Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Tools & Accessories
Is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.02 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $89.42 (Strong Buy Zone). Moat rating: 2.9/5 stars.
Could Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.02 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives SWK's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0345 | 1.2 | 0.04 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3881 | 1.4 | 0.54 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.044 | 3.3 | 0.15 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.9644 | 0.6 | 0.58 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.7122 | 1.0 | 0.71 |
How has SWK's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.78 | Distress |
| 2023 | 1.74 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.97 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.02 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from SWK's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $3.68 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.65 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $5.24 | 14 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 28.6x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 24.3x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $89.44 (14 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.9/5.
What makes up SWK's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is SWK's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.2% | — |
| 2023 | 1.1% | Declining |
| 2024 | 5.0% | Rising |
| 2025 | 6.3% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 124.5%. FCF covers the dividend -4.3x. 42 consecutive years of payments.
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.1B | $15.4B | $16.9B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.4B | $0.3B | $1.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.7B | $0.8B | −$2.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 30.3% | 29.4% | 25.3% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our SWK analysis
SWK earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.59. Revenue estimate: $3.75B. Our current Fair Value: $89.42 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
SWK analyst consensus: 33% bullish (6 of 18 analysts)
1 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 11 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $89.44 (18.2% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $89.42.
SWK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK paid $0.8300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: D. Payout ratio: 124.5%.
SWK filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK beat EPS estimates by 9.9%
Reported EPS: $1.41 vs estimate $1.28. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $89.42 (18.1% above current price).
SWK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK paid $0.8300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: D. Payout ratio: 124.5%.
SWK beat EPS estimates by 20.0%
Reported EPS: $1.43 vs estimate $1.19. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $89.42 (18.1% above current price).
SWK filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK paid $0.8300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: D. Payout ratio: 124.5%.
SWK beat EPS estimates by 159.7%
Reported EPS: $1.08 vs estimate $0.42. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $89.42 (18.1% above current price).
SWK filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK paid $0.8200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: D. Payout ratio: 124.5%.
SWK beat EPS estimates by 13.8%
Reported EPS: $0.75 vs estimate $0.66. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $89.42 (18.1% above current price).
SWK filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK paid $0.8200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: D. Payout ratio: 124.5%.
SWK filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
SWK beat EPS estimates by 17.3%
Reported EPS: $1.49 vs estimate $1.27. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $89.42 (18.1% above current price).
SWK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
What is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. stock price today?
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) stock price is $75.70 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. do?
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. provides hand tools, power tools, outdoor products, and related accessories in the United States, Canada, Other Americas, Europe, and Asia. Its Tools & Outdoor segment offers professional grade corded and cordless electric power tools and equipment, including drills, impact wrenches and drivers, grinders, saws, routers, concrete prep and placement tools, and sanders; pneumatic tools and fasteners, such as nail guns, nails, staplers and staples, and concrete and masonry anchors; corded and cordless electric power tools; household power tools, hand-held vacuums, and small appliances; leveling and layout tools, planes, hammers, demolition tools, clamps, vises, knives, saws, chisels, and industrial and automotive tools; drill, screwdriver, router bits, abrasives, saw blades, and threading products; tool boxes, sawhorses, medical cabinets, and engineered storage solutions; and electric and gas-powered lawn and garden products.
What is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. market cap?
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. has a market capitalization of $11.76B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is SWK in?
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Tools & Accessories industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol SWK.
Is SWK stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. trades 15.3% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $89.42
- Current Price: $75.70
- Valuation Zone: Strong Buy Zone
What is SWK stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 14 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. is $89.44, implying upside of 18.2% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $120.15
- Analyst Low Target: $65.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): -0.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 12.1%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 1.0%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 16.6%
What are Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.1B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.4B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.7B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 30.3% | Rising |
What is SWK's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 28.6x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 12.4x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 24.3x
How volatile is SWK stock?
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. has a beta of 1.20, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. have?
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $280.1M
- Total Debt: $6.34B
- Net Cash Position: $-6.06B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. generated $854.7M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $971.2M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 4.3%
- Payout Ratio: 124.5%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 42
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -22.6%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: D
Is Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 2.02, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. scores 2.9/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is SWK's return on equity (ROE)?
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.'s return on equity is 4.5%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy SWK stock?
SWK shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol SWK
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is SWK a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.?
The current CEO of Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. is Mr. Christopher John Nelson.
What is SWK's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $2.65
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $6.11
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $5.24
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $6.11
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
SWK analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings