Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Airlines
Is Delta Air Lines, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 1.49 places it in the distress zone. Our fair value estimate is $39.70 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could Delta Air Lines, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.49 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives DAL's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.2048 | 1.2 | -0.25 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.1641 | 1.4 | 0.23 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0844 | 3.3 | 0.28 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.7433 | 0.6 | 0.45 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.7792 | 1.0 | 0.78 |
How has DAL's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.05 | Distress |
| 2023 | 1.35 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.4 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.49 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from DAL's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Delta Air Lines, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $4.67 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $7.66 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $5.53 | 25 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 10.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 8.5x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Declining | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $79.45 (25 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Delta Air Lines, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up DAL's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is DAL's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 9.9% | — |
| 2023 | 20.7% | Rising |
| 2024 | 17.2% | Declining |
| 2025 | 19.6% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Delta Air Lines, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 10.4%. FCF covers the dividend 0.0x. 12 consecutive years of payments.
Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $63.4B | $61.6B | $50.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $5.0B | $3.5B | $1.3B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.8B | $2.9B | −$0.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 24.2% | 24.6% | 20.9% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our DAL analysis
DAL earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.45. Revenue estimate: $18.65B. Our current Fair Value: $39.70 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
DAL analyst consensus: 96% bullish (25 of 26 analysts)
5 Strong Buy, 20 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $79.45 (16.1% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $39.70.
DAL beat EPS estimates by 11.3%
Reported EPS: $0.64 vs estimate $0.57. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $39.70 (42.0% below current price).
DAL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL paid $0.1880/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 10.4%.
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL beat EPS estimates by 0.3%
Reported EPS: $1.55 vs estimate $1.55. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $39.70 (42.0% below current price).
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL paid $0.1880/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 10.4%.
DAL beat EPS estimates by 11.9%
Reported EPS: $1.71 vs estimate $1.53. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $39.70 (42.0% below current price).
DAL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL paid $0.1880/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 10.4%.
DAL beat EPS estimates by 2.7%
Reported EPS: $2.10 vs estimate $2.04. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $39.70 (42.0% below current price).
DAL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL paid $0.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 10.4%.
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL beat EPS estimates by 19.1%
Reported EPS: $0.46 vs estimate $0.39. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $39.70 (42.0% below current price).
DAL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL paid $0.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 10.4%.
DAL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DAL beat EPS estimates by 6.2%
Reported EPS: $1.85 vs estimate $1.74. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $39.70 (42.0% below current price).
DAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Delta Air Lines, Inc.
What is Delta Air Lines, Inc. stock price today?
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) stock price is $68.41 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Delta Air Lines, Inc. do?
Delta Air Lines, Inc. provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Airline and Refinery.
What is Delta Air Lines, Inc. market cap?
Delta Air Lines, Inc. has a market capitalization of $44.94B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is DAL in?
Delta Air Lines, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Airlines industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol DAL.
Is DAL stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Delta Air Lines, Inc. trades 72.3% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $39.70
- Current Price: $68.41
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is DAL stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 25 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Delta Air Lines, Inc. is $79.45, implying upside of 16.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $90.00
- Analyst Low Target: $48.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Delta Air Lines, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Delta Air Lines, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 10.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): -5.0%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 3.0%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 69.6%
What are Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $63.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $5.0B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.8B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 24.2% | Rising |
What is DAL's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 10.0x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 8.6x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 8.5x
How volatile is DAL stock?
Delta Air Lines, Inc. has a beta of 1.31, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Delta Air Lines, Inc. have?
Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $5.05B
- Total Debt: $21.40B
- Net Cash Position: $-16.35B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Delta Air Lines, Inc. generated $3.09B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $8.40B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Delta Air Lines, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Delta Air Lines, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.8%
- Payout Ratio: 10.4%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 12
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -34.0%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Delta Air Lines, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 1.49, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Delta Air Lines, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Delta Air Lines, Inc. scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is DAL's return on equity (ROE)?
Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s return on equity is 25.0%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy DAL stock?
DAL shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol DAL
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is DAL a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Delta Air Lines, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Delta Air Lines, Inc.?
The current CEO of Delta Air Lines, Inc. is Mr. Edward H. Bastian.
What is DAL's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $6.85
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $7.97
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $5.53
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $7.99
Other Industrials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
DAL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings