Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Railroads
Is Norfolk Southern Corporation a safe investment right now?
Norfolk Southern Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 2.34 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $247.56 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Norfolk Southern Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.34 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives NSC's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0128 | 1.2 | -0.02 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2926 | 1.4 | 0.41 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0985 | 3.3 | 0.33 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.2566 | 0.6 | 1.35 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.2693 | 1.0 | 0.27 |
How has NSC's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.64 | Gray |
| 2023 | 2.3 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.34 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.34 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from NSC's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Norfolk Southern Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $12.44 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $12.75 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $11.98 | 19 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 23.4x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 19.9x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $311.21 (19 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Norfolk Southern Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up NSC's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is NSC's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17.3% | — |
| 2023 | 10.2% | Declining |
| 2024 | 13.1% | Rising |
| 2025 | 13.7% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Norfolk Southern Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Norfolk Southern Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 42.4%. FCF covers the dividend 1.9x. 45 consecutive years of payments.
Norfolk Southern Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.2B | $12.1B | $12.7B | Stable |
| Net Income | $2.9B | $2.6B | $3.3B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.2B | $1.7B | $2.3B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 36.4% | 37.5% | 41.1% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our NSC analysis
NSC earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.50. Revenue estimate: $3.00B. Our current Fair Value: $247.56 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
NSC analyst consensus: 23% bullish (5 of 22 analysts)
1 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 17 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $311.21 (4.3% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $247.56.
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC paid $1.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 42.4%.
NSC beat EPS estimates by 16.5%
Reported EPS: $3.22 vs estimate $2.76. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $247.56 (17.0% below current price).
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC paid $1.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 42.4%.
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC beat EPS estimates by 3.0%
Reported EPS: $3.30 vs estimate $3.20. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $247.56 (17.0% below current price).
NSC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC paid $1.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 42.4%.
NSC missed EPS estimates by 0.5%
Reported EPS: $3.29 vs estimate $3.31. Our Fair Value of $247.56 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC paid $1.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 42.4%.
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC beat EPS estimates by 0.5%
Reported EPS: $2.69 vs estimate $2.68. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $247.56 (17.0% below current price).
NSC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC paid $1.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 42.4%.
NSC beat EPS estimates by 3.3%
Reported EPS: $3.04 vs estimate $2.94. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $247.56 (17.0% below current price).
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NSC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Norfolk Southern Corporation
What is Norfolk Southern Corporation stock price today?
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) stock price is $298.33 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Norfolk Southern Corporation do?
Norfolk Southern Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods in the United States. It transports agriculture, forest, and consumer products comprising soybeans, wheat, corn, fertilizers, livestock and poultry feed, food products, food oils, flour, sweeteners, ethanol, lumber and wood products, pulp board and paper products, wood fibers, wood pulp, beverages, and canned goods; chemicals, including sulfur and related chemicals, petroleum products comprising crude oil, chlorine and bleaching compounds, plastics, rubber, industrial chemicals, chemical wastes, sand, and natural gas liquids; metals and construction materials, such as steel, aluminum products, machinery, scrap metals, cement, aggregates, minerals, clay, transportation equipment, and military-related products; and automotive, including finished motor vehicles and automotive parts, as well as coal. It also transports overseas freight through various Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports; and operates an intermodal network.
What is Norfolk Southern Corporation market cap?
Norfolk Southern Corporation has a market capitalization of $67.00B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is NSC in?
Norfolk Southern Corporation operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Railroads industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol NSC.
Is NSC stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Norfolk Southern Corporation trades 20.5% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $247.56
- Current Price: $298.33
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is NSC stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 19 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Norfolk Southern Corporation is $311.21, implying upside of 4.3% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $355.00
- Analyst Low Target: $290.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Norfolk Southern Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Norfolk Southern Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 3.4%
- EPS growth (current year est.): -4.0%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 4.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 11.7%
What are Norfolk Southern Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.2B | Stable |
| Net Income | $2.9B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.2B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 36.4% | Declining |
What is NSC's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 23.4x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 22.3x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 19.9x
How volatile is NSC stock?
Norfolk Southern Corporation has a beta of 1.31, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Norfolk Southern Corporation have?
Norfolk Southern Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.53B
- Total Debt: $17.84B
- Net Cash Position: $-16.31B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Norfolk Southern Corporation's free cash flow?
Norfolk Southern Corporation generated $1.45B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $4.36B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Norfolk Southern Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Norfolk Southern Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.8%
- Payout Ratio: 42.4%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 45
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -20.2%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Norfolk Southern Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Norfolk Southern Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 2.34, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Norfolk Southern Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Norfolk Southern Corporation scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is NSC's return on equity (ROE)?
Norfolk Southern Corporation's return on equity is 19.2%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy NSC stock?
NSC shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol NSC
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is NSC a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Norfolk Southern Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Norfolk Southern Corporation?
The current CEO of Norfolk Southern Corporation is Mr. Mark R. George.
What is NSC's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $12.74
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $13.40
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $11.98
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $13.39
Other Industrials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
NSC analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings