Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Railroads
Is Union Pacific Corporation a safe investment right now?
Union Pacific Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 3.97 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $215.41 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Union Pacific Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.97 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives UNP's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0066 | 1.2 | -0.01 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.9976 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1503 | 3.3 | 0.5 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.8901 | 0.6 | 1.73 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3517 | 1.0 | 0.35 |
How has UNP's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.8 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.8 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.93 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.97 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from UNP's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Union Pacific Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $12.17 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $11.98 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $12.45 | 24 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 20.8x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 17.7x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $273.33 (24 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Union Pacific Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up UNP's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is UNP's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22.7% | — |
| 2023 | 20.2% | Declining |
| 2024 | 20.9% | Stable |
| 2025 | 20.8% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Union Pacific Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Union Pacific Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 45.4%. FCF covers the dividend 1.8x. 47 consecutive years of payments.
Union Pacific Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.5B | $24.2B | $24.9B | Stable |
| Net Income | $7.1B | $6.7B | $7.0B | Stable |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.5B | $5.9B | $5.7B | Stable |
| Gross Margin | 45.8% | 45.5% | 45.1% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our UNP analysis
UNP earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.86. Revenue estimate: $6.21B. Our current Fair Value: $215.41 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
UNP analyst consensus: 68% bullish (17 of 25 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $273.33 (9.6% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $215.41.
UNP paid $1.3800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 45.4%.
UNP filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP missed EPS estimates by 0.3%
Reported EPS: $2.86 vs estimate $2.87. Our Fair Value of $215.41 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP paid $1.3800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 45.4%.
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP beat EPS estimates by 2.8%
Reported EPS: $3.08 vs estimate $3.00. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $215.41 (13.6% below current price).
UNP filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP paid $1.3800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 45.4%.
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP beat EPS estimates by 4.2%
Reported EPS: $3.03 vs estimate $2.91. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $215.41 (13.6% below current price).
UNP filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP paid $1.3400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 45.4%.
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP missed EPS estimates by 1.1%
Reported EPS: $2.70 vs estimate $2.73. Our Fair Value of $215.41 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
UNP filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP paid $1.3400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 45.4%.
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
UNP beat EPS estimates by 6.8%
Reported EPS: $2.98 vs estimate $2.79. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $215.41 (13.6% below current price).
UNP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Union Pacific Corporation
What is Union Pacific Corporation stock price today?
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) stock price is $249.40 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Union Pacific Corporation do?
Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States. It offers transportation services for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated products, and coal and renewables to grain processors, animal feeders, and ethanol and renewable biofuel producers; and construction products, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products, metals and ores, petroleum, liquid petroleum gases, soda ash, and sand, as well as finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers. It was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.
What is Union Pacific Corporation market cap?
Union Pacific Corporation has a market capitalization of $148.06B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is UNP in?
Union Pacific Corporation operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Railroads industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol UNP.
Is UNP stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Union Pacific Corporation trades 15.8% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $215.41
- Current Price: $249.40
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is UNP stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 24 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Union Pacific Corporation is $273.33, implying upside of 9.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $311.00
- Analyst Low Target: $218.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Union Pacific Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Union Pacific Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 5.0%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 6.8%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 4.6%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 9.2%
What are Union Pacific Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.5B | Stable |
| Net Income | $7.1B | Stable |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.5B | Stable |
| Gross Margin | 45.8% | Stable |
What is UNP's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 20.8x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 18.4x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 17.7x
How volatile is UNP stock?
Union Pacific Corporation has a beta of 0.97, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Union Pacific Corporation have?
Union Pacific Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.52B
- Total Debt: $32.82B
- Net Cash Position: $-31.31B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Union Pacific Corporation's free cash flow?
Union Pacific Corporation generated $3.92B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $9.29B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Union Pacific Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Union Pacific Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.2%
- Payout Ratio: 45.4%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 47
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -20.3%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Union Pacific Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Union Pacific Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 3.97, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Union Pacific Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Union Pacific Corporation scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is UNP's return on equity (ROE)?
Union Pacific Corporation's return on equity is 40.4%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy UNP stock?
UNP shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol UNP
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is UNP a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Union Pacific Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Union Pacific Corporation?
The current CEO of Union Pacific Corporation is Mr. Vincenzo James Vena.
What is UNP's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $11.97
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $13.58
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $12.45
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $13.59
Other Industrials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
UNP analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings