Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 8.8 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $127.20 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 8.8 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives EXPD's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.3439 | 1.2 | 0.41 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.5187 | 1.4 | 0.73 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.2151 | 3.3 | 0.71 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 7.8158 | 0.6 | 4.69 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 2.2619 | 1.0 | 2.26 |
How has EXPD's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10.29 | Safe |
| 2023 | 9.58 | Safe |
| 2024 | 8.78 | Safe |
| 2025 | 8.8 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from EXPD's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $6.00 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $5.95 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $6.06 | 14 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 24.9x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 21.2x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $139.50 (14 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up EXPD's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is EXPD's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 53.4% | — |
| 2023 | 39.3% | Declining |
| 2024 | 46.8% | Rising |
| 2025 | 44.7% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 25.9%. FCF covers the dividend 9.6x. 33 consecutive years of payments.
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.1B | $10.6B | $17.1B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.8B | $0.8B | $1.4B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.0B | $0.7B | $2.0B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 12.9% | 12.7% | 12.7% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our EXPD analysis
EXPD earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.33. Revenue estimate: $2.62B. Our current Fair Value: $127.20 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
EXPD analyst consensus: 12% bullish (2 of 16 analysts)
0 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 8 Hold, 3 Sell, 3 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $139.50 (6.0% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $127.20.
EXPD beat EPS estimates by 2.4%
Reported EPS: $1.49 vs estimate $1.46. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $127.20 (14.3% below current price).
EXPD paid $0.7700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 25.9%.
EXPD beat EPS estimates by 17.6%
Reported EPS: $1.64 vs estimate $1.39. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $127.20 (14.3% below current price).
EXPD beat EPS estimates by 7.4%
Reported EPS: $1.34 vs estimate $1.25. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $127.20 (14.3% below current price).
EXPD paid $0.7700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 25.9%.
EXPD beat EPS estimates by 7.5%
Reported EPS: $1.47 vs estimate $1.37. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $127.20 (14.3% below current price).
EXPD beat EPS estimates by 17.1%
Reported EPS: $1.68 vs estimate $1.43. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $127.20 (14.3% below current price).
Common questions about Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
What is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. stock price today?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) stock price is $148.44 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. do?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in the Americas, North Asia, South Asia, Europe, and Middle East, Africa, and India. It offers airfreight services, such as air freight consolidation and forwarding; ocean freight and ocean services, including ocean freight consolidation, direct ocean forwarding, and order management; customs brokerage and other services, import, intra-continental ground transportation and delivery, and warehousing and distribution services; and customs clearance, purchase order management, vendor consolidation, time-definite transportation services, temperature-controlled transit, cargo insurance, specialized cargo monitoring and tracking, and other logistics solutions. It also provides optimization, trade compliance consulting, cargo insurance, cargo security, and solutions.
What is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. market cap?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. has a market capitalization of $19.82B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is EXPD in?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol EXPD.
Is EXPD stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. trades 16.7% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $127.20
- Current Price: $148.44
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is EXPD stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 14 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is $139.50, implying downside of 6.0% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $166.00
- Analyst Low Target: $95.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 1.0%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 1.9%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 3.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 7.5%
What are Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.1B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.8B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.0B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 12.9% | Stable |
What is EXPD's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 24.9x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 23.0x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 21.2x
How volatile is EXPD stock?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. has a beta of 1.08, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. have?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.31B
- Total Debt: $570.6M
- Net Cash Position: $743.7M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. generated $803.0M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.01B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.0%
- Payout Ratio: 25.9%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 33
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: 8.2%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 8.80, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is EXPD's return on equity (ROE)?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s return on equity is 35.4%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy EXPD stock?
EXPD shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol EXPD
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is EXPD a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.?
The current CEO of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is Mr. Daniel R. Wall.
What is EXPD's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $5.95
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $6.47
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $6.06
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $6.52
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
EXPD analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings