FairValueLabs Valuation System Value Investment
NKE

NIKE, Inc. (NKE) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating

NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories

$45.68 Watch Zone -0.71 (-1.5%) As of Apr 22, 2026 Not a buy/sell recommendation. See disclaimer.
Overall Verdict Caution
3.73
Altman Z-ScoreSafe Zone
$46.92
Fair ValueWatch Zone (2.6%)
3.1
Moat RatingNarrow moat
TL;DR · Audit Summary

Is NIKE, Inc. a safe investment right now?

NIKE, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 3.73 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $46.92 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.

Price Chart · NKE
Section 01 · Financial Health

Could NIKE, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis

3.73

Z-Score of 3.73 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.

  • Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
  • 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
  • Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)

What drives NKE's Z-Score?

Altman Z-Score components for NKE
ComponentFormulaValueWeightContribution
A · Working Capital / Total AssetsWC / TA0.34981.20.42
B · Retained Earnings / Total AssetsRE / TA-0.01991.4-0.03
C · EBIT / Total AssetsEBIT / TA0.10123.30.33
D · Market Cap / Total LiabilitiesMCap / TL2.89510.61.74
E · Revenue / Total AssetsRev / TA1.2661.01.27

How has NKE's financial health changed over time?

3.0 Safe1.8 Distress0.01.22.43.64.82022202320242025
NKE Z-Score history
YearZ-ScoreZone
20223.97Safe
20234.17Safe
20244.11Safe
20253.73Safe

Source: Calculated from NKE's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.

Section 02 · Fair Value Estimate

What is NIKE, Inc. actually worth?

FVL Fair Value$46.92
vs
Market Price$45.68
Watch Zone 2.6% Stock trades 2.6% below our estimated fair value of $46.92.

How we calculated this

FVL Valuation Model
InputValueSource
Predicted EPS (α)$1.84Proprietary blend of reported actuals (3Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α
Last Year EPS$2.16Annual report (SEC EDGAR)
Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year)$1.5033 analysts consensus
Trailing P/E30.1xCurrent market pricing
Fair P/E (β discount)25.5xTrailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped
Earnings Trend (γ)AcceleratingDirectional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS

Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $62.37 (33 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.

Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.

Section 03 · Competitive Moat

Does NIKE, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?

★★★☆☆
Narrow moat

Moat rating: 3.1/5.

What makes up NKE's moat score?

ROIC Stability

★★★★☆

ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.

Gross Margin Trend

★★☆☆☆

Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.

Switching Costs

★★★☆☆

Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.

How stable is NKE's return on invested capital?

0%-5%4%14%23%32%2022202320242025
NKE ROIC history
YearROICTrend
202227.0%
202325.8%Declining
202427.0%Rising
202517.5%Declining

Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.

Section 04 · Dividend Safety

Is NIKE, Inc.'s dividend safe?

B Dividend Safety Grade
Yield3.5%
Payout Ratio106.6%
Consecutive Years40
5Y Growth Rate-18.4%

Can NIKE, Inc. afford its dividend?

Payout ratio is 106.6%. FCF covers the dividend 2.4x. 40 consecutive years of payments.

Section 05 · Financial Summary

NIKE, Inc.'s key financial metrics

NKE financial summary
MetricLatest1Y Ago3Y AgoTrend
Revenue $46.3B $51.4B $46.7B Stable
Net Income $3.2B $5.7B $6.0B Declining
Free Cash Flow $3.3B $6.6B $4.4B Declining
Gross Margin 42.7% 44.6% 46.0% Declining
Section 06 · Lab Signals

Recent events that affect our NKE analysis

EARNINGS

NKE earnings report scheduled

Lab Impact

Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.12. Revenue estimate: $10.84B. Our current Fair Value: $46.92 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.

ANALYST

NKE analyst consensus: 46% bullish (18 of 39 analysts)

Lab Impact

3 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 19 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $62.37 (36.5% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $46.92.

FILING

NKE filed quarterly report (10-Q)

Lab Impact

Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →

EARNINGS

NKE beat EPS estimates by 24.3%

Lab Impact

Reported EPS: $0.35 vs estimate $0.28. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $46.92 (2.7% above current price).

FILING

NKE filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

NKE filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

NKE filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

DIVIDEND

NKE paid $0.4100/share dividend

Lab Impact

Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 106.6%.

FILING

NKE filed quarterly report (10-Q)

Lab Impact

Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →

EARNINGS

NKE beat EPS estimates by 41.9%

Lab Impact

Reported EPS: $0.53 vs estimate $0.37. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $46.92 (2.7% above current price).

FILING

NKE filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

NKE filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

DIVIDEND

NKE paid $0.4100/share dividend

Lab Impact

Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 106.6%.

FILING

NKE filed quarterly report (10-Q)

Lab Impact

Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →

EARNINGS

NKE beat EPS estimates by 81.3%

Lab Impact

Reported EPS: $0.49 vs estimate $0.27. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $46.92 (2.7% above current price).

FILING

NKE filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

NKE filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

DIVIDEND

NKE paid $0.4000/share dividend

Lab Impact

Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 106.6%.

FILING

NKE filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

NKE filed annual report (10-K)

Lab Impact

Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →

EARNINGS

NKE beat EPS estimates by 13.5%

Lab Impact

Reported EPS: $0.14 vs estimate $0.12. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $46.92 (2.7% above current price).

FILING

NKE filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

NKE filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

NKE filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

DIVIDEND

NKE paid $0.4000/share dividend

Lab Impact

Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 106.6%.

FILING

NKE filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

NKE filed quarterly report (10-Q)

Lab Impact

Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →

EARNINGS

NKE beat EPS estimates by 94.9%

Lab Impact

Reported EPS: $0.54 vs estimate $0.28. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $46.92 (2.7% above current price).

FILING

NKE filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

FILING

NKE filed 8-K (material event)

Lab Impact

8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →

DIVIDEND

NKE paid $0.4000/share dividend

Lab Impact

Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 106.6%.

FILING

NKE filed quarterly report (10-Q)

Lab Impact

Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →

Section 07 · FAQ

Common questions about NIKE, Inc.

What is NIKE, Inc. stock price today?

NIKE, Inc. (NKE) stock price is $45.68 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.

What does NIKE, Inc. do?

NIKE, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and sells athletic and casual footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories, and services for men, women, and kids in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Greater China, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. It offers its products under the NIKE, Jordan, Jumpman, Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell trademarks. It also provides a line of performance equipment and accessories, including bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment, and other equipment for sports activities, as well as various plastic products to other manufacturers; distributes and licenses casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories; and markets apparel with licensed college and professional team and league logos.

What is NIKE, Inc. market cap?

NIKE, Inc. has a market capitalization of $67.65B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

What sector and industry is NKE in?

NIKE, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Footwear & Accessories industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol NKE.

Is NKE stock overvalued or undervalued?

Based on our valuation model, NIKE, Inc. trades 2.6% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.

  • FairValueLabs Fair Value: $46.92
  • Current Price: $45.68
  • Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is NKE stock forecast and analyst target price?

Based on 33 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for NIKE, Inc. is $62.37, implying upside of 36.5% from the current price.

  • Analyst High Target: $120.00
  • Analyst Low Target: $23.00

Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.

Is NIKE, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?

Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for NIKE, Inc.:

  • Revenue growth (current year est.): -0.1%
  • EPS growth (current year est.): -30.4%
  • Revenue growth (next year est.): 1.0%
  • EPS growth (next year est.): 25.8%
What are NIKE, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
MetricLatestTrend
Revenue$46.3BStable
Net Income$3.2BDeclining
Free Cash Flow$3.3BDeclining
Gross Margin42.7%Declining
What is NKE's P/E ratio?

The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:

  • Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 30.1x
  • Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 24.3x
  • FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 25.5x
How volatile is NKE stock?

NIKE, Inc. has a beta of 1.32, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.

How much cash and debt does NIKE, Inc. have?

NIKE, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:

  • Total Cash: $8.06B
  • Total Debt: $11.18B
  • Net Cash Position: $-3.12B

A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.

What is NIKE, Inc.'s free cash flow?

NIKE, Inc. generated $1.31B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.69B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.

Does NIKE, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?

Yes, NIKE, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:

  • Dividend Yield: 3.5%
  • Payout Ratio: 106.6%
  • Consecutive Years Paid: 40
  • 5-Year Dividend Growth: -18.4%
  • FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is NIKE, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?

NIKE, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 3.73, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.

Does NIKE, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?

NIKE, Inc. scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:

  • ROIC Stability: 4/5
  • Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
  • Switching Costs: 3/5

A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.

What is NKE's return on equity (ROE)?

NIKE, Inc.'s return on equity is 16.0%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.

How do I buy NKE stock?

NKE shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:

  1. Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
  2. Search for ticker symbol NKE
  3. Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares

This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.

Is NKE a value stock or speculative?

FairValueLabs classifies NIKE, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.

Who is the CEO of NIKE, Inc.?

The current CEO of NIKE, Inc. is Mr. Elliott J. Hill.

What is NKE's earnings per share (EPS)?

Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:

  • Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $1.52
  • Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $1.88
  • Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $1.50
  • Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $1.89

FairValueLabs Disclaimer

All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.

This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.

NKE analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings