Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Is Corpay, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Corpay, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 1.55 places it in the distress zone. Our fair value estimate is $361.66 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Corpay, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.55 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives CPAY's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0126 | 1.2 | -0.02 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3887 | 1.4 | 0.54 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0737 | 3.3 | 0.24 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.0146 | 0.6 | 0.61 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.1715 | 1.0 | 0.17 |
How has CPAY's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.47 | Gray |
| 2023 | 2.47 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.17 | Gray |
| 2025 | 1.55 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from CPAY's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Corpay, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $19.34 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $15.03 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $25.82 | 13 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 22.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 18.7x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $379.54 (13 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Corpay, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up CPAY's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is CPAY's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 15.0% | — |
| 2023 | 16.7% | Rising |
| 2024 | 15.9% | Stable |
| 2025 | 14.0% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Corpay, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Corpay, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.5B | $4.0B | $3.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.1B | $1.0B | $1.0B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.3B | $1.8B | $0.6B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 78.6% | 78.1% | 77.7% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our CPAY analysis
CPAY earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $5.46. Revenue estimate: $1.21B. Our current Fair Value: $361.66 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
CPAY analyst consensus: 79% bullish (11 of 14 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $379.54 (14.8% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $361.66.
CPAY beat EPS estimates by 1.7%
Reported EPS: $6.04 vs estimate $5.94. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $361.66 (9.4% above current price).
CPAY beat EPS estimates by 1.0%
Reported EPS: $5.70 vs estimate $5.64. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $361.66 (9.4% above current price).
CPAY beat EPS estimates by 0.1%
Reported EPS: $5.13 vs estimate $5.12. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $361.66 (9.4% above current price).
CPAY missed EPS estimates by 0.1%
Reported EPS: $4.51 vs estimate $4.51. Our Fair Value of $361.66 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
CPAY missed EPS estimates by 20.1%
Reported EPS: $3.44 vs estimate $4.31. Our Fair Value of $361.66 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
Common questions about Corpay, Inc.
What is Corpay, Inc. stock price today?
Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) stock price is $330.70 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Corpay, Inc. do?
Corpay, Inc. operates as a payments company that helps businesses and consumers to manage and pay their expenses. It operates through Corporate Payments, Vehicle Payments, Lodging Payments, and Other segments. It offers vehicle payment solutions for fuel, tolls and parking, vehicle compliance, auto insurance and road assistance, fleet maintenance, and long-haul transportation services, as well as prepaid food and transportation vouchers and cards.
What is Corpay, Inc. market cap?
Corpay, Inc. has a market capitalization of $22.50B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is CPAY in?
Corpay, Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Software - Infrastructure industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol CPAY.
Is CPAY stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Corpay, Inc. trades 8.6% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $361.66
- Current Price: $330.70
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is CPAY stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 13 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Corpay, Inc. is $379.54, implying upside of 14.8% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $415.00
- Analyst Low Target: $340.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Corpay, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Corpay, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 16.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 20.8%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 10.1%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 14.7%
What are Corpay, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.3B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 78.6% | Stable |
What is CPAY's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 22.0x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 11.2x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 18.7x
How volatile is CPAY stock?
Corpay, Inc. has a beta of 0.85, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Corpay, Inc. have?
Corpay, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.42B
- Total Debt: $10.29B
- Net Cash Position: $-7.87B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Corpay, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Corpay, Inc. generated $1.89B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.50B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Corpay, Inc. pay a dividend?
Corpay, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Corpay, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Corpay, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 1.55, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Corpay, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Corpay, Inc. scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is CPAY's return on equity (ROE)?
Corpay, Inc.'s return on equity is 29.1%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy CPAY stock?
CPAY shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol CPAY
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is CPAY a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Corpay, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Corpay, Inc.?
The current CEO of Corpay, Inc. is Mr. Ronald F. Clarke.
What is CPAY's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $15.01
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $29.62
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $25.82
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $29.62
Other Technology companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CPAY analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings