MGM Resorts International (MGM) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
Is MGM Resorts International a safe investment right now?
MGM Resorts International's Altman Z-Score of 0.74 places it in the distress zone. Our fair value estimate is $30.00 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could MGM Resorts International go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 0.74 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives MGM's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0198 | 1.2 | 0.02 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.0509 | 1.4 | 0.07 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0169 | 3.3 | 0.06 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.2817 | 0.6 | 0.17 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4239 | 1.0 | 0.42 |
How has MGM's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0.8 | Distress |
| 2023 | 0.87 | Distress |
| 2024 | 0.83 | Distress |
| 2025 | 0.74 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from MGM's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is MGM Resorts International actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $0.75 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (4Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $0.76 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $1.85 | 18 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 51.6x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $42.83 (18 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does MGM Resorts International have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up MGM's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is MGM's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11.1% | — |
| 2023 | 19.0% | Rising |
| 2024 | 16.6% | Declining |
| 2025 | 8.1% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is MGM Resorts International's dividend safe?
MGM Resorts International's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.5B | $17.2B | $13.1B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.2B | $0.7B | $1.5B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B | $1.2B | $1.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 44.4% | 45.5% | 49.3% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our MGM analysis
MGM earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.51. Revenue estimate: $4.37B. Our current Fair Value: $30.00 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
MGM analyst consensus: 45% bullish (10 of 22 analysts)
1 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, 9 Hold, 3 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $42.83 (9.1% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $30.00.
MGM beat EPS estimates by 209.1%
Reported EPS: $1.60 vs estimate $0.52. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $30.00 (23.5% below current price).
MGM missed EPS estimates by 19.9%
Reported EPS: $0.24 vs estimate $0.30. Our Fair Value of $30.00 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
MGM missed EPS estimates by 72.0%
Reported EPS: $0.18 vs estimate $0.64. Our Fair Value of $30.00 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
MGM beat EPS estimates by 54.3%
Reported EPS: $0.69 vs estimate $0.45. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $30.00 (23.5% below current price).
MGM beat EPS estimates by 33.0%
Reported EPS: $0.45 vs estimate $0.34. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $30.00 (23.5% below current price).
Common questions about MGM Resorts International
What is MGM Resorts International stock price today?
MGM Resorts International (MGM) stock price is $39.24 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does MGM Resorts International do?
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital. It operates casino resorts that offer gaming, hotel, convention, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities, as well as online/digital games through its online platforms.
What is MGM Resorts International market cap?
MGM Resorts International has a market capitalization of $10.73B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is MGM in?
MGM Resorts International operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Resorts & Casinos industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol MGM.
Is MGM stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, MGM Resorts International trades 30.8% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $30.00
- Current Price: $39.24
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is MGM stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 18 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for MGM Resorts International is $42.83, implying upside of 9.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $62.00
- Analyst Low Target: $30.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is MGM Resorts International revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for MGM Resorts International:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 0.8%
- EPS growth (current year est.): -44.1%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 1.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 25.7%
What are MGM Resorts International's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.2B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 44.4% | Declining |
What is MGM's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 51.6x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 17.0x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is MGM stock?
MGM Resorts International has a beta of 1.35, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does MGM Resorts International have?
MGM Resorts International's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.27B
- Total Debt: $31.55B
- Net Cash Position: $-29.28B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is MGM Resorts International's free cash flow?
MGM Resorts International generated $478.0M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.53B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does MGM Resorts International pay a dividend?
MGM Resorts International does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is MGM Resorts International at risk of going bankrupt?
MGM Resorts International's Altman Z-Score is 0.74, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does MGM Resorts International have a durable competitive advantage?
MGM Resorts International scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is MGM's return on equity (ROE)?
MGM Resorts International's return on equity is 14.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy MGM stock?
MGM shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol MGM
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is MGM a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies MGM Resorts International as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of MGM Resorts International?
The current CEO of MGM Resorts International is Mr. William Joseph Hornbuckle IV.
What is MGM's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $0.76
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $2.31
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $1.85
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $2.32
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
MGM analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings