Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Is Lockheed Martin Corporation a safe investment right now?
Lockheed Martin Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 3.46 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $547.14 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Lockheed Martin Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.46 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives LMT's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0339 | 1.2 | 0.04 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2345 | 1.4 | 0.33 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1176 | 3.3 | 0.39 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.4098 | 0.6 | 1.45 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.2541 | 1.0 | 1.25 |
How has LMT's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.03 | Safe |
| 2023 | 4.03 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.68 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.46 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from LMT's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Lockheed Martin Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $24.87 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $21.49 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $29.94 | 20 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 25.8x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 22.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $668.00 (20 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Lockheed Martin Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up LMT's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is LMT's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 29.4% | — |
| 2023 | 37.1% | Rising |
| 2024 | 27.3% | Declining |
| 2025 | 24.8% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Lockheed Martin Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Lockheed Martin Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 62.1%. FCF covers the dividend 2.0x. 51 consecutive years of payments.
Lockheed Martin Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $75.0B | $71.0B | $66.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | $5.0B | $5.3B | $5.7B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.9B | $5.3B | $6.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 10.2% | 9.8% | 12.6% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our LMT analysis
LMT earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $6.74. Revenue estimate: $18.28B. Our current Fair Value: $547.14 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
LMT analyst consensus: 27% bullish (6 of 22 analysts)
1 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 15 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $668.00 (20.3% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $547.14.
LMT paid $3.4500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 62.1%.
LMT beat EPS estimates by 0.9%
Reported EPS: $5.80 vs estimate $5.75. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $547.14 (1.5% below current price).
LMT filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
LMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LMT paid $3.4500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 62.1%.
LMT beat EPS estimates by 9.3%
Reported EPS: $6.95 vs estimate $6.36. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $547.14 (1.5% below current price).
LMT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
LMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LMT paid $3.3000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 62.1%.
LMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LMT missed EPS estimates by 77.6%
Reported EPS: $1.46 vs estimate $6.51. Our Fair Value of $547.14 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
LMT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
LMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LMT paid $3.3000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 62.1%.
LMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LMT beat EPS estimates by 14.7%
Reported EPS: $7.28 vs estimate $6.35. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $547.14 (1.5% below current price).
LMT filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
LMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LMT paid $3.3000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 62.1%.
LMT missed EPS estimates by 66.4%
Reported EPS: $2.22 vs estimate $6.60. Our Fair Value of $547.14 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
LMT filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
LMT filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Lockheed Martin Corporation
What is Lockheed Martin Corporation stock price today?
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) stock price is $555.43 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Lockheed Martin Corporation do?
Lockheed Martin Corporation, an aerospace and defense company, engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of technology systems, products, and services in the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Aeronautics; Missiles and Fire Control (MFC); Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS); and Space. The Aeronautics segment offers combat and air mobility aircraft, unmanned air vehicles, and related technologies.
What is Lockheed Martin Corporation market cap?
Lockheed Martin Corporation has a market capitalization of $128.01B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is LMT in?
Lockheed Martin Corporation operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Aerospace & Defense industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol LMT.
Is LMT stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Lockheed Martin Corporation trades 1.5% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $547.14
- Current Price: $555.43
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is LMT stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 20 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Lockheed Martin Corporation is $668.00, implying upside of 20.3% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $770.00
- Analyst Low Target: $520.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Lockheed Martin Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Lockheed Martin Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 5.5%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 39.3%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 5.0%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 6.8%
What are Lockheed Martin Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $75.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | $5.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.9B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 10.2% | Declining |
What is LMT's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 25.8x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 17.3x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 22.0x
How volatile is LMT stock?
Lockheed Martin Corporation has a beta of 0.24, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Lockheed Martin Corporation have?
Lockheed Martin Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $4.12B
- Total Debt: $22.77B
- Net Cash Position: $-18.65B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Lockheed Martin Corporation's free cash flow?
Lockheed Martin Corporation generated $5.28B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $8.56B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Lockheed Martin Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Lockheed Martin Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.3%
- Payout Ratio: 62.1%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 51
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -20.1%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Lockheed Martin Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Lockheed Martin Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 3.46, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Lockheed Martin Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Lockheed Martin Corporation scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is LMT's return on equity (ROE)?
Lockheed Martin Corporation's return on equity is 76.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy LMT stock?
LMT shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol LMT
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is LMT a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Lockheed Martin Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Lockheed Martin Corporation?
The current CEO of Lockheed Martin Corporation is Mr. James D. Taiclet Jr..
What is LMT's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $21.50
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $32.02
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $29.94
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $31.96
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
LMT analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings