Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Is Starbucks Corporation a safe investment right now?
Starbucks Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 2.7 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $66.80 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Starbucks Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.7 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives SBUX's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0883 | 1.2 | -0.11 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.2584 | 1.4 | -0.36 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0953 | 3.3 | 0.31 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.8269 | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.1613 | 1.0 | 1.16 |
How has SBUX's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.05 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.28 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.08 | Safe |
| 2025 | 2.7 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from SBUX's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Starbucks Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $1.67 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $1.63 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $2.28 | 34 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 82.9x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $100.68 (34 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Starbucks Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up SBUX's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is SBUX's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 60.0% | — |
| 2023 | 60.0% | Stable |
| 2024 | 60.0% | Stable |
| 2025 | 38.2% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Starbucks Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Starbucks Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 204.2%. FCF covers the dividend 1.1x. 17 consecutive years of payments.
Starbucks Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $37.2B | $36.2B | $32.3B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.9B | $3.8B | $3.3B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.4B | $3.3B | $2.6B | Stable |
| Gross Margin | 22.8% | 26.8% | 26.0% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our SBUX analysis
SBUX earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.44. Revenue estimate: $9.22B. Our current Fair Value: $66.80 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
SBUX analyst consensus: 44% bullish (17 of 39 analysts)
5 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 18 Hold, 2 Sell, 2 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $100.68 (1.2% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $66.80.
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX paid $0.6200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 204.2%.
SBUX missed EPS estimates by 4.6%
Reported EPS: $0.56 vs estimate $0.59. Our Fair Value of $66.80 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
SBUX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX paid $0.6200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 204.2%.
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX missed EPS estimates by 6.5%
Reported EPS: $0.52 vs estimate $0.56. Our Fair Value of $66.80 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX paid $0.6100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 204.2%.
SBUX missed EPS estimates by 22.5%
Reported EPS: $0.50 vs estimate $0.65. Our Fair Value of $66.80 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
SBUX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX paid $0.6100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 204.2%.
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX missed EPS estimates by 15.2%
Reported EPS: $0.41 vs estimate $0.48. Our Fair Value of $66.80 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
SBUX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX paid $0.6100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 204.2%.
SBUX beat EPS estimates by 3.5%
Reported EPS: $0.69 vs estimate $0.67. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $66.80 (32.9% below current price).
SBUX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SBUX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Starbucks Corporation
What is Starbucks Corporation stock price today?
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) stock price is $99.52 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Starbucks Corporation do?
Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee internationally. It operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee, tea, and other beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, complementary food, packaged coffees, single-serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items.
What is Starbucks Corporation market cap?
Starbucks Corporation has a market capitalization of $113.38B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is SBUX in?
Starbucks Corporation operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Restaurants industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol SBUX.
Is SBUX stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Starbucks Corporation trades 49.0% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $66.80
- Current Price: $99.52
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is SBUX stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 34 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Starbucks Corporation is $100.68, implying upside of 1.2% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $122.00
- Analyst Low Target: $74.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Starbucks Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Starbucks Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): -0.3%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 7.0%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 2.1%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 27.7%
What are Starbucks Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $37.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.9B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.4B | Stable |
| Gross Margin | 22.8% | Declining |
What is SBUX's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 82.9x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 34.2x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is SBUX stock?
Starbucks Corporation has a beta of 0.94, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Starbucks Corporation have?
Starbucks Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $3.60B
- Total Debt: $25.49B
- Net Cash Position: $-21.89B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Starbucks Corporation's free cash flow?
Starbucks Corporation generated $-1.44B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $4.27B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Starbucks Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Starbucks Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.5%
- Payout Ratio: 204.2%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 17
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -19.6%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: C
Is Starbucks Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Starbucks Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 2.70, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Starbucks Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Starbucks Corporation scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
How do I buy SBUX stock?
SBUX shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol SBUX
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is SBUX a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Starbucks Corporation as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Starbucks Corporation?
The current CEO of Starbucks Corporation is Mr. Brian R. Niccol.
What is SBUX's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $1.20
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $2.91
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $2.28
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $2.91
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
SBUX analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings