Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Waste Management
Is Waste Connections, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Waste Connections, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.88 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $149.76 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.3/5 stars.
Could Waste Connections, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.88 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives WCN's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0385 | 1.2 | -0.05 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2461 | 1.4 | 0.34 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0829 | 3.3 | 0.27 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 3.1053 | 0.6 | 1.86 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.448 | 1.0 | 0.45 |
How has WCN's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.33 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.32 | Safe |
| 2024 | 2.91 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.88 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from WCN's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Waste Connections, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $4.68 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $4.17 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $5.46 | 25 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 37.6x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 32.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $198.88 (25 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Waste Connections, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.3/5.
What makes up WCN's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is WCN's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 8.9% | — |
| 2023 | 8.7% | Stable |
| 2024 | 6.8% | Declining |
| 2025 | 10.3% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Waste Connections, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Waste Connections, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 31.1%. FCF covers the dividend 4.6x. 17 consecutive years of payments.
Waste Connections, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.5B | $8.9B | $7.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.1B | $0.6B | $0.8B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 42.4% | 41.8% | 39.9% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our WCN analysis
WCN analyst consensus: 86% bullish (24 of 28 analysts)
6 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $198.88 (27.1% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $149.76.
WCN beat EPS estimates by 3.8%
Reported EPS: $1.23 vs estimate $1.18. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $149.76 (4.3% below current price).
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 31.1%.
WCN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN beat EPS estimates by 1.5%
Reported EPS: $1.29 vs estimate $1.27. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $149.76 (4.3% below current price).
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN beat EPS estimates by 4.5%
Reported EPS: $1.44 vs estimate $1.38. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $149.76 (4.3% below current price).
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN paid $0.3150/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 31.1%.
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN beat EPS estimates by 1.2%
Reported EPS: $1.12 vs estimate $1.11. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $149.76 (4.3% below current price).
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN paid $0.3150/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 31.1%.
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN beat EPS estimates by 4.9%
Reported EPS: $1.13 vs estimate $1.08. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $149.76 (4.3% below current price).
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN paid $0.3150/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 31.1%.
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
WCN missed EPS estimates by 2.0%
Reported EPS: $1.16 vs estimate $1.18. Our Fair Value of $149.76 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
WCN filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Waste Connections, Inc.
What is Waste Connections, Inc. stock price today?
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) stock price is $156.51 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Waste Connections, Inc. do?
Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, and disposal services in the United States and Canada. It offers collection services to residential, commercial, municipal, industrial, and exploration and production (E&P) customers; landfill disposal services; and recycling services for various recyclable materials, including compost, cardboard, mixed paper, plastic containers, glass bottles, and ferrous and aluminum metals.
What is Waste Connections, Inc. market cap?
Waste Connections, Inc. has a market capitalization of $40.01B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is WCN in?
Waste Connections, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Waste Management industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol WCN.
Is WCN stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Waste Connections, Inc. trades 4.5% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $149.76
- Current Price: $156.51
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is WCN stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 25 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Waste Connections, Inc. is $198.88, implying upside of 27.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $225.00
- Analyst Low Target: $156.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Waste Connections, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Waste Connections, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 5.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 5.9%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 6.1%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 13.1%
What are Waste Connections, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 42.4% | Rising |
What is WCN's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 37.6x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 25.4x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 32.0x
How volatile is WCN stock?
Waste Connections, Inc. has a beta of 0.61, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Waste Connections, Inc. have?
Waste Connections, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $46.0M
- Total Debt: $9.15B
- Net Cash Position: $-9.10B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Waste Connections, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Waste Connections, Inc. generated $1.17B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.41B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Waste Connections, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Waste Connections, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.8%
- Payout Ratio: 31.1%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 17
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -16.2%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Waste Connections, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Waste Connections, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 2.88, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Waste Connections, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Waste Connections, Inc. scores 3.3/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is WCN's return on equity (ROE)?
Waste Connections, Inc.'s return on equity is 13.4%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy WCN stock?
WCN shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol WCN
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is WCN a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Waste Connections, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Waste Connections, Inc.?
The current CEO of Waste Connections, Inc. is Mr. Ronald J. Mittelstaedt.
What is WCN's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $4.16
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $6.17
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $5.46
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $6.17
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
WCN analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings