Western Digital Corporation (WDC) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Computer Hardware
Is Western Digital Corporation a safe investment right now?
Western Digital Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 10.58 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $348.37 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 2.9/5 stars.
Could Western Digital Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 10.58 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives WDC's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0313 | 1.2 | 0.04 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.0544 | 1.4 | 0.08 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1062 | 3.3 | 0.35 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 15.7212 | 0.6 | 9.43 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.6799 | 1.0 | 0.68 |
How has WDC's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 7.39 | Safe |
| 2023 | 7.02 | Safe |
| 2024 | 6.78 | Safe |
| 2025 | 10.58 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from WDC's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Western Digital Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $11.13 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (2Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $5.12 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $8.96 | 23 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 36.8x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 31.3x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $351.48 (23 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Western Digital Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.9/5.
What makes up WDC's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is WDC's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12.9% | — |
| 2023 | -3.0% | Declining |
| 2024 | -1.8% | Rising |
| 2025 | 14.8% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Western Digital Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Western Digital Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 3.1%. FCF covers the dividend 0.0x. 11 consecutive years of payments.
Western Digital Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.5B | $6.3B | $18.8B | Declining |
| Net Income | $1.9B | −$0.8B | $1.5B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.3B | −$0.8B | $0.8B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 38.8% | 28.1% | 31.3% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our WDC analysis
WDC earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.37. Revenue estimate: $3.24B. Our current Fair Value: $348.37 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
WDC analyst consensus: 84% bullish (21 of 25 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 17 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $351.48 (9.7% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $348.37.
WDC paid $0.1250/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 3.1%.
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC beat EPS estimates by 10.5%
Reported EPS: $2.13 vs estimate $1.93. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $348.37 (10.5% below current price).
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC paid $0.1250/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 3.1%.
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC beat EPS estimates by 111.6%
Reported EPS: $3.07 vs estimate $1.45. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $348.37 (10.5% below current price).
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC paid $0.1000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 3.1%.
WDC filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC beat EPS estimates by 12.1%
Reported EPS: $1.66 vs estimate $1.48. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $348.37 (10.5% below current price).
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC paid $0.1000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 3.1%.
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC beat EPS estimates by 22.7%
Reported EPS: $1.36 vs estimate $1.11. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $348.37 (10.5% below current price).
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC stock split 1:1
Stock splits don't change fundamental value, but they can affect per-share metrics. Our models automatically adjust for splits.
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC missed EPS estimates by 2.7%
Reported EPS: $1.77 vs estimate $1.82. Our Fair Value of $348.37 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WDC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Western Digital Corporation
What is Western Digital Corporation stock price today?
Western Digital Corporation (WDC) stock price is $389.10 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Western Digital Corporation do?
Western Digital Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells data storage devices and solutions based on hard disk drive (HDD) technology in the United States, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It offers internal HDDs, data center drives, data center platforms, external drives, portable drives, NAS for home and office, and accessories. It sells its data storage devices and solutions through its computer manufacturers, sales personnel, dealers, distributors, and retailers.
What is Western Digital Corporation market cap?
Western Digital Corporation has a market capitalization of $133.03B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is WDC in?
Western Digital Corporation operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Computer Hardware industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol WDC.
Is WDC stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Western Digital Corporation trades 11.7% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $348.37
- Current Price: $389.10
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is WDC stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 23 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Western Digital Corporation is $351.48, implying downside of 9.7% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $440.00
- Analyst Low Target: $182.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Western Digital Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Western Digital Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 31.7%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 81.8%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 27.2%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 57.3%
What are Western Digital Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.5B | Declining |
| Net Income | $1.9B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.3B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 38.8% | Rising |
What is WDC's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 36.8x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 27.4x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 31.3x
How volatile is WDC stock?
Western Digital Corporation has a beta of 1.83, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Western Digital Corporation have?
Western Digital Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $4.04B
- Total Debt: $4.80B
- Net Cash Position: $-760.0M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Western Digital Corporation's free cash flow?
Western Digital Corporation generated $3.90B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.67B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Western Digital Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Western Digital Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.1%
- Payout Ratio: 3.1%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 11
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -39.3%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Western Digital Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Western Digital Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 10.58, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Western Digital Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Western Digital Corporation scores 2.9/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is WDC's return on equity (ROE)?
Western Digital Corporation's return on equity is 41.1%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy WDC stock?
WDC shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol WDC
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is WDC a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Western Digital Corporation as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Western Digital Corporation?
The current CEO of Western Digital Corporation is Mr. Tiang Yew Tan.
What is WDC's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $10.58
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $14.17
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $8.96
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $14.10
Other Technology companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
WDC analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings