Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Software - Application
Is Autodesk, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Autodesk, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 4.15 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $324.40 (Strong Buy Zone). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Autodesk, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.15 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives ADSK's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0695 | 1.2 | -0.08 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.1149 | 1.4 | -0.16 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1439 | 3.3 | 0.47 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 5.5705 | 0.6 | 3.34 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.578 | 1.0 | 0.58 |
How has ADSK's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4.3 | Safe |
| 2024 | 4.5 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.46 | Safe |
| 2026 | 4.15 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from ADSK's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Autodesk, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $8.11 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $5.23 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $12.42 | 32 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 47.4x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $326.63 (32 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Autodesk, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up ADSK's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is ADSK's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 29.7% | — |
| 2024 | 27.3% | Declining |
| 2025 | 27.9% | Stable |
| 2026 | 32.5% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Autodesk, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Autodesk, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.2B | $6.1B | $5.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.1B | $1.1B | $0.8B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.4B | $1.5B | $2.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 91.0% | 90.6% | 90.4% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our ADSK analysis
ADSK earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.84. Revenue estimate: $1.89B. Our current Fair Value: $324.40 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
ADSK analyst consensus: 88% bullish (29 of 33 analysts)
6 Strong Buy, 23 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $326.63 (31.9% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $324.40.
ADSK filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK beat EPS estimates by 7.8%
Reported EPS: $2.85 vs estimate $2.64. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $324.40 (31.0% above current price).
ADSK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK beat EPS estimates by 6.9%
Reported EPS: $2.67 vs estimate $2.50. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $324.40 (31.0% above current price).
ADSK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK beat EPS estimates by 7.0%
Reported EPS: $2.62 vs estimate $2.45. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $324.40 (31.0% above current price).
ADSK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK beat EPS estimates by 6.7%
Reported EPS: $2.29 vs estimate $2.15. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $324.40 (31.0% above current price).
ADSK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK beat EPS estimates by 7.0%
Reported EPS: $2.29 vs estimate $2.14. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $324.40 (31.0% above current price).
ADSK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ADSK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Autodesk, Inc.
What is Autodesk, Inc. stock price today?
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) stock price is $247.57 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Autodesk, Inc. do?
Autodesk, Inc. engages in the provision of 3D design, engineering, and entertainment technology solutions worldwide. It offers AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution; Autodesk Build, a toolset for managing, sharing, and accessing project documents for streamlined workflows between the office, trailer, and jobsite; Revit, a software built for building information modeling to help professionals design, build, and maintain energy-efficient buildings; Autodesk BIM Collaborate Pro, cloud-based design collaboration and design management software; BuildingConnected, a SaaS preconstruction solution; and Tandem, a cloud-based platform that transforms the built asset lifecycle.
What is Autodesk, Inc. market cap?
Autodesk, Inc. has a market capitalization of $52.48B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is ADSK in?
Autodesk, Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Software - Application industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ADSK.
Is ADSK stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Autodesk, Inc. trades 23.7% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $324.40
- Current Price: $247.57
- Valuation Zone: Strong Buy Zone
What is ADSK stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 32 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Autodesk, Inc. is $326.63, implying upside of 31.9% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $456.00
- Analyst Low Target: $246.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Autodesk, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Autodesk, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 13.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 19.1%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 10.6%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 13.4%
What are Autodesk, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.4B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 91.0% | Stable |
What is ADSK's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 47.4x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 17.6x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is ADSK stock?
Autodesk, Inc. has a beta of 1.43, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Autodesk, Inc. have?
Autodesk, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.60B
- Total Debt: $2.73B
- Net Cash Position: $-137.0M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Autodesk, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Autodesk, Inc. generated $2.79B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.45B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Autodesk, Inc. pay a dividend?
Autodesk, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Autodesk, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Autodesk, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 4.15, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Autodesk, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Autodesk, Inc. scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is ADSK's return on equity (ROE)?
Autodesk, Inc.'s return on equity is 39.7%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy ADSK stock?
ADSK shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol ADSK
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is ADSK a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Autodesk, Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Autodesk, Inc.?
The current CEO of Autodesk, Inc. is Dr. Andrew Anagnost Ph.D..
What is ADSK's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $5.22
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $14.08
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $12.42
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $14.08
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
ADSK analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings