Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Is Axon Enterprise, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 6.21 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $160.80 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 2.6/5 stars.
Could Axon Enterprise, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 6.21 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives AXON's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.3204 | 1.2 | 0.38 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.1338 | 1.4 | 0.19 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0162 | 3.3 | 0.05 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 8.6444 | 0.6 | 5.19 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3971 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
How has AXON's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 13.46 | Safe |
| 2023 | 12.24 | Safe |
| 2024 | 10.25 | Safe |
| 2025 | 6.21 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from AXON's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Axon Enterprise, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $4.02 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $1.51 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $7.79 | 18 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 270.6x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $707.96 (18 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Axon Enterprise, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.6/5.
What makes up AXON's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is AXON's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.8% | — |
| 2023 | 7.2% | Rising |
| 2024 | 12.9% | Rising |
| 2025 | 2.2% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.8B | $2.1B | $1.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.1B | $0.4B | $0.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.1B | $0.3B | $0.2B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 59.7% | 59.6% | 61.2% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our AXON analysis
AXON earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.60. Revenue estimate: $779.6M. Our current Fair Value: $160.80 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
AXON analyst consensus: 90% bullish (18 of 20 analysts)
8 Strong Buy, 10 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $707.96 (75.6% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $160.80.
AXON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON beat EPS estimates by 34.5%
Reported EPS: $2.15 vs estimate $1.60. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $160.80 (60.1% below current price).
AXON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON missed EPS estimates by 24.1%
Reported EPS: $1.17 vs estimate $1.54. Our Fair Value of $160.80 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AXON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON beat EPS estimates by 45.0%
Reported EPS: $2.12 vs estimate $1.46. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $160.80 (60.1% below current price).
AXON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON beat EPS estimates by 10.2%
Reported EPS: $1.41 vs estimate $1.28. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $160.80 (60.1% below current price).
AXON filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXON beat EPS estimates by 48.2%
Reported EPS: $2.08 vs estimate $1.40. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $160.80 (60.1% below current price).
AXON filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Axon Enterprise, Inc.
What is Axon Enterprise, Inc. stock price today?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) stock price is $403.15 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Axon Enterprise, Inc. do?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. provides public safety technology solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Software and Services, and Connected Devices.
What is Axon Enterprise, Inc. market cap?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. has a market capitalization of $32.48B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is AXON in?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Aerospace & Defense industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol AXON.
Is AXON stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Axon Enterprise, Inc. trades 150.7% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $160.80
- Current Price: $403.15
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is AXON stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 18 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Axon Enterprise, Inc. is $707.96, implying upside of 75.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $825.00
- Analyst Low Target: $521.24
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Axon Enterprise, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Axon Enterprise, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 29.2%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 13.7%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 29.1%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 35.8%
What are Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.1B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 59.7% | Stable |
What is AXON's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 270.6x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 38.1x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is AXON stock?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. has a beta of 1.60, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Axon Enterprise, Inc. have?
Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.73B
- Total Debt: $1.92B
- Net Cash Position: $-182.9M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. generated $230.0M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $211.3M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Axon Enterprise, Inc. pay a dividend?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Axon Enterprise, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 6.21, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Axon Enterprise, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. scores 2.6/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is AXON's return on equity (ROE)?
Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s return on equity is 4.5%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy AXON stock?
AXON shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol AXON
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is AXON a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Axon Enterprise, Inc. as Pure Speculation. It lacks the financial stability or valuation margin typically required for value investing. This stock is considered high risk.
Who is the CEO of Axon Enterprise, Inc.?
The current CEO of Axon Enterprise, Inc. is Mr. Patrick W. Smith.
What is AXON's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $1.49
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $10.57
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $7.79
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $10.57
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
AXON analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings