Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Semiconductors
Is Texas Instruments Incorporated a safe investment right now?
Texas Instruments Incorporated's Altman Z-Score of 10.64 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $215.28 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Texas Instruments Incorporated go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 10.64 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives TXN's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.3062 | 1.2 | 0.37 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 1.5104 | 1.4 | 2.11 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1808 | 3.3 | 0.6 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 11.7492 | 0.6 | 7.05 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.5113 | 1.0 | 0.51 |
How has TXN's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 15.28 | Safe |
| 2023 | 12.39 | Safe |
| 2024 | 10.38 | Safe |
| 2025 | 10.64 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from TXN's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Texas Instruments Incorporated actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $5.85 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $5.45 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $6.46 | 31 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 43.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 36.8x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $228.71 (31 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Texas Instruments Incorporated have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up TXN's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is TXN's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 44.0% | — |
| 2023 | 27.6% | Declining |
| 2024 | 19.5% | Declining |
| 2025 | 20.6% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Texas Instruments Incorporated's dividend safe?
Can Texas Instruments Incorporated afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 100.9%. FCF covers the dividend 1.4x. 55 consecutive years of payments.
Texas Instruments Incorporated's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.7B | $15.6B | $20.0B | Declining |
| Net Income | $5.0B | $4.8B | $8.7B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.6B | $1.5B | $5.9B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 57.0% | 58.1% | 68.8% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our TXN analysis
TXN analyst consensus: 43% bullish (15 of 35 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 17 Hold, 2 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $228.71 (3.2% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $215.28.
TXN beat EPS estimates by 23.1%
Reported EPS: $1.68 vs estimate $1.36. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $215.28 (8.9% below current price).
TXN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN paid $1.4200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 100.9%.
TXN missed EPS estimates by 2.9%
Reported EPS: $1.27 vs estimate $1.31. Our Fair Value of $215.28 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
TXN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN paid $1.4200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 100.9%.
TXN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN missed EPS estimates by 0.4%
Reported EPS: $1.48 vs estimate $1.49. Our Fair Value of $215.28 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
TXN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN paid $1.3600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 100.9%.
TXN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN beat EPS estimates by 5.8%
Reported EPS: $1.41 vs estimate $1.33. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $215.28 (8.9% below current price).
TXN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN paid $1.3600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 100.9%.
TXN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN beat EPS estimates by 20.2%
Reported EPS: $1.28 vs estimate $1.06. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $215.28 (8.9% below current price).
TXN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
TXN paid $1.3600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 100.9%.
TXN beat EPS estimates by 8.3%
Reported EPS: $1.30 vs estimate $1.20. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $215.28 (8.9% below current price).
TXN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Texas Instruments Incorporated
What is Texas Instruments Incorporated stock price today?
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) stock price is $236.31 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Texas Instruments Incorporated do?
Texas Instruments Incorporated designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers in the United States, China, the rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and internationally. It operates through Analog and Embedded Processing segments. The Analog segment offers power products to manage power requirements across various voltage levels, including battery-management solutions, DC/DC switching regulators, AC/DC and isolated controllers and converters, power switches, linear regulators, voltage references, multiphase controllers and power stages, and lighting products.
What is Texas Instruments Incorporated market cap?
Texas Instruments Incorporated has a market capitalization of $215.15B, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is TXN in?
Texas Instruments Incorporated operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Semiconductors industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol TXN.
Is TXN stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Texas Instruments Incorporated trades 9.8% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $215.28
- Current Price: $236.31
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is TXN stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 31 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Texas Instruments Incorporated is $228.71, implying downside of 3.2% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $275.00
- Analyst Low Target: $175.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Texas Instruments Incorporated revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Texas Instruments Incorporated:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 11.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 18.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 10.5%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 19.9%
What are Texas Instruments Incorporated's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.7B | Declining |
| Net Income | $5.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.6B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 57.0% | Declining |
What is TXN's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 43.3x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 29.6x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 36.8x
How volatile is TXN stock?
Texas Instruments Incorporated has a beta of 0.99, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Texas Instruments Incorporated have?
Texas Instruments Incorporated's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $4.88B
- Total Debt: $14.78B
- Net Cash Position: $-9.90B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Texas Instruments Incorporated's free cash flow?
Texas Instruments Incorporated generated $-300.6M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $7.15B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Texas Instruments Incorporated pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Texas Instruments Incorporated pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.4%
- Payout Ratio: 100.9%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 55
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -19.5%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: C
Is Texas Instruments Incorporated at risk of going bankrupt?
Texas Instruments Incorporated's Altman Z-Score is 10.64, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Texas Instruments Incorporated have a durable competitive advantage?
Texas Instruments Incorporated scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is TXN's return on equity (ROE)?
Texas Instruments Incorporated's return on equity is 30.1%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy TXN stock?
TXN shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol TXN
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is TXN a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Texas Instruments Incorporated as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Texas Instruments Incorporated?
The current CEO of Texas Instruments Incorporated is Mr. Haviv Ilan.
What is TXN's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $5.46
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $7.97
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $6.46
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $7.74
Other Technology companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
TXN analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings