Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Is Applied Materials, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Applied Materials, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 16.3 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $342.58 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could Applied Materials, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 16.3 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives AMAT's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.3549 | 1.2 | 0.43 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 1.5214 | 1.4 | 2.13 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.2628 | 3.3 | 0.87 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 20.159 | 0.6 | 12.1 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.7815 | 1.0 | 0.78 |
How has AMAT's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17.52 | Safe |
| 2023 | 17.53 | Safe |
| 2024 | 16.53 | Safe |
| 2025 | 16.3 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from AMAT's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Applied Materials, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $9.76 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $8.66 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $11.07 | 32 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 41.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 35.1x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $422.97 (32 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Applied Materials, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up AMAT's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is AMAT's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 44.3% | — |
| 2023 | 36.3% | Declining |
| 2024 | 33.2% | Declining |
| 2025 | 35.4% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Applied Materials, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Applied Materials, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 18.3%. FCF covers the dividend 5.3x. 22 consecutive years of payments.
Applied Materials, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.4B | $27.2B | $25.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $7.0B | $7.2B | $6.5B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.7B | $7.5B | $4.6B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 48.7% | 47.5% | 46.5% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our AMAT analysis
AMAT earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.67. Revenue estimate: $7.68B. Our current Fair Value: $342.58 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
AMAT analyst consensus: 81% bullish (29 of 36 analysts)
5 Strong Buy, 24 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $422.97 (4.8% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $342.58.
AMAT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT paid $0.4600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 18.3%.
AMAT beat EPS estimates by 7.9%
Reported EPS: $2.38 vs estimate $2.21. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $342.58 (15.1% below current price).
AMAT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT paid $0.4600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 18.3%.
AMAT beat EPS estimates by 3.6%
Reported EPS: $2.17 vs estimate $2.09. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $342.58 (15.1% below current price).
AMAT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT paid $0.4600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 18.3%.
AMAT beat EPS estimates by 5.1%
Reported EPS: $2.48 vs estimate $2.36. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $342.58 (15.1% below current price).
AMAT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT paid $0.4600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 18.3%.
AMAT beat EPS estimates by 3.5%
Reported EPS: $2.39 vs estimate $2.31. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $342.58 (15.1% below current price).
AMAT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AMAT paid $0.4000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 18.3%.
AMAT beat EPS estimates by 3.7%
Reported EPS: $2.38 vs estimate $2.30. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $342.58 (15.1% below current price).
AMAT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Applied Materials, Inc.
What is Applied Materials, Inc. stock price today?
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) stock price is $403.48 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Applied Materials, Inc. do?
Applied Materials, Inc. provides materials engineering solutions, equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor and related industries in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services (AGS) segments.
What is Applied Materials, Inc. market cap?
Applied Materials, Inc. has a market capitalization of $320.21B, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is AMAT in?
Applied Materials, Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol AMAT.
Is AMAT stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Applied Materials, Inc. trades 17.8% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $342.58
- Current Price: $403.48
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is AMAT stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 32 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Applied Materials, Inc. is $422.97, implying upside of 4.8% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $500.00
- Analyst Low Target: $280.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Applied Materials, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Applied Materials, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 10.9%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 17.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 20.0%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 27.2%
What are Applied Materials, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $7.0B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.7B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 48.7% | Stable |
What is AMAT's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 41.3x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 28.7x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 35.1x
How volatile is AMAT stock?
Applied Materials, Inc. has a beta of 1.64, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Applied Materials, Inc. have?
Applied Materials, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $8.51B
- Total Debt: $7.19B
- Net Cash Position: $1.32B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Applied Materials, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Applied Materials, Inc. generated $4.34B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $8.72B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Applied Materials, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Applied Materials, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.5%
- Payout Ratio: 18.3%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 22
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -13.3%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Applied Materials, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Applied Materials, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 16.30, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Applied Materials, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Applied Materials, Inc. scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is AMAT's return on equity (ROE)?
Applied Materials, Inc.'s return on equity is 38.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy AMAT stock?
AMAT shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol AMAT
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is AMAT a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Applied Materials, Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Applied Materials, Inc.?
The current CEO of Applied Materials, Inc. is Mr. Gary E. Dickerson.
What is AMAT's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $9.76
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $14.07
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $11.07
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $14.07
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
AMAT analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings