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Twilio Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Twilio Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 12.2%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 10.8%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 8.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 17.9%
What are Twilio Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.1B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.0B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.9B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 48.9% | Stable |
What is TWLO's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 716.4x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 23.5x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is TWLO stock?
Twilio Inc. has a beta of 1.28, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Twilio Inc. have?
Twilio Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.47B
- Total Debt: $1.08B
- Net Cash Position: $1.39B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Twilio Inc.'s free cash flow?
Twilio Inc. generated $943.9M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.00B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Twilio Inc. pay a dividend?
Twilio Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Twilio Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Twilio Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 6.73, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Twilio Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Twilio Inc. scores 2.6/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is TWLO's return on equity (ROE)?
Twilio Inc.'s return on equity is 0.4%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy TWLO stock?
TWLO shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol TWLO
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is TWLO a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Twilio Inc. as Pure Speculation. It lacks the financial stability or valuation margin typically required for value investing. This stock is considered high risk.
Who is the CEO of Twilio Inc.?
The current CEO of Twilio Inc. is Mr. Khozema Z. Shipchandler.
What is TWLO's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $0.21
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $6.39
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $5.42
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $6.39
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
TWLO analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings