Deere & Company (DE) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Is Deere & Company a safe investment right now?
Deere & Company's Altman Z-Score of 3.16 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $447.86 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could Deere & Company go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.16 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives DE's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.4005 | 1.2 | 0.48 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.563 | 1.4 | 0.79 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0889 | 3.3 | 0.29 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.9585 | 0.6 | 1.18 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4214 | 1.0 | 0.42 |
How has DE's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.4 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.34 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.17 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.16 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from DE's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Deere & Company actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $16.11 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $18.50 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $17.89 | 23 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 32.7x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 27.8x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Declining | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $665.10 (23 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Deere & Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up DE's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is DE's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 14.1% | — |
| 2023 | 18.2% | Rising |
| 2024 | 14.3% | Declining |
| 2025 | 10.5% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Deere & Company's dividend safe?
Can Deere & Company afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 36.5%. FCF covers the dividend 0.7x. 55 consecutive years of payments.
Deere & Company's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $44.7B | $50.5B | $51.3B | Declining |
| Net Income | $5.0B | $7.1B | $7.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.2B | $4.4B | $0.9B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 36.5% | 38.6% | 30.7% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our DE analysis
DE earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $5.71. Revenue estimate: $11.50B. Our current Fair Value: $447.86 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
DE analyst consensus: 54% bullish (13 of 24 analysts)
5 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 11 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $665.10 (14.7% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $447.86.
DE paid $1.6200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 36.5%.
DE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE beat EPS estimates by 15.4%
Reported EPS: $2.42 vs estimate $2.10. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $447.86 (22.8% below current price).
DE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE paid $1.6200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 36.5%.
DE filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE beat EPS estimates by 2.5%
Reported EPS: $3.93 vs estimate $3.83. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $447.86 (22.8% below current price).
DE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE paid $1.6200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 36.5%.
DE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE beat EPS estimates by 1.9%
Reported EPS: $4.75 vs estimate $4.66. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $447.86 (22.8% below current price).
DE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE paid $1.6200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 36.5%.
DE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE beat EPS estimates by 17.8%
Reported EPS: $6.64 vs estimate $5.64. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $447.86 (22.8% below current price).
DE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE paid $1.6200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 36.5%.
DE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE missed EPS estimates by 1.8%
Reported EPS: $3.19 vs estimate $3.25. Our Fair Value of $447.86 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
DE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Deere & Company
What is Deere & Company stock price today?
Deere & Company (DE) stock price is $579.99 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Deere & Company do?
Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. It operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides four-wheel-drive track and row crop tractors, harvesters, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters and loaders, soil preparation, tillage, seeding, and crop care equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, soil preparation machinery, and related attachments and service parts.
What is Deere & Company market cap?
Deere & Company has a market capitalization of $156.66B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is DE in?
Deere & Company operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol DE.
Is DE stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Deere & Company trades 29.5% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $447.86
- Current Price: $579.99
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is DE stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 23 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Deere & Company is $665.10, implying upside of 14.7% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $793.00
- Analyst Low Target: $500.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Deere & Company revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Deere & Company:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 5.5%
- EPS growth (current year est.): -3.3%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 9.6%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 28.8%
What are Deere & Company's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $44.7B | Declining |
| Net Income | $5.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 36.5% | Rising |
What is DE's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 32.7x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 25.2x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 27.8x
How volatile is DE stock?
Deere & Company has a beta of 0.99, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Deere & Company have?
Deere & Company's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $8.83B
- Total Debt: $48.47B
- Net Cash Position: $-39.64B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Deere & Company's free cash flow?
Deere & Company generated $4.20B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $7.70B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Deere & Company pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Deere & Company pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.1%
- Payout Ratio: 36.5%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 55
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -16.1%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Deere & Company at risk of going bankrupt?
Deere & Company's Altman Z-Score is 3.16, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Deere & Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Deere & Company scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is DE's return on equity (ROE)?
Deere & Company's return on equity is 19.6%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy DE stock?
DE shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol DE
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is DE a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Deere & Company as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Deere & Company?
The current CEO of Deere & Company is Mr. John C. May II.
What is DE's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $17.75
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $23.02
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $17.89
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $23.04
Other Industrials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
DE analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings