NIKE, Inc. (NKE) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Is NIKE, Inc. a safe investment right now?
NIKE, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 3.73 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $46.92 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could NIKE, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.73 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives NKE's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.3498 | 1.2 | 0.42 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.0199 | 1.4 | -0.03 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1012 | 3.3 | 0.33 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.8951 | 0.6 | 1.74 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.266 | 1.0 | 1.27 |
How has NKE's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.97 | Safe |
| 2023 | 4.17 | Safe |
| 2024 | 4.11 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.73 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from NKE's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is NIKE, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $1.84 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (3Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.16 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $1.50 | 33 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 30.1x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 25.5x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $62.37 (33 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does NIKE, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up NKE's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is NKE's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 27.0% | — |
| 2023 | 25.8% | Declining |
| 2024 | 27.0% | Rising |
| 2025 | 17.5% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is NIKE, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can NIKE, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 106.6%. FCF covers the dividend 2.4x. 40 consecutive years of payments.
NIKE, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $46.3B | $51.4B | $46.7B | Stable |
| Net Income | $3.2B | $5.7B | $6.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.3B | $6.6B | $4.4B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 42.7% | 44.6% | 46.0% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our NKE analysis
NKE earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.12. Revenue estimate: $10.84B. Our current Fair Value: $46.92 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
NKE analyst consensus: 46% bullish (18 of 39 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 19 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $62.37 (36.5% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $46.92.
NKE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE beat EPS estimates by 24.3%
Reported EPS: $0.35 vs estimate $0.28. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $46.92 (2.7% above current price).
NKE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE paid $0.4100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 106.6%.
NKE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE beat EPS estimates by 41.9%
Reported EPS: $0.53 vs estimate $0.37. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $46.92 (2.7% above current price).
NKE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE paid $0.4100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 106.6%.
NKE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE beat EPS estimates by 81.3%
Reported EPS: $0.49 vs estimate $0.27. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $46.92 (2.7% above current price).
NKE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE paid $0.4000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 106.6%.
NKE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE beat EPS estimates by 13.5%
Reported EPS: $0.14 vs estimate $0.12. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $46.92 (2.7% above current price).
NKE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE paid $0.4000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 106.6%.
NKE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE beat EPS estimates by 94.9%
Reported EPS: $0.54 vs estimate $0.28. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $46.92 (2.7% above current price).
NKE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NKE paid $0.4000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 106.6%.
NKE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about NIKE, Inc.
What is NIKE, Inc. stock price today?
NIKE, Inc. (NKE) stock price is $45.68 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does NIKE, Inc. do?
NIKE, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and sells athletic and casual footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories, and services for men, women, and kids in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Greater China, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. It offers its products under the NIKE, Jordan, Jumpman, Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell trademarks. It also provides a line of performance equipment and accessories, including bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment, and other equipment for sports activities, as well as various plastic products to other manufacturers; distributes and licenses casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories; and markets apparel with licensed college and professional team and league logos.
What is NIKE, Inc. market cap?
NIKE, Inc. has a market capitalization of $67.65B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is NKE in?
NIKE, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Footwear & Accessories industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol NKE.
Is NKE stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, NIKE, Inc. trades 2.6% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $46.92
- Current Price: $45.68
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is NKE stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 33 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for NIKE, Inc. is $62.37, implying upside of 36.5% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $120.00
- Analyst Low Target: $23.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is NIKE, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for NIKE, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): -0.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): -30.4%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 1.0%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 25.8%
What are NIKE, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $46.3B | Stable |
| Net Income | $3.2B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.3B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 42.7% | Declining |
What is NKE's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 30.1x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 24.3x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 25.5x
How volatile is NKE stock?
NIKE, Inc. has a beta of 1.32, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does NIKE, Inc. have?
NIKE, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $8.06B
- Total Debt: $11.18B
- Net Cash Position: $-3.12B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is NIKE, Inc.'s free cash flow?
NIKE, Inc. generated $1.31B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.69B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does NIKE, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, NIKE, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 3.5%
- Payout Ratio: 106.6%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 40
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -18.4%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is NIKE, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
NIKE, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 3.73, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does NIKE, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
NIKE, Inc. scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is NKE's return on equity (ROE)?
NIKE, Inc.'s return on equity is 16.0%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy NKE stock?
NKE shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol NKE
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is NKE a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies NIKE, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of NIKE, Inc.?
The current CEO of NIKE, Inc. is Mr. Elliott J. Hill.
What is NKE's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $1.52
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $1.88
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $1.50
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $1.89
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
NKE analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings