Okta, Inc. (OKTA) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Is Okta, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Okta, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 3.24 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $92.00 (Buy Zone). Moat rating: 2.9/5 stars.
Could Okta, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.24 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives OKTA's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1123 | 1.2 | 0.13 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.2644 | 1.4 | -0.37 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0267 | 3.3 | 0.09 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 5.145 | 0.6 | 3.09 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3006 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
How has OKTA's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.95 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.55 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.75 | Gray |
| 2026 | 3.24 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from OKTA's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Okta, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $2.30 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $1.31 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $3.79 | 43 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 60.1x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $100.28 (43 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Okta, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.9/5.
What makes up OKTA's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is OKTA's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -10.3% | — |
| 2024 | -4.7% | Rising |
| 2025 | 0.7% | Rising |
| 2026 | 3.5% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Okta, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Okta, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.9B | $2.6B | $1.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.2B | $0.0B | −$0.8B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.9B | $0.7B | $0.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 77.4% | 76.3% | 70.6% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our OKTA analysis
OKTA earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.85. Revenue estimate: $751.8M. Our current Fair Value: $92.00 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
OKTA analyst consensus: 76% bullish (34 of 45 analysts)
8 Strong Buy, 26 Buy, 10 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $100.28 (27.4% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $92.00.
OKTA beat EPS estimates by 6.3%
Reported EPS: $0.90 vs estimate $0.85. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $92.00 (16.9% above current price).
OKTA beat EPS estimates by 8.1%
Reported EPS: $0.82 vs estimate $0.76. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $92.00 (16.9% above current price).
OKTA beat EPS estimates by 7.6%
Reported EPS: $0.91 vs estimate $0.85. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $92.00 (16.9% above current price).
OKTA beat EPS estimates by 11.5%
Reported EPS: $0.86 vs estimate $0.77. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $92.00 (16.9% above current price).
OKTA beat EPS estimates by 6.0%
Reported EPS: $0.78 vs estimate $0.74. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $92.00 (16.9% above current price).
Common questions about Okta, Inc.
What is Okta, Inc. stock price today?
Okta, Inc. (OKTA) stock price is $78.70 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Okta, Inc. do?
Okta, Inc. operates as an identity partner in the United States and internationally. It offers Single Sign-on to secure access to cloud and on-premises applications from any device; Adaptive MFA for a risk-based layer of security for an organization's cloud, mobile, and web applications; API Access Management, which enables organizations to secure APIs as systems; Access Gateway, which extends the Okta platform to hybrid IT environments; Okta Device Access, which extends Okta platform's secure access management to the device login experience; Universal Directory for a cloud-based system of record.
What is Okta, Inc. market cap?
Okta, Inc. has a market capitalization of $13.95B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is OKTA in?
Okta, Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Software - Infrastructure industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol OKTA.
Is OKTA stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Okta, Inc. trades 14.5% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $92.00
- Current Price: $78.70
- Valuation Zone: Buy Zone
What is OKTA stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 43 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Okta, Inc. is $100.28, implying upside of 27.4% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $140.00
- Analyst Low Target: $75.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Okta, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Okta, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 9.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 8.3%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 9.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 11.6%
What are Okta, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.2B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.9B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 77.4% | Rising |
What is OKTA's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 60.1x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 18.6x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is OKTA stock?
Okta, Inc. has a beta of 0.76, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Okta, Inc. have?
Okta, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.55B
- Total Debt: $451.0M
- Net Cash Position: $2.10B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Okta, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Okta, Inc. generated $836.1M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $884.0M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Okta, Inc. pay a dividend?
Okta, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Okta, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Okta, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 3.24, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Okta, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Okta, Inc. scores 2.9/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is OKTA's return on equity (ROE)?
Okta, Inc.'s return on equity is 3.5%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy OKTA stock?
OKTA shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol OKTA
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is OKTA a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Okta, Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Okta, Inc.?
The current CEO of Okta, Inc. is Mr. Todd McKinnon.
What is OKTA's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $1.31
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $4.23
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $3.79
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $4.23
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
OKTA analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings