Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Is Confluent, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Confluent, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 3.35 places it in the safe zone. Fair value estimate is not available for this stock. Moat rating: 2.9/5 stars.
Could Confluent, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.35 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives CFLT's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.6453 | 1.2 | 0.77 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.7653 | 1.4 | -1.07 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.1273 | 3.3 | -0.42 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 6.1305 | 0.6 | 3.68 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3908 | 1.0 | 0.39 |
How has CFLT's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.03 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.69 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.45 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.35 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from CFLT's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Confluent, Inc. actually worth?
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Confluent, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.9/5.
What makes up CFLT's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is CFLT's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -25.0% | — |
| 2023 | -23.4% | Rising |
| 2024 | -20.4% | Rising |
| 2025 | -16.8% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Confluent, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Confluent, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2B | $1.0B | $0.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$0.3B | −$0.3B | −$0.5B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.0B | $0.0B | −$0.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 74.3% | 73.3% | 65.5% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our CFLT analysis
CFLT analyst consensus: 0% bullish (0 of 11 analysts)
0 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 11 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $31.00 (0.0% upside).
CFLT beat EPS estimates by 21.1%
Reported EPS: $0.12 vs estimate $0.10.
CFLT beat EPS estimates by 5.1%
Reported EPS: $-0.19 vs estimate $-0.20.
CFLT missed EPS estimates by 18.6%
Reported EPS: $-0.24 vs estimate $-0.20.
CFLT beat EPS estimates by 18.3%
Reported EPS: $0.08 vs estimate $0.07.
CFLT beat EPS estimates by 57.7%
Reported EPS: $0.09 vs estimate $0.06.
Common questions about Confluent, Inc.
What is Confluent, Inc. stock price today?
Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) stock price is $30.99 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Confluent, Inc. do?
Confluent, Inc. operates a data streaming platform in the United States and internationally. It provides platforms that allow customers to connect their applications, systems, and data layers comprising Confluent Cloud, a managed cloud-native software-as-a-service (SaaS); and Confluent Platform and Confluent Private Cloud, an enterprise-grade self-managed software.
What is Confluent, Inc. market cap?
Confluent, Inc. has a market capitalization of $11.13B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is CFLT in?
Confluent, Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Software - Infrastructure industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol CFLT.
Is CFLT stock overvalued or undervalued?
We do not have sufficient earnings data to produce a reliable fair value estimate for Confluent, Inc. at this time. Stocks without stable earnings history are difficult to value using traditional models.
What is CFLT stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 8 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Confluent, Inc. is $31.00, implying upside of 0.0% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $31.00
- Analyst Low Target: $31.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Confluent, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Confluent, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 17.7%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 21.7%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 15.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 27.3%
What are Confluent, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$0.3B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 74.3% | Rising |
What is CFLT's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 47.6x
How volatile is CFLT stock?
Confluent, Inc. has a beta of 0.95, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Confluent, Inc. have?
Confluent, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.05B
- Total Debt: $1.11B
- Net Cash Position: $948.6M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Confluent, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Confluent, Inc. generated $210.3M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $64.3M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Confluent, Inc. pay a dividend?
Confluent, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Confluent, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Confluent, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 3.35, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Confluent, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Confluent, Inc. scores 2.9/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is CFLT's return on equity (ROE)?
Confluent, Inc.'s return on equity is -27.7%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy CFLT stock?
CFLT shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol CFLT
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is CFLT a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Confluent, Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
What is CFLT's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $-0.86
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $0.65
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $0.51
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $0.65
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CFLT analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings