FedEx Corporation (FDX) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Is FedEx Corporation a safe investment right now?
FedEx Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 2.87 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $287.00 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could FedEx Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.87 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives FDX's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.034 | 1.2 | 0.04 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.4725 | 1.4 | 0.66 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0711 | 3.3 | 0.23 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.5464 | 0.6 | 0.93 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.0034 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
How has FDX's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.83 | Gray |
| 2023 | 2.8 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.88 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.87 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from FDX's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is FedEx Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $16.40 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (3Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $16.81 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $19.69 | 28 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 20.6x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 17.5x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Declining | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $403.07 (28 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does FedEx Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up FDX's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is FDX's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12.5% | — |
| 2023 | 13.0% | Stable |
| 2024 | 13.8% | Stable |
| 2025 | 12.8% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is FedEx Corporation's dividend safe?
Can FedEx Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 30.6%. FCF covers the dividend 3.9x. 25 consecutive years of payments.
FedEx Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $87.9B | $87.7B | $93.5B | Declining |
| Net Income | $4.1B | $4.3B | $3.8B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.0B | $3.1B | $3.1B | Stable |
| Gross Margin | 21.6% | 21.6% | 21.6% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our FDX analysis
FDX earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $5.88. Revenue estimate: $23.84B. Our current Fair Value: $287.00 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
FDX analyst consensus: 66% bullish (19 of 29 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 17 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $403.07 (4.4% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $287.00.
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX beat EPS estimates by 25.5%
Reported EPS: $5.25 vs estimate $4.18. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $287.00 (25.6% below current price).
FDX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX paid $1.4500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 30.6%.
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX beat EPS estimates by 17.2%
Reported EPS: $4.82 vs estimate $4.11. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $287.00 (25.6% below current price).
FDX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX paid $1.4500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 30.6%.
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX beat EPS estimates by 6.0%
Reported EPS: $3.83 vs estimate $3.61. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $287.00 (25.6% below current price).
FDX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX paid $1.4500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 30.6%.
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX beat EPS estimates by 4.6%
Reported EPS: $6.07 vs estimate $5.80. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $287.00 (25.6% below current price).
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX paid $1.4500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 30.6%.
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX missed EPS estimates by 2.6%
Reported EPS: $4.51 vs estimate $4.63. Our Fair Value of $287.00 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
FDX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX paid $1.3800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 30.6%.
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FDX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about FedEx Corporation
What is FedEx Corporation stock price today?
FedEx Corporation (FDX) stock price is $385.95 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does FedEx Corporation do?
FedEx Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. It operates through Federal Express and FedEx Freight segments. It offers transportation services, including express, freight, less-than-truckload freight, and time-specific freight-shipping; and small-package ground delivery services.
What is FedEx Corporation market cap?
FedEx Corporation has a market capitalization of $92.09B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is FDX in?
FedEx Corporation operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol FDX.
Is FDX stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, FedEx Corporation trades 34.5% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $287.00
- Current Price: $385.95
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is FDX stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 28 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for FedEx Corporation is $403.07, implying upside of 4.4% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $479.00
- Analyst Low Target: $230.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is FedEx Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for FedEx Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 6.3%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 8.2%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 4.8%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 13.6%
What are FedEx Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $87.9B | Declining |
| Net Income | $4.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.0B | Stable |
| Gross Margin | 21.6% | Stable |
What is FDX's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 20.6x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 17.3x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 17.5x
How volatile is FDX stock?
FedEx Corporation has a beta of 1.29, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does FedEx Corporation have?
FedEx Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $8.22B
- Total Debt: $42.02B
- Net Cash Position: $-33.80B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is FedEx Corporation's free cash flow?
FedEx Corporation generated $894.0M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $8.18B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does FedEx Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, FedEx Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.5%
- Payout Ratio: 30.6%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 25
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -12.9%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is FedEx Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
FedEx Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 2.87, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does FedEx Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
FedEx Corporation scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is FDX's return on equity (ROE)?
FedEx Corporation's return on equity is 15.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy FDX stock?
FDX shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol FDX
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is FDX a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies FedEx Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of FedEx Corporation?
The current CEO of FedEx Corporation is Mr. Rajesh Subramaniam.
What is FDX's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $18.72
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $22.35
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $19.69
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $22.37
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
FDX analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings