Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Technology · Software - Application
Is Fair Isaac Corporation a safe investment right now?
Fair Isaac Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 9.86 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $949.52 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could Fair Isaac Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 9.86 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives FICO's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0771 | 1.2 | -0.09 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 2.4371 | 1.4 | 3.41 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.5012 | 3.3 | 1.65 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 6.3683 | 0.6 | 3.82 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.0657 | 1.0 | 1.07 |
How has FICO's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11.35 | Safe |
| 2023 | 11.58 | Safe |
| 2024 | 10.93 | Safe |
| 2025 | 9.86 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from FICO's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Fair Isaac Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $31.03 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $26.54 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $41.59 | 20 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 36.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 30.6x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $1,676.82 (20 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Fair Isaac Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up FICO's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is FICO's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 51.4% | — |
| 2023 | 55.3% | Rising |
| 2024 | 60.0% | Rising |
| 2025 | 60.0% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Fair Isaac Corporation's dividend safe?
Fair Isaac Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.0B | $1.7B | $1.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.7B | $0.5B | $0.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.7B | $0.6B | $0.5B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 82.2% | 79.7% | 78.1% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our FICO analysis
FICO earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $10.99. Revenue estimate: $630.5M. Our current Fair Value: $949.52 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
FICO analyst consensus: 71% bullish (15 of 21 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $1676.82 (72.8% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $949.52.
FICO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO beat EPS estimates by 3.5%
Reported EPS: $7.33 vs estimate $7.08. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $949.52 (2.1% below current price).
FICO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO beat EPS estimates by 5.2%
Reported EPS: $7.74 vs estimate $7.36. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $949.52 (2.1% below current price).
FICO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO beat EPS estimates by 11.3%
Reported EPS: $8.57 vs estimate $7.70. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $949.52 (2.1% below current price).
FICO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO beat EPS estimates by 4.9%
Reported EPS: $7.81 vs estimate $7.44. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $949.52 (2.1% below current price).
FICO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO missed EPS estimates by 4.8%
Reported EPS: $5.79 vs estimate $6.08. Our Fair Value of $949.52 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
FICO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FICO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Fair Isaac Corporation
What is Fair Isaac Corporation stock price today?
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) stock price is $970.17 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Fair Isaac Corporation do?
Fair Isaac Corporation provides analytics software in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Scores and Software. The Scores segment offers business-to-business scoring solutions and services that give clients access to predictive credit and other scores that can be integrated into their transaction streams and decision-making processes, as well as business-to-consumer scoring solutions comprising myFICO.com subscription offerings.
What is Fair Isaac Corporation market cap?
Fair Isaac Corporation has a market capitalization of $23.01B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is FICO in?
Fair Isaac Corporation operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Software - Application industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol FICO.
Is FICO stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Fair Isaac Corporation trades 2.2% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $949.52
- Current Price: $970.17
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is FICO stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 20 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Fair Isaac Corporation is $1676.82, implying upside of 72.8% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $2400.00
- Analyst Low Target: $1032.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Fair Isaac Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Fair Isaac Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 24.5%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 39.2%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 16.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 27.1%
What are Fair Isaac Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.7B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.7B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 82.2% | Rising |
What is FICO's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 36.0x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 18.4x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 30.6x
How volatile is FICO stock?
Fair Isaac Corporation has a beta of 1.38, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Fair Isaac Corporation have?
Fair Isaac Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $162.0M
- Total Debt: $3.21B
- Net Cash Position: $-3.05B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Fair Isaac Corporation's free cash flow?
Fair Isaac Corporation generated $573.2M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $758.9M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Fair Isaac Corporation pay a dividend?
Fair Isaac Corporation does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Fair Isaac Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Fair Isaac Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 9.86, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Fair Isaac Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Fair Isaac Corporation scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
How do I buy FICO stock?
FICO shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol FICO
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is FICO a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Fair Isaac Corporation as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Fair Isaac Corporation?
The current CEO of Fair Isaac Corporation is Mr. William J. Lansing J.D..
What is FICO's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $26.97
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $52.87
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $41.59
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $52.87
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
FICO analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings