CSX Corporation (CSX) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Industrials · Railroads
Is CSX Corporation a safe investment right now?
CSX Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 2.57 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $39.75 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could CSX Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.57 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives CSX's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0133 | 1.2 | -0.02 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2417 | 1.4 | 0.34 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1056 | 3.3 | 0.35 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.6314 | 0.6 | 1.58 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3226 | 1.0 | 0.32 |
How has CSX's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.86 | Gray |
| 2023 | 2.7 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.66 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.57 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from CSX's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is CSX Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $1.67 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $1.54 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $1.86 | 23 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 28.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 23.8x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $42.11 (23 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does CSX Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up CSX's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is CSX's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19.9% | — |
| 2023 | 18.5% | Declining |
| 2024 | 17.4% | Declining |
| 2025 | 14.4% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is CSX Corporation's dividend safe?
Can CSX Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 33.8%. FCF covers the dividend 4.0x. 46 consecutive years of payments.
CSX Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.1B | $14.5B | $14.9B | Declining |
| Net Income | $2.9B | $3.5B | $4.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.7B | $2.7B | $3.4B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 33.2% | 36.8% | 38.5% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our CSX analysis
CSX analyst consensus: 67% bullish (16 of 24 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $42.11 (2.5% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $39.75.
CSX beat EPS estimates by 10.6%
Reported EPS: $0.43 vs estimate $0.39. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $39.75 (7.9% below current price).
CSX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX paid $0.1400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 33.8%.
CSX filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX missed EPS estimates by 5.3%
Reported EPS: $0.39 vs estimate $0.41. Our Fair Value of $39.75 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
CSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX paid $0.1300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 33.8%.
CSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX beat EPS estimates by 3.8%
Reported EPS: $0.44 vs estimate $0.42. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $39.75 (7.9% below current price).
CSX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX paid $0.1300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 33.8%.
CSX beat EPS estimates by 5.7%
Reported EPS: $0.44 vs estimate $0.42. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $39.75 (7.9% below current price).
CSX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX paid $0.1300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 33.8%.
CSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX missed EPS estimates by 7.7%
Reported EPS: $0.34 vs estimate $0.37. Our Fair Value of $39.75 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
CSX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX paid $0.1300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 33.8%.
CSX filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CSX beat EPS estimates by 0.0%
Reported EPS: $0.42 vs estimate $0.42. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $39.75 (7.9% below current price).
CSX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about CSX Corporation
What is CSX Corporation stock price today?
CSX Corporation (CSX) stock price is $43.18 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does CSX Corporation do?
CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail-based freight transportation services in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments: rail and trucking. It offers rail services; and transportation of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services, such as rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations.
What is CSX Corporation market cap?
CSX Corporation has a market capitalization of $80.31B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is CSX in?
CSX Corporation operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Railroads industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol CSX.
Is CSX stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, CSX Corporation trades 8.6% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $39.75
- Current Price: $43.18
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is CSX stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 23 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for CSX Corporation is $42.11, implying downside of 2.5% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $50.00
- Analyst Low Target: $30.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is CSX Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for CSX Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 4.0%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 15.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 4.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 12.5%
What are CSX Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.1B | Declining |
| Net Income | $2.9B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.7B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 33.2% | Declining |
What is CSX's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 28.0x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 20.6x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 23.8x
How volatile is CSX stock?
CSX Corporation has a beta of 1.25, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does CSX Corporation have?
CSX Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $675.0M
- Total Debt: $19.51B
- Net Cash Position: $-18.83B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is CSX Corporation's free cash flow?
CSX Corporation generated $970.5M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $4.61B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does CSX Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, CSX Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.2%
- Payout Ratio: 33.8%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 46
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -17.8%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is CSX Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
CSX Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 2.57, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does CSX Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
CSX Corporation scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is CSX's return on equity (ROE)?
CSX Corporation's return on equity is 22.5%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy CSX stock?
CSX shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol CSX
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is CSX a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies CSX Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of CSX Corporation?
The current CEO of CSX Corporation is Mr. Stephen F. Angel.
What is CSX's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $1.54
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $2.09
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $1.86
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $2.09
Other Industrials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CSX analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings