Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Waste Management
Is Republic Services, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Republic Services, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.97 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $178.05 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.3/5 stars.
Could Republic Services, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.97 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives RSG's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0531 | 1.2 | -0.06 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3016 | 1.4 | 0.42 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0917 | 3.3 | 0.3 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 3.021 | 0.6 | 1.81 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4948 | 1.0 | 0.49 |
How has RSG's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 0.0 | Distress |
| 2022 | 2.99 | Gray |
| 2023 | 2.89 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.97 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from RSG's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Republic Services, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $7.01 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $6.85 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $7.24 | 24 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 29.9x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 25.4x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $245.38 (24 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Republic Services, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.3/5.
What makes up RSG's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is RSG's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10.4% | — |
| 2023 | 11.6% | Rising |
| 2024 | 12.3% | Stable |
| 2025 | 12.4% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Republic Services, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Republic Services, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 35.2%. FCF covers the dividend 2.9x. 24 consecutive years of payments.
Republic Services, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.6B | $16.0B | $13.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.1B | $2.0B | $1.5B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.4B | $2.1B | $1.7B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 42.0% | 41.7% | 39.3% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our RSG analysis
RSG earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.64. Revenue estimate: $4.10B. Our current Fair Value: $178.05 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
RSG analyst consensus: 59% bullish (16 of 27 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 11 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $245.38 (19.5% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $178.05.
RSG paid $0.6250/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 35.2%.
RSG filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG beat EPS estimates by 7.9%
Reported EPS: $1.76 vs estimate $1.63. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $178.05 (13.3% below current price).
RSG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG paid $0.6250/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 35.2%.
RSG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG beat EPS estimates by 6.5%
Reported EPS: $1.90 vs estimate $1.78. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $178.05 (13.3% below current price).
RSG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG paid $0.6250/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 35.2%.
RSG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG beat EPS estimates by 0.8%
Reported EPS: $1.77 vs estimate $1.76. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $178.05 (13.3% below current price).
RSG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG paid $0.5800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 35.2%.
RSG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG beat EPS estimates by 3.1%
Reported EPS: $1.58 vs estimate $1.53. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $178.05 (13.3% below current price).
RSG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG paid $0.5800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 35.2%.
RSG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG beat EPS estimates by 13.6%
Reported EPS: $1.58 vs estimate $1.39. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $178.05 (13.3% below current price).
RSG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RSG paid $0.5800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 35.2%.
Common questions about Republic Services, Inc.
What is Republic Services, Inc. stock price today?
Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) stock price is $205.29 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Republic Services, Inc. do?
Republic Services, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, offers environmental services in the United States and Canada. It is involved in the collection and processing of recyclable, solid waste, and industrial waste materials; transportation and disposal of non-hazardous and hazardous waste streams; and other environmental solutions. Its residential collection services include curbside collection of material for transport to transfer stations, landfills, recycling centers, and organics processing facilities; supply of recycling and waste containers; and renting of compactors.
What is Republic Services, Inc. market cap?
Republic Services, Inc. has a market capitalization of $63.43B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is RSG in?
Republic Services, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Waste Management industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol RSG.
Is RSG stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Republic Services, Inc. trades 15.3% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $178.05
- Current Price: $205.29
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is RSG stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 24 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Republic Services, Inc. is $245.38, implying upside of 19.5% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $270.00
- Analyst Low Target: $200.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Republic Services, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Republic Services, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 3.4%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 3.2%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 5.1%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 11.1%
What are Republic Services, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.4B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 42.0% | Rising |
What is RSG's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 29.9x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 25.5x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 25.4x
How volatile is RSG stock?
Republic Services, Inc. has a beta of 0.54, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Republic Services, Inc. have?
Republic Services, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $76.0M
- Total Debt: $13.81B
- Net Cash Position: $-13.73B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Republic Services, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Republic Services, Inc. generated $1.77B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $4.30B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Republic Services, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Republic Services, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.2%
- Payout Ratio: 35.2%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 24
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -6.7%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Republic Services, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Republic Services, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 2.97, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Republic Services, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Republic Services, Inc. scores 3.3/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is RSG's return on equity (ROE)?
Republic Services, Inc.'s return on equity is 18.3%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy RSG stock?
RSG shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol RSG
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is RSG a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Republic Services, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Republic Services, Inc.?
The current CEO of Republic Services, Inc. is Mr. Jon Vander Ark.
What is RSG's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $6.86
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $8.05
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $7.24
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $8.05
Other Industrials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
RSG analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings