The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
Is The TJX Companies, Inc. a safe investment right now?
The TJX Companies, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 6.93 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $137.39 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could The TJX Companies, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 6.93 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives TJX's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0515 | 1.2 | 0.06 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2638 | 1.4 | 0.37 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.2061 | 3.3 | 0.68 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 6.8802 | 0.6 | 4.13 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.6879 | 1.0 | 1.69 |
How has TJX's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7.49 | Safe |
| 2024 | 7.6 | Safe |
| 2025 | 7.4 | Safe |
| 2026 | 6.93 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from TJX's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is The TJX Companies, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $4.96 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $4.87 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $5.10 | 18 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 32.5x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 27.7x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $171.78 (18 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does The TJX Companies, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up TJX's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is TJX's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 47.3% | — |
| 2024 | 55.8% | Rising |
| 2025 | 58.2% | Rising |
| 2026 | 56.5% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is The TJX Companies, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can The TJX Companies, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 33.9%. FCF covers the dividend 2.0x. 40 consecutive years of payments.
The TJX Companies, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $60.4B | $56.4B | $49.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $5.5B | $4.9B | $3.5B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.9B | $4.2B | $2.6B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 31.0% | 30.6% | 27.6% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our TJX analysis
TJX earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.01. Revenue estimate: $13.96B. Our current Fair Value: $137.39 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
TJX analyst consensus: 90% bullish (18 of 20 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 1 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $171.78 (8.4% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $137.39.
TJX filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
TJX beat EPS estimates by 14.1%
Reported EPS: $1.58 vs estimate $1.38. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $137.39 (13.3% below current price).
TJX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TJX paid $0.4250/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 33.9%.
TJX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TJX beat EPS estimates by 5.0%
Reported EPS: $1.28 vs estimate $1.22. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $137.39 (13.3% below current price).
TJX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TJX paid $0.4250/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 33.9%.
TJX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TJX beat EPS estimates by 8.4%
Reported EPS: $1.10 vs estimate $1.01. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $137.39 (13.3% below current price).
TJX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TJX paid $0.4250/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 33.9%.
TJX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TJX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TJX beat EPS estimates by 0.8%
Reported EPS: $0.92 vs estimate $0.91. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $137.39 (13.3% below current price).
TJX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TJX paid $0.4250/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 33.9%.
TJX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TJX filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
TJX beat EPS estimates by 5.5%
Reported EPS: $1.23 vs estimate $1.17. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $137.39 (13.3% below current price).
TJX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TJX paid $0.3750/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 33.9%.
TJX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about The TJX Companies, Inc.
What is The TJX Companies, Inc. stock price today?
The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) stock price is $158.47 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does The TJX Companies, Inc. do?
The TJX Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer worldwide. It operates through four segments: Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International. It provides family apparel comprising footwear; accessories, such as beauty and jewelry; home fashion products, including home basics, decorative accessories and giftware, as well as furniture, rugs, lighting, soft home, decorative accessories, tabletop, and cookware; pet and gourmet food; and other merchandise.
What is The TJX Companies, Inc. market cap?
The TJX Companies, Inc. has a market capitalization of $175.98B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is TJX in?
The TJX Companies, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Apparel Retail industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol TJX.
Is TJX stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, The TJX Companies, Inc. trades 15.3% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $137.39
- Current Price: $158.47
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is TJX stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 18 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for The TJX Companies, Inc. is $171.78, implying upside of 8.4% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $193.00
- Analyst Low Target: $100.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is The TJX Companies, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for The TJX Companies, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 5.8%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 4.7%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 5.8%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 11.1%
What are The TJX Companies, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $60.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $5.5B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.9B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 31.0% | Rising |
What is TJX's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 32.5x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 28.0x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 27.7x
How volatile is TJX stock?
The TJX Companies, Inc. has a beta of 0.73, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does The TJX Companies, Inc. have?
The TJX Companies, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $6.23B
- Total Debt: $13.49B
- Net Cash Position: $-7.26B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is The TJX Companies, Inc.'s free cash flow?
The TJX Companies, Inc. generated $3.89B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $6.87B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does The TJX Companies, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, The TJX Companies, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.1%
- Payout Ratio: 33.9%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 40
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -16.4%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is The TJX Companies, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
The TJX Companies, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 6.93, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does The TJX Companies, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
The TJX Companies, Inc. scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is TJX's return on equity (ROE)?
The TJX Companies, Inc.'s return on equity is 59.1%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy TJX stock?
TJX shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol TJX
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is TJX a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies The TJX Companies, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of The TJX Companies, Inc.?
The current CEO of The TJX Companies, Inc. is Mr. Ernie L. Herrman.
What is TJX's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $4.87
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $5.67
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $5.10
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $5.67
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
TJX analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings