Fastenal Company (FAST) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Is Fastenal Company a safe investment right now?
Fastenal Company's Altman Z-Score of 32.27 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $39.09 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Fastenal Company go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 32.27 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives FAST's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.5455 | 1.2 | 0.65 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.7654 | 1.4 | 1.07 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.3288 | 3.3 | 1.09 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 46.3866 | 0.6 | 27.83 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.6229 | 1.0 | 1.62 |
How has FAST's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 26.48 | Safe |
| 2023 | 32.18 | Safe |
| 2024 | 32.93 | Safe |
| 2025 | 32.27 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from FAST's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Fastenal Company actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $1.16 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $1.09 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $1.23 | 12 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 39.6x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 33.7x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $46.49 (12 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Fastenal Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up FAST's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is FAST's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 39.1% | — |
| 2023 | 42.5% | Rising |
| 2024 | 39.7% | Declining |
| 2025 | 40.8% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Fastenal Company's dividend safe?
Can Fastenal Company afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 79.7%. FCF covers the dividend 1.1x. 36 consecutive years of payments.
Fastenal Company's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.2B | $7.5B | $7.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | $0.9B | $0.8B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 45.0% | 45.1% | 46.1% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our FAST analysis
FAST earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.32. Revenue estimate: $2.32B. Our current Fair Value: $39.09 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
FAST analyst consensus: 29% bullish (5 of 17 analysts)
0 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 7 Hold, 2 Sell, 3 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $46.49 (3.7% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $39.09.
FAST filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST beat EPS estimates by 0.8%
Reported EPS: $0.30 vs estimate $0.30. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $39.09 (12.8% below current price).
FAST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST paid $0.2400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 79.7%.
FAST beat EPS estimates by 0.5%
Reported EPS: $0.26 vs estimate $0.26. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $39.09 (12.8% below current price).
FAST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST paid $0.2200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 79.7%.
FAST filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST missed EPS estimates by 2.2%
Reported EPS: $0.29 vs estimate $0.30. Our Fair Value of $39.09 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
FAST paid $0.2200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 79.7%.
FAST filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST beat EPS estimates by 8.3%
Reported EPS: $0.29 vs estimate $0.27. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $39.09 (12.8% below current price).
FAST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST stock split 2:1
Stock splits don't change fundamental value, but they can affect per-share metrics. Our models automatically adjust for splits.
FAST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST paid $0.2200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 79.7%.
FAST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST beat EPS estimates by 0.1%
Reported EPS: $0.26 vs estimate $0.26. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $39.09 (12.8% below current price).
FAST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST paid $0.2150/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 79.7%.
FAST missed EPS estimates by 3.8%
Reported EPS: $0.23 vs estimate $0.24. Our Fair Value of $39.09 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
FAST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FAST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Fastenal Company
What is Fastenal Company stock price today?
Fastenal Company (FAST) stock price is $44.81 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Fastenal Company do?
Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name. The company's fastener products include threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers that are used in manufactured products and construction projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines.
What is Fastenal Company market cap?
Fastenal Company has a market capitalization of $51.46B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is FAST in?
Fastenal Company operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Industrial Distribution industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol FAST.
Is FAST stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Fastenal Company trades 14.6% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $39.09
- Current Price: $44.81
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is FAST stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 12 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Fastenal Company is $46.49, implying upside of 3.7% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $55.00
- Analyst Low Target: $39.90
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Fastenal Company revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Fastenal Company:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 10.8%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 13.2%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 8.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 10.5%
What are Fastenal Company's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.3B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 45.0% | Stable |
What is FAST's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 39.6x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 32.8x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 33.7x
How volatile is FAST stock?
Fastenal Company has a beta of 0.84, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Fastenal Company have?
Fastenal Company's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $308.6M
- Total Debt: $445.5M
- Net Cash Position: $-136.9M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Fastenal Company's free cash flow?
Fastenal Company generated $904.5M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.41B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Fastenal Company pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Fastenal Company pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.0%
- Payout Ratio: 79.7%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 36
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -15.6%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Fastenal Company at risk of going bankrupt?
Fastenal Company's Altman Z-Score is 32.27, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Fastenal Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Fastenal Company scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is FAST's return on equity (ROE)?
Fastenal Company's return on equity is 33.8%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy FAST stock?
FAST shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol FAST
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is FAST a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Fastenal Company as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Fastenal Company?
The current CEO of Fastenal Company is Mr. Daniel L. Florness.
What is FAST's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $1.13
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $1.36
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $1.23
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $1.36
Other Industrials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
FAST analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings