Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Is Rocket Lab Corporation a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) stock is $112.76, versus a market price of $80.25 — Watch — Analyst Anchor. Analyst Consensus (17 analysts) — EPS model not applicable at negative earnings.
Rocket Lab Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 50.99 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $112.76 (Watch — Analyst Anchor). Moat rating: 2.9/5 stars.
Could Rocket Lab Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 50.99 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives RKLB's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.4436 | 1.2 | 0.53 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.4353 | 1.4 | -0.61 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.0858 | 3.3 | -0.28 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 85.1488 | 0.6 | 51.09 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.2589 | 1.0 | 0.26 |
How has RKLB's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 97.23 | Safe |
| 2023 | 78.71 | Safe |
| 2024 | 37.7 | Safe |
| 2025 | 50.99 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from RKLB's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
Rocket Lab Corporation Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $0.00 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Trailing P/E | 0.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 0.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | N/A | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $112.76 (17 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Rocket Lab Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.9/5.
What makes up RKLB's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is RKLB's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -16.1% | — |
| 2023 | -24.5% | Declining |
| 2024 | -20.8% | Rising |
| 2025 | -10.6% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Rocket Lab Corporation's dividend safe?
Rocket Lab Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.6B | $0.4B | $0.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$0.2B | −$0.2B | −$0.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.3B | −$0.1B | −$0.1B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 34.4% | 26.6% | 9.0% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our RKLB analysis
RKLB earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $-0.02. Revenue estimate: $253.2M. Our current Fair Value: $112.76 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
RKLB analyst consensus: 78% bullish (14 of 18 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $112.76 (40.5% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $112.76.
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB missed EPS estimates by 4.3%
Reported EPS: $-0.08 vs estimate $-0.08. Our Fair Value of $112.76 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
RKLB filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB beat EPS estimates by 58.2%
Reported EPS: $-0.02 vs estimate $-0.04. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $112.76 (40.5% above current price).
RKLB filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB beat EPS estimates by 10.0%
Reported EPS: $-0.05 vs estimate $-0.05. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $112.76 (40.5% above current price).
RKLB filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB beat EPS estimates by 66.8%
Reported EPS: $-0.02 vs estimate $-0.06. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $112.76 (40.5% above current price).
RKLB filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB missed EPS estimates by 2.2%
Reported EPS: $-0.08 vs estimate $-0.08. Our Fair Value of $112.76 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
RKLB filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB beat EPS estimates by 0.5%
Reported EPS: $-0.12 vs estimate $-0.12. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $112.76 (40.5% above current price).
RKLB filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB beat EPS estimates by 18.2%
Reported EPS: $-0.06 vs estimate $-0.07. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $112.76 (40.5% above current price).
RKLB filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
RKLB filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Rocket Lab Corporation
What is Rocket Lab Corporation stock price today?
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) stock price is $80.25 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Rocket Lab Corporation do?
Rocket Lab Corporation, a space company, provides launch services and space systems solutions in the United States, Canada, Japan, and internationally. It operates through launch services and space systems segments. It provides launch services, spacecraft design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft manufacturing, optical systems, and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions and constellation management services, as well as designs and manufactures small and medium-class rockets and develops flight and ground software.
What is Rocket Lab Corporation market cap?
Rocket Lab Corporation has a market capitalization of $51.31B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is RKLB in?
Rocket Lab Corporation operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Aerospace & Defense industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol RKLB.
Is RKLB stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Rocket Lab Corporation trades 28.8% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $112.76
- Current Price: $80.25
- Valuation Zone: Watch — Analyst Anchor
What is RKLB stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 17 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Rocket Lab Corporation is $112.76, implying upside of 40.5% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $150.00
- Analyst Low Target: $64.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Rocket Lab Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Rocket Lab Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 57.3%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 23.2%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 41.8%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 77.3%
What are Rocket Lab Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$0.2B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.3B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 34.4% | Rising |
What is RKLB's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 1605.0x
How volatile is RKLB stock?
Rocket Lab Corporation has a beta of 2.63, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Rocket Lab Corporation have?
Rocket Lab Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.30B
- Total Debt: $133.7M
- Net Cash Position: $2.17B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Rocket Lab Corporation's free cash flow?
Rocket Lab Corporation generated $-252.0M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $-222.5M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Rocket Lab Corporation pay a dividend?
Rocket Lab Corporation does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Rocket Lab Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Rocket Lab Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 50.99, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Rocket Lab Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Rocket Lab Corporation scores 2.9/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is RKLB's return on equity (ROE)?
Rocket Lab Corporation's return on equity is -7.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy RKLB stock?
RKLB shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol RKLB
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is RKLB a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Rocket Lab Corporation as Pure Speculation. It lacks the financial stability or valuation margin typically required for value investing. This stock is considered high risk.
What is RKLB's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $-0.27
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $0.05
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $-0.28
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $-0.06
Other Industrials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
RKLB analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings