XPO, Inc. (XPO) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Trucking
Is XPO, Inc. a safe investment right now?
XPO, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 3.88 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $135.60 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.3/5 stars.
Could XPO, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.88 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives XPO's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0092 | 1.2 | 0.01 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.1084 | 1.4 | 0.15 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0801 | 3.3 | 0.26 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 4.0994 | 0.6 | 2.46 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.9955 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
How has XPO's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.42 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.76 | Safe |
| 2024 | 4.01 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.88 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from XPO's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is XPO, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $3.39 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.64 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $4.51 | 24 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 84.1x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $207.04 (24 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does XPO, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.3/5.
What makes up XPO's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is XPO's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11.1% | — |
| 2023 | 9.2% | Declining |
| 2024 | 14.0% | Rising |
| 2025 | 12.7% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is XPO, Inc.'s dividend safe?
XPO, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.2B | $8.1B | $7.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.3B | $0.4B | $0.7B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.3B | $0.0B | $0.3B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 12.0% | 11.3% | 9.5% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our XPO analysis
XPO earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.88. Revenue estimate: $2.04B. Our current Fair Value: $135.60 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
XPO analyst consensus: 76% bullish (19 of 25 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 16 Buy, 4 Hold, 2 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $207.04 (6.4% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $135.60.
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO beat EPS estimates by 15.3%
Reported EPS: $0.88 vs estimate $0.76. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $135.60 (38.7% below current price).
XPO filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO beat EPS estimates by 5.6%
Reported EPS: $1.07 vs estimate $1.01. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $135.60 (38.7% below current price).
XPO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO beat EPS estimates by 6.2%
Reported EPS: $1.05 vs estimate $0.99. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $135.60 (38.7% below current price).
XPO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO beat EPS estimates by 12.1%
Reported EPS: $0.73 vs estimate $0.65. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $135.60 (38.7% below current price).
XPO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO beat EPS estimates by 41.6%
Reported EPS: $0.89 vs estimate $0.63. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $135.60 (38.7% below current price).
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XPO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about XPO, Inc.
What is XPO, Inc. stock price today?
XPO, Inc. (XPO) stock price is $221.12 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does XPO, Inc. do?
XPO, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation services in the United States, North America, France, the United Kingdom, and rest of Europe. It operates in two segments, North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) and European Transportation. The North American LTL segment provides shippers with geographic density and day-definite domestic and cross-border services to the U.S., Mexico, Canada, and the Caribbean.
What is XPO, Inc. market cap?
XPO, Inc. has a market capitalization of $25.96B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is XPO in?
XPO, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Trucking industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol XPO.
Is XPO stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, XPO, Inc. trades 63.1% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $135.60
- Current Price: $221.12
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is XPO stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 24 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for XPO, Inc. is $207.04, implying downside of 6.4% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $250.00
- Analyst Low Target: $95.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is XPO, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for XPO, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 4.7%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 21.0%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 6.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 28.2%
What are XPO, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.3B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.3B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 12.0% | Rising |
What is XPO's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 84.1x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 38.3x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is XPO stock?
XPO, Inc. has a beta of 1.72, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does XPO, Inc. have?
XPO, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $310.0M
- Total Debt: $4.17B
- Net Cash Position: $-3.86B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is XPO, Inc.'s free cash flow?
XPO, Inc. generated $266.5M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $986.0M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does XPO, Inc. pay a dividend?
XPO, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is XPO, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
XPO, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 3.88, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does XPO, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
XPO, Inc. scores 3.3/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is XPO's return on equity (ROE)?
XPO, Inc.'s return on equity is 18.2%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy XPO stock?
XPO shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol XPO
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is XPO a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies XPO, Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of XPO, Inc.?
The current CEO of XPO, Inc. is Mr. Mario A. Harik.
What is XPO's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $2.63
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $5.78
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $4.51
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $5.79
Other Industrials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
XPO analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings