Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Is Carrier Global Corporation a safe investment right now?
Carrier Global Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 2.61 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $65.27 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 3.0/5 stars.
Could Carrier Global Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.61 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives CARR's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0382 | 1.2 | 0.05 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3279 | 1.4 | 0.46 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0607 | 3.3 | 0.2 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.1982 | 0.6 | 1.32 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.5848 | 1.0 | 0.58 |
How has CARR's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.08 | Safe |
| 2023 | 2.83 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.67 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.61 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from CARR's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Carrier Global Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $2.14 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $1.72 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $2.77 | 23 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 35.9x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 30.5x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $71.03 (23 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Carrier Global Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.0/5.
What makes up CARR's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is CARR's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11.5% | — |
| 2023 | 10.0% | Declining |
| 2024 | 10.8% | Stable |
| 2025 | 8.8% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Carrier Global Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Carrier Global Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 53.2%. FCF covers the dividend 2.8x. 7 consecutive years of payments.
Carrier Global Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $21.7B | $22.5B | $17.3B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.5B | $5.6B | $3.5B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.1B | $0.0B | $1.4B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 25.9% | 26.6% | 24.9% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our CARR analysis
CARR earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.51. Revenue estimate: $5.00B. Our current Fair Value: $65.27 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
CARR analyst consensus: 58% bullish (15 of 26 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 11 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $71.03 (17.1% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $65.27.
CARR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CARR missed EPS estimates by 4.5%
Reported EPS: $0.34 vs estimate $0.36. Our Fair Value of $65.27 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
CARR filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CARR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CARR paid $0.2400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 53.2%.
CARR paid $0.2250/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 53.2%.
CARR beat EPS estimates by 17.7%
Reported EPS: $0.67 vs estimate $0.57. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $65.27 (7.6% above current price).
CARR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CARR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CARR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CARR beat EPS estimates by 1.9%
Reported EPS: $0.92 vs estimate $0.90. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $65.27 (7.6% above current price).
CARR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CARR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CARR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CARR paid $0.2250/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 53.2%.
CARR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CARR paid $0.2250/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 53.2%.
CARR beat EPS estimates by 17.6%
Reported EPS: $0.47 vs estimate $0.40. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $65.27 (7.6% above current price).
CARR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CARR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CARR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CARR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CARR beat EPS estimates by 11.4%
Reported EPS: $0.54 vs estimate $0.48. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $65.27 (7.6% above current price).
CARR filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CARR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CARR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Carrier Global Corporation
What is Carrier Global Corporation stock price today?
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) stock price is $60.65 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Carrier Global Corporation do?
Carrier Global Corporation provides intelligent climate and energy solutions in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Climate Solutions Americas; Climate Solutions Europe; Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa; and Climate Solutions Transportation. It provides air conditioners, heating systems, heat pumps, home and building energy management systems, automation systems, aftermarket components, and repair and maintenance and rental services, as well as modernization and upgrades to meet the heating, cooling, and ventilation needs of residential and commercial customers.
What is Carrier Global Corporation market cap?
Carrier Global Corporation has a market capitalization of $50.69B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is CARR in?
Carrier Global Corporation operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Building Products & Equipment industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol CARR.
Is CARR stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Carrier Global Corporation trades 7.1% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $65.27
- Current Price: $60.65
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is CARR stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 23 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Carrier Global Corporation is $71.03, implying upside of 17.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $90.00
- Analyst Low Target: $55.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Carrier Global Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Carrier Global Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 0.9%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 7.0%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 5.2%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 14.4%
What are Carrier Global Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $21.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.5B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 25.9% | Stable |
What is CARR's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 35.9x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 19.1x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 30.5x
How volatile is CARR stock?
Carrier Global Corporation has a beta of 1.32, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Carrier Global Corporation have?
Carrier Global Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.56B
- Total Debt: $12.39B
- Net Cash Position: $-10.84B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Carrier Global Corporation's free cash flow?
Carrier Global Corporation generated $1.01B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.51B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Carrier Global Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Carrier Global Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.5%
- Payout Ratio: 53.2%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 7
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -14.0%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Carrier Global Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Carrier Global Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 2.61, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Carrier Global Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Carrier Global Corporation scores 3.0/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is CARR's return on equity (ROE)?
Carrier Global Corporation's return on equity is 10.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy CARR stock?
CARR shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol CARR
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is CARR a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Carrier Global Corporation as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Carrier Global Corporation?
The current CEO of Carrier Global Corporation is Mr. David L. Gitlin.
What is CARR's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $1.69
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $3.17
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $2.77
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $3.17
Other Industrials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CARR analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings