United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Is United Parcel Service, Inc. a safe investment right now?
United Parcel Service, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.97 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $91.66 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could United Parcel Service, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.97 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives UPS's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0469 | 1.2 | 0.06 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2757 | 1.4 | 0.39 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1119 | 3.3 | 0.37 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.5742 | 0.6 | 0.94 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.213 | 1.0 | 1.21 |
How has UPS's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.67 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.17 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.16 | Safe |
| 2025 | 2.97 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from UPS's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is United Parcel Service, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $6.74 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $6.56 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $7.01 | 28 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 16.1x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 13.6x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $112.64 (28 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does United Parcel Service, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up UPS's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is UPS's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 39.4% | — |
| 2023 | 23.6% | Declining |
| 2024 | 21.9% | Declining |
| 2025 | 20.3% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is United Parcel Service, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can United Parcel Service, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 100.0%. FCF covers the dividend 1.8x. 28 consecutive years of payments.
United Parcel Service, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $88.7B | $91.1B | $100.3B | Declining |
| Net Income | $5.6B | $5.8B | $11.5B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.8B | $6.2B | $9.3B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 18.1% | 18.0% | 20.9% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our UPS analysis
UPS earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.06. Revenue estimate: $21.00B. Our current Fair Value: $91.66 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
UPS analyst consensus: 43% bullish (13 of 30 analysts)
0 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 14 Hold, 1 Sell, 2 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $112.64 (7.0% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $91.66.
UPS filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
UPS paid $1.6400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 100.0%.
UPS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UPS beat EPS estimates by 8.1%
Reported EPS: $2.38 vs estimate $2.20. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $91.66 (13.0% below current price).
UPS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UPS paid $1.6400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 100.0%.
UPS filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
UPS beat EPS estimates by 33.9%
Reported EPS: $1.74 vs estimate $1.30. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $91.66 (13.0% below current price).
UPS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UPS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UPS paid $1.6400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 100.0%.
UPS filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
UPS missed EPS estimates by 1.0%
Reported EPS: $1.55 vs estimate $1.57. Our Fair Value of $91.66 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
UPS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UPS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UPS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UPS paid $1.6400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 100.0%.
UPS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UPS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UPS filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
UPS beat EPS estimates by 7.9%
Reported EPS: $1.49 vs estimate $1.38. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $91.66 (13.0% below current price).
UPS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UPS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
UPS filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
UPS paid $1.6400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 100.0%.
UPS beat EPS estimates by 8.6%
Reported EPS: $2.75 vs estimate $2.53. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $91.66 (13.0% below current price).
UPS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about United Parcel Service, Inc.
What is United Parcel Service, Inc. stock price today?
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) stock price is $105.30 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does United Parcel Service, Inc. do?
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package.
What is United Parcel Service, Inc. market cap?
United Parcel Service, Inc. has a market capitalization of $89.47B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is UPS in?
United Parcel Service, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol UPS.
Is UPS stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, United Parcel Service, Inc. trades 14.9% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $91.66
- Current Price: $105.30
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is UPS stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 28 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for United Parcel Service, Inc. is $112.64, implying upside of 7.0% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $135.00
- Analyst Low Target: $75.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is United Parcel Service, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for United Parcel Service, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 0.9%
- EPS growth (current year est.): -2.1%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 4.2%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 13.1%
What are United Parcel Service, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $88.7B | Declining |
| Net Income | $5.6B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.8B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 18.1% | Declining |
What is UPS's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 16.1x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 13.3x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 13.6x
How volatile is UPS stock?
United Parcel Service, Inc. has a beta of 1.10, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does United Parcel Service, Inc. have?
United Parcel Service, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $5.89B
- Total Debt: $28.59B
- Net Cash Position: $-22.70B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is United Parcel Service, Inc.'s free cash flow?
United Parcel Service, Inc. generated $5.19B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $8.45B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does United Parcel Service, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, United Parcel Service, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 6.2%
- Payout Ratio: 100.0%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 28
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -16.7%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is United Parcel Service, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
United Parcel Service, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 2.97, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does United Parcel Service, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
United Parcel Service, Inc. scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is UPS's return on equity (ROE)?
United Parcel Service, Inc.'s return on equity is 33.8%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy UPS stock?
UPS shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol UPS
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is UPS a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies United Parcel Service, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of United Parcel Service, Inc.?
The current CEO of United Parcel Service, Inc. is Ms. Carol B. Tome.
What is UPS's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $6.56
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $7.92
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $7.01
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $7.92
Other Industrials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
UPS analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings