Semtech Corporation (SMTC) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Semiconductors
Is Semtech Corporation a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for Semtech Corporation (SMTC) stock is $205.25, versus a market price of $140.35 — Watch — Analyst Anchor. Analyst Consensus (12 analysts) — EPS model not applicable at negative earnings.
Semtech Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 9.73 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $205.25 (Watch — Analyst Anchor). Moat rating: 2.3/5 stars.
Could Semtech Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 9.73 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives SMTC's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.2689 | 1.2 | 0.32 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.3092 | 1.4 | -0.43 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.0048 | 3.3 | -0.02 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 15.1911 | 0.6 | 9.11 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.7445 | 1.0 | 0.74 |
How has SMTC's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 5.35 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.06 | Safe |
| 2025 | 9.21 | Safe |
| 2026 | 9.73 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from SMTC's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
Semtech Corporation Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $0.00 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Trailing P/E | 0.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 0.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | N/A | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $205.25 (12 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Semtech Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up SMTC's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is SMTC's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4.3% | — |
| 2024 | -89.1% | Declining |
| 2025 | -9.3% | Rising |
| 2026 | -0.7% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Semtech Corporation's dividend safe?
Semtech Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0B | $0.9B | $0.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$0.0B | −$0.2B | $0.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.2B | $0.0B | $0.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 51.6% | 50.2% | 63.3% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our SMTC analysis
SMTC earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.61. Revenue estimate: $328.6M. Our current Fair Value: $205.25 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
SMTC analyst consensus: 86% bullish (12 of 14 analysts)
1 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $205.25 (46.2% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $205.25.
SMTC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC beat EPS estimates by 12.5%
Reported EPS: $0.51 vs estimate $0.45. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $205.25 (46.2% above current price).
SMTC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC beat EPS estimates by 2.0%
Reported EPS: $0.44 vs estimate $0.43. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $205.25 (46.2% above current price).
SMTC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC beat EPS estimates by 7.9%
Reported EPS: $0.48 vs estimate $0.45. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $205.25 (46.2% above current price).
SMTC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC beat EPS estimates by 2.2%
Reported EPS: $0.41 vs estimate $0.40. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $205.25 (46.2% above current price).
SMTC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC beat EPS estimates by 2.5%
Reported EPS: $0.38 vs estimate $0.37. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $205.25 (46.2% above current price).
SMTC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC beat EPS estimates by 25.6%
Reported EPS: $0.40 vs estimate $0.32. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $205.25 (46.2% above current price).
SMTC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SMTC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Semtech Corporation
What is Semtech Corporation stock price today?
Semtech Corporation (SMTC) stock price is $140.35 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Semtech Corporation do?
Semtech Corporation provides semiconductor, Internet of Things systems, and cloud connectivity service solutions in the Asia- Pacific, North America, and Europe. It operates in three segments: Signal Integrity, Analog Mixed Signal and Wireless, and IoT Systems and Connectivity. It provides signal integrity products, including a portfolio of optical and copper data communications and video transport products used in various infrastructure, and industrial applications; a portfolio of integrated circuits for data centers, enterprise networks, passive optical networks, wireless base station optical transceivers, and interface applications; and video products for broadcast applications, as well as video-over-IP technology for professional audio video applications.
What is Semtech Corporation market cap?
Semtech Corporation has a market capitalization of $13.07B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is SMTC in?
Semtech Corporation operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Semiconductors industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol SMTC.
Is SMTC stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Semtech Corporation trades 31.6% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $205.25
- Current Price: $140.35
- Valuation Zone: Watch — Analyst Anchor
What is SMTC stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 12 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Semtech Corporation is $205.25, implying upside of 46.2% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $230.00
- Analyst Low Target: $175.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Semtech Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Semtech Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 30.2%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 55.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 25.1%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 47.5%
What are Semtech Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$0.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 51.6% | Declining |
What is SMTC's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 35.6x
How volatile is SMTC stock?
Semtech Corporation has a beta of 2.35, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Semtech Corporation have?
Semtech Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $163.3M
- Total Debt: $517.6M
- Net Cash Position: $-354.3M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Semtech Corporation's free cash flow?
Semtech Corporation generated $132.5M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $189.5M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Semtech Corporation pay a dividend?
Semtech Corporation does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Semtech Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Semtech Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 9.73, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Semtech Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Semtech Corporation scores 2.3/5 stars (Weak moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is SMTC's return on equity (ROE)?
Semtech Corporation's return on equity is -5.8%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy SMTC stock?
SMTC shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol SMTC
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is SMTC a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Semtech Corporation as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Semtech Corporation?
The current CEO of Semtech Corporation is Dr. Hong Q. Hou Ph.D..
What is SMTC's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $-0.41
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $3.95
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $2.66
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $3.92
Other Technology companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
SMTC analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings