Global Payments Inc. (GPN) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Specialty Business Services
Is Global Payments Inc. a safe investment right now?
Global Payments Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 0.94 places it in the distress zone. Our fair value estimate is $122.89 (Strong Buy Zone). Moat rating: 2.9/5 stars.
Could Global Payments Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 0.94 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives GPN's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0965 | 1.2 | 0.12 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.1113 | 1.4 | 0.16 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0358 | 3.3 | 0.12 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.6782 | 0.6 | 0.41 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.1445 | 1.0 | 0.14 |
How has GPN's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0.86 | Distress |
| 2023 | 0.78 | Distress |
| 2024 | 0.96 | Distress |
| 2025 | 0.94 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from GPN's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Global Payments Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $8.97 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $5.78 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $13.75 | 25 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 16.2x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 13.7x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $98.24 (25 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Global Payments Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.9/5.
What makes up GPN's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is GPN's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.8% | — |
| 2023 | 3.5% | Rising |
| 2024 | 5.5% | Rising |
| 2025 | 4.3% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Global Payments Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Global Payments Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 22.6%. FCF covers the dividend 5.9x. 26 consecutive years of payments.
Global Payments Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.7B | $7.7B | $9.0B | Declining |
| Net Income | $1.4B | $1.6B | $0.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.0B | $2.4B | $1.6B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 72.6% | 73.7% | 57.9% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our GPN analysis
GPN earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.84. Revenue estimate: $2.84B. Our current Fair Value: $122.89 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
GPN analyst consensus: 38% bullish (12 of 32 analysts)
0 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 18 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $98.24 (37.2% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $122.89.
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN paid $0.2500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 22.6%.
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN beat EPS estimates by 0.6%
Reported EPS: $3.18 vs estimate $3.16. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $122.89 (71.6% above current price).
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN paid $0.2500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 22.6%.
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN beat EPS estimates by 0.8%
Reported EPS: $3.26 vs estimate $3.23. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $122.89 (71.6% above current price).
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN paid $0.2500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 22.6%.
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN beat EPS estimates by 1.5%
Reported EPS: $3.10 vs estimate $3.06. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $122.89 (71.6% above current price).
GPN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN paid $0.2500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 22.6%.
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN missed EPS estimates by 1.0%
Reported EPS: $2.69 vs estimate $2.72. Our Fair Value of $122.89 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
GPN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN paid $0.2500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 22.6%.
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GPN missed EPS estimates by 0.2%
Reported EPS: $2.95 vs estimate $2.96. Our Fair Value of $122.89 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
GPN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Global Payments Inc.
What is Global Payments Inc. stock price today?
Global Payments Inc. (GPN) stock price is $71.62 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Global Payments Inc. do?
Global Payments Inc. provides payment technology and software solutions for card, check, and digital-based payments in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. It offers authorization, settlement and funding, customer support, chargeback resolution, reconciliation and dispute management, terminal rental, sales and deployment, payment security, and consolidated billing and reporting services.
What is Global Payments Inc. market cap?
Global Payments Inc. has a market capitalization of $20.05B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is GPN in?
Global Payments Inc. operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Specialty Business Services industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol GPN.
Is GPN stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Global Payments Inc. trades 41.7% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $122.89
- Current Price: $71.62
- Valuation Zone: Strong Buy Zone
What is GPN stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 25 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Global Payments Inc. is $98.24, implying upside of 37.2% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $194.00
- Analyst Low Target: $60.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Global Payments Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Global Payments Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 33.5%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 12.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 5.9%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 17.9%
What are Global Payments Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.7B | Declining |
| Net Income | $1.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 72.6% | Rising |
What is GPN's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 16.2x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 4.4x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 13.7x
How volatile is GPN stock?
Global Payments Inc. has a beta of 0.77, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Global Payments Inc. have?
Global Payments Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $8.34B
- Total Debt: $22.19B
- Net Cash Position: $-13.85B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Global Payments Inc.'s free cash flow?
Global Payments Inc. generated $1.75B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.66B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Global Payments Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Global Payments Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.4%
- Payout Ratio: 22.6%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 26
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -22.4%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Global Payments Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Global Payments Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 0.94, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Global Payments Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Global Payments Inc. scores 2.9/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is GPN's return on equity (ROE)?
Global Payments Inc.'s return on equity is 4.8%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy GPN stock?
GPN shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol GPN
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is GPN a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Global Payments Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
What is GPN's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $4.43
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $16.21
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $13.75
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $16.22
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
GPN analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings