TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Is TransDigm Group Incorporated a safe investment right now?
TransDigm Group Incorporated's Altman Z-Score of 1.83 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $1061.75 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could TransDigm Group Incorporated go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.83 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives TDG's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.2108 | 1.2 | 0.25 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.463 | 1.4 | -0.65 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1834 | 3.3 | 0.61 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.0583 | 0.6 | 1.23 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3855 | 1.0 | 0.39 |
How has TDG's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.52 | Gray |
| 2023 | 2.77 | Gray |
| 2024 | 1.79 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.83 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from TDG's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is TransDigm Group Incorporated actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $32.77 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $32.08 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $39.03 | 21 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 38.2x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 32.4x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $1,537.14 (21 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does TransDigm Group Incorporated have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up TDG's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is TDG's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 13.8% | — |
| 2023 | 16.2% | Rising |
| 2024 | 18.8% | Rising |
| 2025 | 20.7% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is TransDigm Group Incorporated's dividend safe?
TransDigm Group Incorporated's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.8B | $7.9B | $5.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.1B | $1.7B | $0.9B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.8B | $1.9B | $0.8B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 60.1% | 58.8% | 57.1% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our TDG analysis
TDG earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $9.53. Revenue estimate: $2.48B. Our current Fair Value: $1061.75 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
TDG analyst consensus: 70% bullish (16 of 23 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $1537.14 (29.4% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $1061.75.
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG beat EPS estimates by 2.4%
Reported EPS: $8.23 vs estimate $8.04. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1061.75 (10.6% below current price).
TDG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG beat EPS estimates by 1.6%
Reported EPS: $7.75 vs estimate $7.63. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1061.75 (10.6% below current price).
TDG filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG paid $90.0000/share dividend
Dividend payment recorded.
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG missed EPS estimates by 3.0%
Reported EPS: $9.60 vs estimate $9.90. Our Fair Value of $1061.75 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
TDG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG beat EPS estimates by 1.8%
Reported EPS: $9.11 vs estimate $8.95. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1061.75 (10.6% below current price).
TDG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG beat EPS estimates by 1.1%
Reported EPS: $7.83 vs estimate $7.74. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1061.75 (10.6% below current price).
TDG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TDG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about TransDigm Group Incorporated
What is TransDigm Group Incorporated stock price today?
TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) stock price is $1187.75 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does TransDigm Group Incorporated do?
TransDigm Group Incorporated designs, produces, and supplies aircraft components in the United States and internationally. The Power & Control segment offers mechanical/electro-mechanical actuators and controls, ignition systems and engine technology, specialized pumps and valves, power conditioning devices, specialized AC/DC electric motors and generators, batteries and chargers, databus and power controls, sensor products, switches and relay panels, hoists, winches and lifting devices, cargo loading and handling systems, delivery systems, and electronic components. Its Airframe segment provides engineered latching and locking devices, engineered rods, engineered connectors and elastomer sealing solutions, cockpit security components and systems, cockpit displays, lavatory components, seat belts and safety restraints, engineered and customized interior surfaces and related components, thermal protection and insulation products, lighting and control technology, parachutes, specialized flight, wind tunnel and jet engine testing services and equipment, and testing and instrumentation solutions, as well as engineered audio, radio, and antenna systems.
What is TransDigm Group Incorporated market cap?
TransDigm Group Incorporated has a market capitalization of $67.08B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is TDG in?
TransDigm Group Incorporated operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Aerospace & Defense industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol TDG.
Is TDG stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, TransDigm Group Incorporated trades 11.9% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $1061.75
- Current Price: $1187.75
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is TDG stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 21 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for TransDigm Group Incorporated is $1537.14, implying upside of 29.4% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $1835.00
- Analyst Low Target: $1200.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is TransDigm Group Incorporated revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for TransDigm Group Incorporated:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 14.5%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 4.6%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 9.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 17.8%
What are TransDigm Group Incorporated's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.8B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 60.1% | Rising |
What is TDG's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 38.2x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 25.8x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 32.4x
How volatile is TDG stock?
TransDigm Group Incorporated has a beta of 0.95, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does TransDigm Group Incorporated have?
TransDigm Group Incorporated's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.53B
- Total Debt: $30.05B
- Net Cash Position: $-27.52B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is TransDigm Group Incorporated's free cash flow?
TransDigm Group Incorporated generated $1.33B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.12B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does TransDigm Group Incorporated pay a dividend?
TransDigm Group Incorporated does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is TransDigm Group Incorporated at risk of going bankrupt?
TransDigm Group Incorporated's Altman Z-Score is 1.83, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does TransDigm Group Incorporated have a durable competitive advantage?
TransDigm Group Incorporated scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
How do I buy TDG stock?
TDG shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol TDG
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is TDG a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies TransDigm Group Incorporated as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of TransDigm Group Incorporated?
The current CEO of TransDigm Group Incorporated is Mr. Michael J. Lisman.
What is TDG's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $31.12
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $45.96
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $39.03
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $45.96
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
TDG analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings