Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation a safe investment right now?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 13.06 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $100.36 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could Deckers Outdoor Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 13.06 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives DECK's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.5855 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.6464 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.3492 | 3.3 | 1.15 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 14.8455 | 0.6 | 8.91 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.3964 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
How has DECK's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 15.46 | Safe |
| 2023 | 15.72 | Safe |
| 2024 | 13.07 | Safe |
| 2025 | 13.06 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from DECK's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Deckers Outdoor Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $7.72 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (3Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $6.33 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $6.89 | 21 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 15.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 13.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $128.76 (21 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Deckers Outdoor Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up DECK's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is DECK's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 36.8% | — |
| 2023 | 37.9% | Rising |
| 2024 | 46.6% | Rising |
| 2025 | 49.6% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation's dividend safe?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.0B | $4.3B | $3.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.0B | $0.8B | $0.5B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.0B | $0.9B | $0.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 57.9% | 55.6% | 51.0% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our DECK analysis
DECK earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.83. Revenue estimate: $1.09B. Our current Fair Value: $100.36 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
DECK analyst consensus: 44% bullish (11 of 25 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, 11 Hold, 1 Sell, 2 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $128.76 (19.6% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $100.36.
DECK filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DECK beat EPS estimates by 20.4%
Reported EPS: $3.33 vs estimate $2.77. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $100.36 (6.8% below current price).
DECK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DECK filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DECK beat EPS estimates by 15.1%
Reported EPS: $1.82 vs estimate $1.58. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $100.36 (6.8% below current price).
DECK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DECK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DECK filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DECK beat EPS estimates by 36.7%
Reported EPS: $0.93 vs estimate $0.68. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $100.36 (6.8% below current price).
DECK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DECK filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
DECK beat EPS estimates by 65.1%
Reported EPS: $1.00 vs estimate $0.61. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $100.36 (6.8% below current price).
DECK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DECK filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DECK beat EPS estimates by 14.8%
Reported EPS: $3.00 vs estimate $2.61. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $100.36 (6.8% below current price).
DECK filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Deckers Outdoor Corporation
What is Deckers Outdoor Corporation stock price today?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) stock price is $107.69 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Deckers Outdoor Corporation do?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, markets, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual lifestyle use and high-performance activities in the United States and internationally. It offers premium footwear, apparel, and accessories under the UGG brand name; footwear, such as running, trail, hiking, fitness, and lifestyle shoes, as well as apparel and accessories under the HOKA brand name; and sandals, shoes, and boots under the Teva brand name. It also provides a casual footwear fashion line under the Koolaburra brand name; and footwear products under the AHNU brand name.
What is Deckers Outdoor Corporation market cap?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation has a market capitalization of $15.70B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is DECK in?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Footwear & Accessories industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol DECK.
Is DECK stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Deckers Outdoor Corporation trades 7.3% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $100.36
- Current Price: $107.69
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is DECK stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 21 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Deckers Outdoor Corporation is $128.76, implying upside of 19.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $184.00
- Analyst Low Target: $90.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Deckers Outdoor Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 9.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 8.8%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 7.1%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 6.5%
What are Deckers Outdoor Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.0B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 57.9% | Rising |
What is DECK's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 15.3x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 14.7x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 13.0x
How volatile is DECK stock?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation has a beta of 1.21, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Deckers Outdoor Corporation have?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.09B
- Total Debt: $342.9M
- Net Cash Position: $1.74B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Deckers Outdoor Corporation's free cash flow?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation generated $758.7M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.01B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Deckers Outdoor Corporation pay a dividend?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 13.06, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Deckers Outdoor Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is DECK's return on equity (ROE)?
Deckers Outdoor Corporation's return on equity is 39.7%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy DECK stock?
DECK shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol DECK
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is DECK a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Deckers Outdoor Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Deckers Outdoor Corporation?
The current CEO of Deckers Outdoor Corporation is Mr. Stefano Caroti.
What is DECK's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $7.04
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $7.34
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $6.89
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $7.34
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
DECK analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings