Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Industrials · Trucking
Is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 26.64 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $191.07 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 26.64 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives ODFL's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0386 | 1.2 | 0.05 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.7414 | 1.4 | 1.04 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.2489 | 3.3 | 0.82 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 39.556 | 0.6 | 23.73 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.0048 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
How has ODFL's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 26.84 | Safe |
| 2023 | 25.13 | Safe |
| 2024 | 25.12 | Safe |
| 2025 | 26.64 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from ODFL's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $4.95 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $4.84 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $5.11 | 24 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 45.5x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 38.6x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $201.79 (24 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up ODFL's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is ODFL's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 49.1% | — |
| 2023 | 38.0% | Declining |
| 2024 | 36.2% | Declining |
| 2025 | 31.3% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 23.1%. FCF covers the dividend 6.8x. 10 consecutive years of payments.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.5B | $5.8B | $6.3B | Declining |
| Net Income | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.4B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.0B | $0.9B | $0.9B | Stable |
| Gross Margin | 33.0% | 34.8% | 36.0% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our ODFL analysis
ODFL earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.05. Revenue estimate: $1.31B. Our current Fair Value: $191.07 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
ODFL analyst consensus: 36% bullish (9 of 25 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 12 Hold, 4 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $201.79 (8.3% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $191.07.
ODFL paid $0.2900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 23.1%.
ODFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL beat EPS estimates by 2.9%
Reported EPS: $1.09 vs estimate $1.06. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $191.07 (13.1% below current price).
ODFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL paid $0.2800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 23.1%.
ODFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL beat EPS estimates by 5.2%
Reported EPS: $1.28 vs estimate $1.22. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $191.07 (13.1% below current price).
ODFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL paid $0.2800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 23.1%.
ODFL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL missed EPS estimates by 1.2%
Reported EPS: $1.27 vs estimate $1.29. Our Fair Value of $191.07 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ODFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL paid $0.2800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 23.1%.
ODFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL beat EPS estimates by 4.0%
Reported EPS: $1.19 vs estimate $1.14. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $191.07 (13.1% below current price).
ODFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL paid $0.2800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 23.1%.
ODFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ODFL beat EPS estimates by 5.9%
Reported EPS: $1.23 vs estimate $1.16. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $191.07 (13.1% below current price).
ODFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
What is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. stock price today?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) stock price is $219.98 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. do?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload motor carrier in the United States and North America. It offers regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services, as well as expedited transportation services.
What is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. market cap?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has a market capitalization of $45.85B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is ODFL in?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Trucking industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ODFL.
Is ODFL stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. trades 15.1% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $191.07
- Current Price: $219.98
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is ODFL stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 24 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is $201.79, implying downside of 8.3% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $232.00
- Analyst Low Target: $155.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 2.9%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 5.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 8.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 19.0%
What are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.5B | Declining |
| Net Income | $1.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.0B | Stable |
| Gross Margin | 33.0% | Declining |
What is ODFL's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 45.5x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 36.2x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 38.6x
How volatile is ODFL stock?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has a beta of 1.21, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. have?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $120.1M
- Total Debt: $141.4M
- Net Cash Position: $-21.3M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. generated $792.1M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.37B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.5%
- Payout Ratio: 23.1%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 10
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -6.2%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 26.64, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is ODFL's return on equity (ROE)?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s return on equity is 23.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy ODFL stock?
ODFL shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol ODFL
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is ODFL a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.?
The current CEO of Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is Mr. Kevin M. Freeman.
What is ODFL's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $4.84
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $6.08
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $5.11
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $6.08
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
ODFL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings