American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Industrials · Airlines
Is American Airlines Group Inc. a safe investment right now?
American Airlines Group Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 0.66 places it in the distress zone. Our fair value estimate is $6.80 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.0/5 stars.
Could American Airlines Group Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 0.66 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives AAL's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.1989 | 1.2 | -0.24 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.109 | 1.4 | -0.15 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0309 | 3.3 | 0.1 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.1159 | 0.6 | 0.07 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.8844 | 1.0 | 0.88 |
How has AAL's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0.63 | Distress |
| 2023 | 0.74 | Distress |
| 2024 | 0.74 | Distress |
| 2025 | 0.66 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from AAL's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is American Airlines Group Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $0.17 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $0.17 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $-0.20 | 24 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 67.7x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $14.82 (24 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does American Airlines Group Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.0/5.
What makes up AAL's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is AAL's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 7.2% | — |
| 2023 | 11.8% | Rising |
| 2024 | 11.6% | Stable |
| 2025 | 7.3% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is American Airlines Group Inc.'s dividend safe?
American Airlines Group Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $54.6B | $54.2B | $49.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.1B | $0.8B | $0.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$1.8B | $0.8B | −$0.4B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 19.2% | 21.1% | 18.4% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our AAL analysis
AAL earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $-0.46. Revenue estimate: $13.75B. Our current Fair Value: $6.80 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
AAL analyst consensus: 50% bullish (13 of 26 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 12 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $14.82 (28.9% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $6.80.
AAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL missed EPS estimates by 54.6%
Reported EPS: $0.16 vs estimate $0.35. Our Fair Value of $6.80 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL beat EPS estimates by 38.2%
Reported EPS: $-0.17 vs estimate $-0.28. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $6.80 (40.9% below current price).
AAL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL beat EPS estimates by 16.7%
Reported EPS: $0.91 vs estimate $0.78. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $6.80 (40.9% below current price).
AAL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL beat EPS estimates by 11.7%
Reported EPS: $-0.59 vs estimate $-0.67. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $6.80 (40.9% below current price).
AAL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL beat EPS estimates by 40.0%
Reported EPS: $0.84 vs estimate $0.60. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $6.80 (40.9% below current price).
AAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about American Airlines Group Inc.
What is American Airlines Group Inc. stock price today?
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) stock price is $11.50 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does American Airlines Group Inc. do?
American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier in the United States, Latin America, Atlantic, and Pacific. It provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Doha, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. It also operates a mainline fleet of 1,013 aircraft.
What is American Airlines Group Inc. market cap?
American Airlines Group Inc. has a market capitalization of $7.59B, classifying it as a mid-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is AAL in?
American Airlines Group Inc. operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Airlines industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol AAL.
Is AAL stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, American Airlines Group Inc. trades 69.1% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $6.80
- Current Price: $11.50
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is AAL stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 24 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for American Airlines Group Inc. is $14.82, implying upside of 28.9% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $22.00
- Analyst Low Target: $10.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is American Airlines Group Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for American Airlines Group Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 11.8%
- EPS growth (current year est.): -156.3%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 4.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 1245.8%
What are American Airlines Group Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $54.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$1.8B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 19.2% | Stable |
What is AAL's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 67.7x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 5.0x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is AAL stock?
American Airlines Group Inc. has a beta of 1.25, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does American Airlines Group Inc. have?
American Airlines Group Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $6.47B
- Total Debt: $36.88B
- Net Cash Position: $-30.42B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is American Airlines Group Inc.'s free cash flow?
American Airlines Group Inc. generated $-706.8M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $3.10B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does American Airlines Group Inc. pay a dividend?
American Airlines Group Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is American Airlines Group Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
American Airlines Group Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 0.66, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does American Airlines Group Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
American Airlines Group Inc. scores 3.0/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
How do I buy AAL stock?
AAL shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol AAL
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is AAL a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies American Airlines Group Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of American Airlines Group Inc.?
The current CEO of American Airlines Group Inc. is Mr. Robert D. Isom Jr..
What is AAL's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $0.17
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $2.31
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $-0.20
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $2.32
Other Industrials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
AAL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings