ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Semiconductors
Is ON Semiconductor Corporation a safe investment right now?
ON Semiconductor Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 6.24 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $54.00 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could ON Semiconductor Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 6.24 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives ON's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.3621 | 1.2 | 0.43 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.6581 | 1.4 | 0.92 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0161 | 3.3 | 0.05 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 7.2563 | 0.6 | 4.35 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4787 | 1.0 | 0.48 |
How has ON's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.89 | Safe |
| 2023 | 6.19 | Safe |
| 2024 | 6.2 | Safe |
| 2025 | 6.24 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from ON's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is ON Semiconductor Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $1.35 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $0.29 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $2.93 | 29 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 306.9x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $70.17 (29 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does ON Semiconductor Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up ON's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is ON's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 26.2% | — |
| 2023 | 23.5% | Declining |
| 2024 | 15.7% | Declining |
| 2025 | 1.9% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is ON Semiconductor Corporation's dividend safe?
ON Semiconductor Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.0B | $7.1B | $8.3B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.1B | $1.6B | $1.9B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.4B | $1.2B | $1.6B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 33.1% | 45.4% | 49.0% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our ON analysis
ON earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.61. Revenue estimate: $1.49B. Our current Fair Value: $54.00 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
ON analyst consensus: 35% bullish (12 of 34 analysts)
1 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 20 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $70.17 (21.1% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $54.00.
ON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON missed EPS estimates by 24.3%
Reported EPS: $0.45 vs estimate $0.59. Our Fair Value of $54.00 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ON filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON beat EPS estimates by 17.6%
Reported EPS: $0.63 vs estimate $0.54. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $54.00 (39.3% below current price).
ON filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON missed EPS estimates by 0.4%
Reported EPS: $0.53 vs estimate $0.53. Our Fair Value of $54.00 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ON filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON beat EPS estimates by 9.6%
Reported EPS: $0.55 vs estimate $0.50. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $54.00 (39.3% below current price).
ON filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON missed EPS estimates by 2.4%
Reported EPS: $0.95 vs estimate $0.97. Our Fair Value of $54.00 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ON filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about ON Semiconductor Corporation
What is ON Semiconductor Corporation stock price today?
ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) stock price is $88.99 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does ON Semiconductor Corporation do?
ON Semiconductor Corporation provides intelligent sensing and power solutions in Hong Kong, Singapore, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Power Solutions Group, Analog and Mixed-Signal Group, and Intelligent Sensing Group. The Power Solutions Group segment offers discrete, module, and integrated semiconductor devices designed to enable power conversion, including power switching, signal conditioning, and circuit protection technologies.
What is ON Semiconductor Corporation market cap?
ON Semiconductor Corporation has a market capitalization of $35.06B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is ON in?
ON Semiconductor Corporation operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Semiconductors industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ON.
Is ON stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, ON Semiconductor Corporation trades 64.8% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $54.00
- Current Price: $88.99
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is ON stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 29 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for ON Semiconductor Corporation is $70.17, implying downside of 21.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $100.00
- Analyst Low Target: $56.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is ON Semiconductor Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for ON Semiconductor Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 4.9%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 24.8%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 10.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 38.1%
What are ON Semiconductor Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.0B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.4B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 33.1% | Declining |
What is ON's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 306.9x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 22.0x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is ON stock?
ON Semiconductor Corporation has a beta of 1.52, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does ON Semiconductor Corporation have?
ON Semiconductor Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.55B
- Total Debt: $3.25B
- Net Cash Position: $-705.6M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is ON Semiconductor Corporation's free cash flow?
ON Semiconductor Corporation generated $1.56B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.76B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does ON Semiconductor Corporation pay a dividend?
ON Semiconductor Corporation does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is ON Semiconductor Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
ON Semiconductor Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 6.24, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does ON Semiconductor Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
ON Semiconductor Corporation scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is ON's return on equity (ROE)?
ON Semiconductor Corporation's return on equity is 1.5%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy ON stock?
ON shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol ON
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is ON a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies ON Semiconductor Corporation as Pure Speculation. It lacks the financial stability or valuation margin typically required for value investing. This stock is considered high risk.
Who is the CEO of ON Semiconductor Corporation?
The current CEO of ON Semiconductor Corporation is Mr. Hassane S. El-Khoury.
What is ON's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $0.29
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $4.05
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $2.93
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $4.05
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
ON analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings