Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Semiconductors
Is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 70.31 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $653.60 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 70.31 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives MPWR's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.4326 | 1.2 | 0.52 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.6222 | 1.4 | 0.87 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1737 | 3.3 | 0.57 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 112.8102 | 0.6 | 67.69 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.6653 | 1.0 | 0.67 |
How has MPWR's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 117.8 | Safe |
| 2023 | 119.41 | Safe |
| 2024 | 81.91 | Safe |
| 2025 | 70.31 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from MPWR's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $16.34 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $12.86 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $21.57 | 14 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 119.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $1,389.00 (14 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up MPWR's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is MPWR's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 31.6% | — |
| 2023 | 23.5% | Declining |
| 2024 | 18.3% | Declining |
| 2025 | 20.6% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 48.5%. FCF covers the dividend 1.4x. 14 consecutive years of payments.
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.8B | $2.2B | $1.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.6B | $1.6B | $0.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.7B | $0.6B | $0.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 55.2% | 55.3% | 58.4% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our MPWR analysis
MPWR earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $4.90. Revenue estimate: $782.1M. Our current Fair Value: $653.60 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
MPWR analyst consensus: 88% bullish (14 of 16 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $1389.00 (8.7% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $653.60.
MPWR paid $2.0000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 48.5%.
MPWR filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPWR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPWR beat EPS estimates by 1.1%
Reported EPS: $4.79 vs estimate $4.74. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $653.60 (57.1% below current price).
MPWR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPWR paid $1.5600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 48.5%.
MPWR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPWR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPWR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPWR beat EPS estimates by 2.0%
Reported EPS: $4.73 vs estimate $4.64. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $653.60 (57.1% below current price).
MPWR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPWR paid $1.5600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 48.5%.
MPWR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPWR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPWR beat EPS estimates by 2.2%
Reported EPS: $4.21 vs estimate $4.12. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $653.60 (57.1% below current price).
MPWR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPWR paid $1.5600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 48.5%.
MPWR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPWR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPWR beat EPS estimates by 0.9%
Reported EPS: $4.04 vs estimate $4.00. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $653.60 (57.1% below current price).
MPWR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPWR paid $1.5600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 48.5%.
MPWR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPWR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPWR filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MPWR beat EPS estimates by 2.9%
Reported EPS: $4.09 vs estimate $3.98. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $653.60 (57.1% below current price).
MPWR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
What is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. stock price today?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) stock price is $1522.04 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. do?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. provides semiconductor-based power electronics solutions in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, Europe, the United States, Japan, and internationally. It offers direct current (DC) to DC solutions to convert and control voltages within a range of electronic systems, such as cloud-based and on-premises CPU servers and workstations, AI systems, memory, storage solutions, notebooks, infotainment, power sources, home appliances, network infrastructure, and satellite communications.
What is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. market cap?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. has a market capitalization of $74.76B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is MPWR in?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Semiconductors industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol MPWR.
Is MPWR stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. trades 132.9% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $653.60
- Current Price: $1522.04
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is MPWR stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 14 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. is $1389.00, implying downside of 8.7% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $1650.00
- Analyst Low Target: $1000.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 21.6%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 21.4%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 17.5%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 20.2%
What are Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.6B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.7B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 55.2% | Declining |
What is MPWR's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 119.0x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 58.6x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is MPWR stock?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. has a beta of 1.48, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. have?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.26B
- Total Debt: $24.1M
- Net Cash Position: $1.23B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. generated $408.8M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $838.2M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.4%
- Payout Ratio: 48.5%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 14
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -3.6%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 70.31, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is MPWR's return on equity (ROE)?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s return on equity is 19.2%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy MPWR stock?
MPWR shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol MPWR
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is MPWR a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.?
The current CEO of Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. is Mr. Michael R. Hsing.
What is MPWR's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $12.79
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $25.96
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $21.57
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $25.92
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
MPWR analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings