Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 6.53 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $479.28 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Ulta Beauty, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 6.53 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives ULTA's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1314 | 1.2 | 0.16 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2482 | 1.4 | 0.35 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.2213 | 3.3 | 0.73 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 5.8781 | 0.6 | 3.53 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.7706 | 1.0 | 1.77 |
How has ULTA's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7.74 | Safe |
| 2024 | 7.82 | Safe |
| 2025 | 7.56 | Safe |
| 2026 | 6.53 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from ULTA's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Ulta Beauty, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $25.63 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (4Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $25.34 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $28.53 | 24 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 22.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 18.7x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $676.21 (24 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Ulta Beauty, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up ULTA's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is ULTA's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 60.0% | — |
| 2024 | 60.0% | Stable |
| 2025 | 60.0% | Stable |
| 2026 | 54.0% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.4B | $11.3B | $10.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.2B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | $1.0B | $1.2B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 39.1% | 38.8% | 39.6% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our ULTA analysis
ULTA earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $6.86. Revenue estimate: $3.11B. Our current Fair Value: $479.28 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
ULTA analyst consensus: 67% bullish (18 of 27 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $676.21 (19.9% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $479.28.
ULTA filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA missed EPS estimates by 0.2%
Reported EPS: $8.01 vs estimate $8.03. Our Fair Value of $479.28 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ULTA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA beat EPS estimates by 11.7%
Reported EPS: $5.14 vs estimate $4.60. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $479.28 (15.0% below current price).
ULTA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA beat EPS estimates by 14.7%
Reported EPS: $5.78 vs estimate $5.04. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $479.28 (15.0% below current price).
ULTA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA beat EPS estimates by 15.5%
Reported EPS: $6.70 vs estimate $5.80. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $479.28 (15.0% below current price).
ULTA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA beat EPS estimates by 18.4%
Reported EPS: $8.46 vs estimate $7.15. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $479.28 (15.0% below current price).
ULTA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ULTA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Ulta Beauty, Inc.
What is Ulta Beauty, Inc. stock price today?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) stock price is $563.91 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Ulta Beauty, Inc. do?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a specialty beauty retailer in the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. It offers branded and private label beauty products, including cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, professional hair products, and salon styling tools through its Ulta Beauty stores, shop-in-shops, Ulta.com website, and its mobile applications.
What is Ulta Beauty, Inc. market cap?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. has a market capitalization of $24.66B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is ULTA in?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Specialty Retail industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ULTA.
Is ULTA stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Ulta Beauty, Inc. trades 17.7% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $479.28
- Current Price: $563.91
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is ULTA stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 24 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Ulta Beauty, Inc. is $676.21, implying upside of 19.9% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $810.00
- Analyst Low Target: $475.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Ulta Beauty, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 6.7%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 11.3%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 5.5%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 10.6%
What are Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.2B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 39.1% | Stable |
What is ULTA's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 22.0x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 17.9x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 18.7x
How volatile is ULTA stock?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. has a beta of 0.95, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Ulta Beauty, Inc. have?
Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $494.2M
- Total Debt: $2.18B
- Net Cash Position: $-1.69B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. generated $900.1M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.50B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Ulta Beauty, Inc. pay a dividend?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 6.53, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Ulta Beauty, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is ULTA's return on equity (ROE)?
Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s return on equity is 43.6%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy ULTA stock?
ULTA shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol ULTA
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is ULTA a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Ulta Beauty, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Ulta Beauty, Inc.?
The current CEO of Ulta Beauty, Inc. is Ms. Kecia L. Steelman.
What is ULTA's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $25.66
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $31.56
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $28.53
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $31.56
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
ULTA analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings