BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Technology · Information Technology Services
Is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. a safe investment right now?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 1.92 places it in the gray zone. Fair value estimate is not available for this stock. Moat rating: 2.3/5 stars.
Could BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.92 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives BBAI's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1621 | 1.2 | 0.19 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.9676 | 1.4 | -1.35 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.3326 | 3.3 | -1.1 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 6.7196 | 0.6 | 4.03 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.1427 | 1.0 | 0.14 |
How has BBAI's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.47 | Gray |
| 2023 | 3.01 | Safe |
| 2024 | -1.56 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.92 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from BBAI's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. actually worth?
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up BBAI's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is BBAI's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -57.0% | — |
| 2023 | -36.1% | Rising |
| 2024 | -203.9% | Declining |
| 2025 | -41.4% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s dividend safe?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.1B | $0.2B | $0.2B | Declining |
| Net Income | −$0.3B | −$0.3B | −$0.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.0B | −$0.0B | −$0.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 22.3% | 28.6% | 27.7% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our BBAI analysis
BBAI earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Revenue estimate: $33.6M.
BBAI analyst consensus: 33% bullish (1 of 3 analysts)
0 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $5.33 (33.6% upside).
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI beat EPS estimates by 83.3%
Reported EPS: $-0.01 vs estimate $-0.06.
BBAI filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI beat EPS estimates by 113.6%
Reported EPS: $0.01 vs estimate $-0.07.
BBAI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI missed EPS estimates by 1021.1%
Reported EPS: $-0.71 vs estimate $-0.06.
BBAI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI missed EPS estimates by 341.1%
Reported EPS: $-0.25 vs estimate $-0.06.
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI missed EPS estimates by 760.0%
Reported EPS: $-0.43 vs estimate $-0.05.
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
BBAI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
What is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. stock price today?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) stock price is $3.99 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. do?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence-powered decision intelligence solutions for national security, supply chain management, and digital identity markets. It offers supply chain and logistics solutions, such as Data Conflation at Scale, which offers a view of operations enabling real-time tracking of inventory and facilitating predictive analytics to optimize functions, including routes and delivery times; Discrete Event Simulation, a course of action analysis and digital twin solution; and Next-Gen Decision Support solution for macroeconomic and geopolitical forecasting.
What is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. market cap?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. has a market capitalization of $1.90B, classifying it as a small-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is BBAI in?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Information Technology Services industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol BBAI.
Is BBAI stock overvalued or undervalued?
We do not have sufficient earnings data to produce a reliable fair value estimate for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. at this time. Stocks without stable earnings history are difficult to value using traditional models.
What is BBAI stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 3 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is $5.33, implying upside of 33.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $6.00
- Analyst Low Target: $5.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 11.7%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 63.4%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 11.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): -25.0%
What are BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.1B | Declining |
| Net Income | −$0.3B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 22.3% | Declining |
What is BBAI's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): -19.9x
How volatile is BBAI stock?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. has a beta of 3.24, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. have?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $287.6M
- Total Debt: $114.8M
- Net Cash Position: $172.8M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s free cash flow?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. generated $-47.0M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $-42.0M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. pay a dividend?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 1.92, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. scores 2.3/5 stars (Weak moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is BBAI's return on equity (ROE)?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s return on equity is -96.7%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy BBAI stock?
BBAI shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol BBAI
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is BBAI a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. as Pure Speculation. It lacks the financial stability or valuation margin typically required for value investing. This stock is considered high risk.
Who is the CEO of BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.?
The current CEO of BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is Mr. Kevin McAleenan.
What is BBAI's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $-0.82
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $-0.20
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $-0.30
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $-0.38
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
BBAI analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings